Copper price discussion/analysis

[MARKETWAVES]

COPPER ............

ANY COMMENTS ?



TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[DTM]

Re: COPPER.....(any comments ? )

Copper looks set for a correction on the monthly charts. Weekly and Daily charts read the same for me.

 

[metric]

Copper price discussion

ive said for months copper was going to skyrocket. not my research, but reinhardts...

of course, it was poo, poo'd. but its seems it may now be right?

what is the reason?

well reinhardt said invest in war commodities. and that still is poo, poo'd.

but copper is looking good. pure coincidence.....right?


.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: copper looking good

LOL

ive said for months copper was going to skyrocket

 

[metric]

Re: copper looking good

LOL

reinhardt became 'known' on sept 15th 2008. i became aware of him and his site a few weeks after that....so on your little chart, i started listening at the bottom.....


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[Gundini]

Re: Copper looking good

Silly TH, you put the chart upside down!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: copper looking good

reinhardt became 'known' on sept 15th 2008. i became aware of him and his site a few weeks after that....so on your little chart, i started listening at the bottom.....


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BLIND!

that was exactly when the 5 year trend broke. very good contrarian indicator.

 

[metric]

Re: Copper price discussion

on your little chart it says copper bottomed about november?

dammit....missed the bottom by a few days....





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[nunthewiser]

Re: Copper price discussion

on your little chart it says copper bottomed about november?

dammit....missed the bottom by a few days....





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ROFLMAO!!!!.


hahahahahahahah

no offense intended

but m8 .. um i dont think it matters that you missed the bottom . the fact that you told ppl (or he ) to buy at nr on the TOP .BEFORE it crashed is a bit of a worry

never let the facts get in the way of a good story my uncle chopper used to say

 

[metric]

Re: Copper price discussion

no. reinhardt started saying it AFTER SEPT 15TH 2008.... so looking at the chart.....it was nearly bottom....uuuuhhhh....

a four year bottom...
.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Copper price discussion

Like I said metric you are BLIND!!

 

[metric]

Re: Copper price discussion

i said reinhardt became known after sept 15th......

since then he has stated war commodities are what to invest in. copper being one of them. i dont know exactly what date he said so, but it was some weeks AFTER SEPT 15. it may have been november....or december?

we shall see if war commodities rise eh?


.

 

[Phillip]

Re: Copper price discussion

I think copper requires more sideways action. War commodity or not, the Chinese govt will need to replenish their warehouse stocks soon when their economic stimuli plan begins to kick in about June-July. I see no real war, commodity warehouse stocks are sky hi and priced very cheaply at inflation standards....no one is buying!

 

[Sean K]

Re: Copper price discussion

Cripes, another Reinhardt thread disguised as something to discuss.



You can't even access his site unless you click some 'buy here' button between a chicks legs.

 

[metric]

Re: Copper price discussion

a copper standard...? or war preparation?

A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system?
Hard money enthusiasts have long watched for signs that China is switching its foreign reserves from US Treasury bonds into gold bullion. They may have been eyeing the wrong metal.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:41PM BST 16 Apr 2009

Comments 17 | Comment on this article

China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has instead been buying copper and other industrial metals over recent months on a scale that appears to go beyond the usual rebuilding of stocks for commercial reasons.

Nobu Su, head of Taiwan's TMT group, which ships commodities to China, said Beijing is trying to extricate itself from dollar dependency as fast as it can.



A world currency moves nearer after Tim Geithner's slip"China has woken up. The West is a black hole with all this money being printed. The Chinese are buying raw materials because it is a much better way to use their $1.9 trillion of reserves. They get ten times the impact, and can cover their infrastructure for 50 years."

"The next industrial revolution is going to be led by hybrid cars, and that needs copper. You can see the subtle way that China is moving into 30 or 40 countries with resources," he said.

The SRB has also been accumulating aluminium, zinc, nickel, and rarer metals such as titanium, indium (thin-film technology), rhodium (catalytic converters) and praseodymium (glass).

While it makes sense for China to take advantage of last year's commodity crash to restock cheaply, there is clearly more behind the move. "They are definitely buying metals to diversify out of US Treasuries and dollar holdings," said Jim Lennon, head of commodities at Macquarie Bank.

John Reade, metals chief at UBS, said Beijing may have a made strategic decision to stockpile metal as an alternative to foreign bonds. "We're very surprised by Chinese demand. They are buying much more copper than they will need this year. If this is strategic, there may be no effective limit on the purchases as China's pockets are deep."

Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, piqued the interest of metal buffs last month by calling for a world currency modelled on the "Bancor", floated by John Maynard Keynes at Bretton Woods in 1944.

The Bancor was to be anchored on 30 commodities - a broader base than the Gold Standard, which had caused so much grief in the 1930s. Mr Zhou said such a currency would prevent the sort of "credit-based" excess that has brought the global finance to its knees.

If his thoughts reflect Communist Party thinking, it would explain the bizarre moves in commodity markets over recent weeks. Copper prices have surged 49pc this year to $4,925 a tonne despite estimates by the CRU copper group that world demand will fall 15pc to 20pc this year as construction wilts.

Analysts say "short covering" by funds betting on price falls has played a role. But the jump is largely due to Chinese imports, which reached a record 329,000 tonnes in February, and a further 375,000 tonnes in March. Chinese industrial demand cannot explain this. China has been badly hit by global recession. Its exports - almost half GDP - fell 17pc in March.

While Beijing's fiscal stimulus package and credit expansion has helped lift demand, China faces a property downturn of its own. One government adviser warned this week that house prices could fall 50pc.

One thing is clear: Beijing suspects that the US Federal Reserve is engineering a covert default on America's debt by printing money. Premier Wen Jiabao issued a blunt warning last month that China was tiring of US bonds. "We have lent a huge amount of money to the US, so of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," he said.

This is slightly disingenuous. China has the world's largest reserves - $1.95 trillion, mostly in dollars - because it has been holding down the yuan to boost exports. This mercantilist strategy has reached its limits.

The beauty of recycling China's surplus into metals instead of US bonds is that it kills so many birds with one stone: it stops the yuan rising, without provoking complaints of currency manipulation by Washington; metals are easily stored in warehouses, unlike oil; the holdings are likely to rise in value over time since the earth's crust is gradually depleting its accessible ores. Above all, such a policy safeguards China's industrial revolution, while the West may one day face a supply crisis.

Beijing may yet buy gold as well, although it has not done so yet. The gold share of reserves has fallen to 1pc, far below the historic norm in Asia. But if a metal-based currency ever emerges to end the reign of fiat paper, it is just as likely to be a "Copper Standard" as a "Gold Standard".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-Standard-for-the-worlds-currency-system.html

 

[LeeTV]

Re: Copper price discussion

China Copper Imports Drop for First Time in 6 Months (Update2)
By Bloomberg News
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aJwN01TEImHg

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s imports of copper and the metal’s products in July dropped for the first time in six months, declining from a record, after stockpiles increased in the world’s largest consumer.

Imports slumped to 406,612 metric tons in July, the Beijing-based customs office said today. That’s 15 percent down from a record 477,217 tons in June, according to data on the Bloomberg.

Copper, used in homes and power cables, doubled in London this year as China boosted purchases to a record because of demand spurred by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and state stockpiling.

“It’s a long-anticipated drop and nothing really surprising,” Pang Jie, an analyst at Zhejiang Zhongda Futures Co., said by phone today. “We expect further declines over the rest of this year.”

Importing copper began incurring losses from late May, as overseas prices climbed faster than those in China, Pang said, adding record shipments in June were orders made earlier in the year. Inbound shipments result in losses of about 800 yuan a ton, after a 17 percent value-added tax, according to Bloomberg calculations.

China’s scrap copper imports were 450,000 tons in July, customs said. That compares with 278,922 tons in June and is 16 percent less than a year ago, according to Bloomberg data.

The country may have stockpiled as much as 400,000 tons of copper in the first half because of sizeable imports and a seasonal slowdown in demand, Macquarie Group Ltd. said July 6. Reported inventory by the Shanghai Futures Exchange has jumped fourfold this year to 63,434 tons from the end of 2008.

Strategic Reserves

Caijing magazine reported in June that China has bought 235,000 tons of copper for strategic reserves this year, citing Yu Dongming, a Chinese government official. The country has also bought aluminum, zinc and some rare metals for reserves.

China may not continue purchases of industrial metals for strategic reserves after prices rebounded, the magazine cited Yu as saying.

Imports of aluminum and products were 222,858 tons last month, 37 percent less than June, customs data showed.

The decline “was expected due to changing prices,” Wan Ling, an analyst at CRU International Ltd. said from Beijing.

--Li Xiaowei. Editors: Richard Dobson, Indranil Ghosh.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Li Xiaowei in Shanghai at Xli12@bloomberg.net

 

[LeeTV]

Re: Copper price discussion

I found this funny.. :

Base Metals Commodities Articles
METALS- Copper retreats as China demand doubts surface
August 11, 2009
Mitsui Bussan Commodities ... weighing on base metals, analysts... to our base metals price and returns forecasts skewed to the upside. Nickel was at $19,790 a tonne from $20,200...

METALS- Copper rises on China metals, economic data
August 11, 2009
'' Strong gains in base metals returns have dominated the commodity complex over the past month... among the commodities. A weak U.S. currency, which makes metals priced in dollars...

http://topics.forbes.com/base metals+commodities

 

[LeeTV]

Re: Copper price discussion

Credit Suisse lifts copper price forecasts
Aug 13, 2009, 5:21 a.m. EST
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/credit-suisse-lifts-copper-price-forecasts-2009-08-13

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Credit Suisse lifted its short and long-term forecasts for copper prices on Thursday. The broker now has a forecast of $2.90 per pound for 2010 and 2012, and $3.30 per pound for 2011. Long-term, it's now forecasting $2.00 per pound, up from a previous forecast of $1.50 per pound. "The global outlook has improved in the second half of 2009, especially in China. For copper we see a balanced market across the forecast period implying tighter prices," the broker said. It also lifted its aluminum price forecasts for the second half of 2009, to 78 cents per pound, from 70 cents per pound "to reflect the current market." High-grade copper futures rose 9 cents to $2.91 a pound in electronic trading.

 

[Tradesurfer]

Re: Copper price discussion

I've had a long trade on since Feb. I've small losses on other symbols as well. But so far have ignored the fundemental and simply stuck with the price action. Looks like its gonna test the recent high again but until the tren ends.....(FYI Using the Exchange Traded Note JJC on US Market to play this)