Conclusion
A major decline in the stocks to consumption ratio of copper justified a
dramatic increase in the copper price between 2002 and 2005. The
following year 2006 saw a volatile pattern of trading with the copper price
rising rapidly into overvalued territory and then collapsing. Our model of the
copper price suggests that copper appears to be repeating its 2006 behaviour
in 2007.
A sharp fall in the beginning of the year is being followed by a rally into
significantly overvalued territory. Currently the equilibrium price of copper is
$US6,635 per tonne. We expect copper to decline towards that value around
year end.