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Congratulations Australia - You are not in a recession

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Trembling Hand

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Its official. We are not in a "technical" recession of 2 quarters of negative growth.

GPD at 0.4. for Q1 quarter
 
Thanks TH!
This is good news but the doomsayers are ready with "Yeah, but..."

Here they come now LOL
 
well good news sure as hell beats the alternative IMO

(unless yr got lots of shorts on)
 
Woohoo!

Will the new economic triumvirate powerteam of Chindalia rule the world?
 
With the governments turnaround in budget equalling 7% of GDP, is anyone really surprised??
Take that out of the equation, and GDP would have been -7% in the last 12 months.
As long as the budget gets back into surplus in the next 2 years, I'll be happy. Hopefully the Rudd govt pulls back on the spending to the tune of about $50 billion over the next 2 years, otherwise as the recovery unfolds, the RBA will have to do all the work - ie raise rates by a huge number rather than a moderate one.

Cant' see this happening though - unless there is a change in government...
 
Timmy said:
This is good news but the doomsayers are ready with "Yeah, but..."
Click to expand...

ps. I should be fair to the Doom-and-Gloomers, there are plenty of "Yeah, but ..."'s in this result.
 
i am expecting a follow up announcement

"regret to announce we miscalculated the GDP, we traced the error back to an ex westpac employee fresh from new zealand and too many zeros were added to one figure. We understand the employee is now being sought by the treasury department in washington"
 
glads262 said:
With the governments turnaround in budget equalling 7% of GDP, is anyone really surprised??
Click to expand...

LOL; we had to pay multi-billion dollar retail-based stimulus packages to avoid the stigma of 'recession'. I would have preferred we had kept the money.
Given most of our hard won surplus has gone on consumer goods manufactured in Asia, all we have done is avoid a historical anecdote without any longer term tangible investment benefits.

However I concede that it is another feather in Kruddy's cap and will allow him to sell Australia as being both a 'fiscally conservative' and 'politically stable' state. This will help in attracting investment dollars from messieurs [insert cashed up Asian Tiger here]. This will ultimately ensure that we are a nanny service state whose key income producing assets are all owned by offshore interest. But we will have a $1000 plasma to provide soma to the middle class massive. Happy days and 'everybody needs good neighbours'!!

(Maybe this belongs on Sir O's 'rant' thread.)
 
Well we did escape a technical recession, but that doesn't matter too much IMO.

There are still big problems to come. It depends how you view it.

If commodities rise too quickly, and the AUD/USD goes a lot higher and just he AUD getting stronger against the other majors means that our exports will become more expensive.

Factor in that world growth is still crap, and translates into less earnings potential from our exports. It also means that there will start to be inflationary concerns if say the price of Oil sky rockets again--which it could, lol.

The housing bubble here in Australia is still a major concern. If the housing bubble bursts then....

ps--I'm still bearish on equities...I can't believe that we can go from a huge bear market and then jump into a bull market so quickly..
 
....thanks to a 7% reduction in imports? Come on people, start spending your stimulus money
 
alwaysLearning said:
I can't believe that we can go from a huge bear market and then jump into a bull market so quickly..
Click to expand...

I can because I always thought the relentless bear market sell off was way over-done for our local market and the long term potential of the economy here - only a full blown depression would have ended up justifying that sell off. Personally though I'm still not expecting to see anything like the 2007 highs again for many many years to come.

Cheers,

Beej
 
alwaysLearning said:
ps--I'm still bearish on equities...I can't believe that we can go from a huge bear market and then jump into a bull market so quickly..
Click to expand...

Who says this is a bullmarket? It's yet to be proven that the bear has finished yet and this is anything other then a bear market rally.

But my view as posted on the XAO thread a while ago is that we will trade sideways above the major low for a number of years. Whether we have seen that low or not is still to be decided but the longer this rally goes the more likely we have seen the low.


I agree with this, there was a lot of talk of it getting as bad as the great depression and it appeared to me alot of those scenarios where priced in but we have failed to see anything close to that especially in Oz
 
Re: Congratulations Australia - You are not in a recession
Click to expand...

... ohh McRudd, you've dunnit again !
 
*grabs large wooden stirring stick*

So I guess those Labour election adverts with Lawrence Springborg saying "We aren't in a recession". and the labor voice overs going "Yeah right he doesn't have a clue.".....were just a golden example of the noble profession of politics at it's best. *blarg*

I think I vomited a little bit saying that last line.

Cheers

Sir O
 
Timmy said:
Krudd & Co. are going to be unbearable for the next few days with this news.
Click to expand...
Yep, have been mentally groaning at this thought all afternoon.

Sums up my thoughts too, Bushman.
So irritating that the electorate largely seems unable to figure this out.

Have to say you're becoming very cynical.
 
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