Comparing all TA methods statistically

Start with the dynamics at the Bid ask Spread.

What is it ?

What is the market price ?

What moves these

Why do these move

Then link this to aspects of changes in Information and changes in Supply and Demand

Then Auction Dynamics

Get a grounding in what the reality of the market is

Then move on to defining trends
in terms of that reality

Etc

Very far from your list of "Signals"

Motorway

Gringotts Bank said:

so tech, how can you make a decision when:

Fib retracement says BUY
S/R says HOLD
Trendline says SELL
... along with ten other contradicting signals? I have studied a lot of different methods myself and find they they will often strongly contradict each other.

So my decision was to pick one, which I believe is marginally better than the others. Otherwise you will be obeying S/R on one trade, then denying it on the next. How could you develop a confidence with that way of working?

Click to expand...

7250 hrs should do it.
At the end of which your brain will automatically tell you what to accept and what to disgard.
It will also tell you how to manage the trade
How to handle or anticipate loss/profit and
How to position size.
All in a few minutes.

Support and Resistance and the associated reading of
Price action leading up to and at each S and R zone 750 ish.
Chart reading another 1000,Application of analysis well over 5000 hrs
Risk and Position sizing 500 hrs.

Click to expand...

But some elliott wouldnt go astray either.
Another 500 hrs.
Surely you have the picture by now.
Take a look at the RED chart analysis. Spot for a few months.
Ive many many examples on this board.
winners and losers.
Its how they are traded.

Gringotts Bank said:

That's all well and good, but how are you going to weight the importance of the signals? Based on what???

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Are you kidding me? You can't tell which should have more weight, a 50% retrace of a monthly move or a 50% retrace of an intraday move? You can't tell how to weight a 50 day breakout versus a 50 hour breakout? Can't you weight a trendline that has been tested twice versus one that's been tested thrice?

Based on what? Your understanding of the market structure.

See this is the whole reason for this thread. Are there methods that are better/more accurate/more profitable than others? Even if slightly, it's worth knowing.

Click to expand...

Oh right, now because you put it in italics I get it whereas before it made no sense to me.

It's 5.20 in Melbourne, sun is out and a cool breeze blowing.

I'm going for a walk.

If you live in Melbourne anywhere near the Eastern Freeway bike track, give us a wave!

Over and out.

oh... and thanks for those last few replies. Something to look at when I get back.

Gringotts Bank said:

If that's what prop shops do, shouldn't the graduates all be making good money?

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No guarantees for success but its the same for learning everything. Not everyone wins for many reasons. But its pretty much a time tested way to archive the most success.

Gringotts Bank said:

so tech, how can you make a decision when:
.
.
.
How could you develop a confidence with that way of working?

Click to expand...

Gringotts Bank said:

See this is the whole reason for this thread. Are there methods that are better/more accurate/more profitable than others?

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YES!!
Experience.

Hi GB,

I am currently building a course that is designed to upskill our employees in the area of Analysis, both technical and fundamental. At this stage of the economic cycle buy and hold is still a viable strategy due to underlying dividend yields. In the not too distant future however this will change and our current crop of grads are woefully underskilled to deliver results using technical and fundamental analysis over shorter-term timeframes. Even though these youngsters are RG146 compliant - they simply lack the skills necessary for the roles we want to move them into.

To let you know the scale of the course...the course outline is an inch thick document. I anticipate that the course duration will take 9 months...full time in classroom not including assignments and examinations to make them merely "competent". They will still need oversight from more senior staff.

Many here are pointing out the requirement of experience to become successful, and a course is simply designed to speed the process of experience. Methodology is largely irrelevant IMHO. Depending upon how you like to learn, how you like to process information and data, depends on what tools in the arsenal are going to work best for the individual. That is the reason for the length of the course...to expose these youngsters to a wide variety of methods and have them apply these different methodologies to determine which work for them and which do not. One is not better than another, its the individual that determines the success. Tech's comment about being able to visually assess a chart at a glance is correct...there are three people in the company who have that level of skill...and it's taken an average of 15 years of experience to get there amongst the three of us.

Cheers

Sir O

Thought I may add that the actual cost to myself in the process of learning T/A has been considerable.Ive attended 4 seminars that was about $1500.
Software thats around $10k for all of it.
Data feeds $250/mth for 10 yrs (Say) Books around 5K in 18 yrs.
Let alone my time invested of around 15000 hrs.

Just ask anyone who has done some form of degree the costs.
So if your going to do this you better be serious and be able (Start up capital) to do it justice in the end.

Sir Osisofliver said:

Hi GB,

Depending upon how you like to learn, how you like to process information and data, depends on what tools in the arsenal are going to work best for the individual. That is the reason for the length of the course...to expose these youngsters to a wide variety of methods and have them apply these different methodologies to determine which work for them and which do not.
Cheers

Sir O

Click to expand...

Makes perfect sense.

Wouldn't it save a lot of time if you could asses each student at the start (or get them to perform a self-assessment) to find out which method is going to suit them?

eg. a student who is more visually oriented will learn charting much more readily than FA. This student then skips the FA units and hones his visual skills. No time wasted. Only downside would be the course length (and income from same) would be greatly reduced.

Gringotts Bank said:

Makes perfect sense.

Wouldn't it save a lot of time if you could asses each student at the start (or get them to perform a self-assessment) to find out which method is going to suit them?

eg. a student who is more visually oriented will learn charting much more readily than FA. This student then skips the FA units and hones his visual skills. No time wasted. Only downside would be the course length (and income from same) would be greatly reduced.

Click to expand...

That's a very intelligent comment GB - it's actually the first work item in the first module. It covers investor psychology in depth. It covers a self assessment using a VARK model, Gardiners Multiple intelligence model and a risk modelling exercise (internally developed) involving both a psychometric and sensitivity analysis.

This will help tune the student into the methodologies that suit them the best and there is an elective component to the course structure, (specifically designed that way so those whose preference is FA or TA can focus on applying those methods).

For internal purposes however the grads will complete all modules. Our investment strategy (governed by our investment committee) involves the production of an approved product list within direct equity (IE what shares are approved for purchase for clients in the next 30 days and a buying range) - including research justification from both a TA and FA perspective. The grads need to to have a working knowledge of both. Anyone who wants to do the course who we don't employ could probably cut the course length down to about five months full time or about a year part-time.

For anyone reading this...don't ask me about it...don't PM me about it...aside from the fact it's still in development and likely won't be complete until the end of this calendar year, I will not be using ASF as a marketing channel for this product....I don't think Joe would like that.

Cheers

Sir O