Comparing all TA methods statistically

[Gringotts Bank]

I have no idea how you could consistently 'easily' identify a H&S but not be able to back test it? They are the same thing!

Anyway, Bulkowski has (as usual) done the hard work.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/hst.html

Google 'bulkowski head and shoulders' to get a better listing of bottoms/tops/complex stuff.

Yep, it's a great site. One of my favs. You can backtest H&S for Aus markets if you're willing to spend a huge amount of time on it. But then I don't get my comparison with other non-pattern TA methods.

tech, still waiting on your response!! Is VSA a better method than a simple MA for identifying opportunities, or isn't it? I know this looks like some sort of Socratic entrapment, but you led yourself into it! I wasn't aiming to do this.

 

[tech/a]

A head-and-shoulders pattern can easily be identified and traded. Backtesting is near impossible. That's the sort of thing I'm talking about.

So why do you spend so much time and effort on VSA as opposed to just using a simple MA to find opportunities?

The time and effort as in all analysis I consider.
Chart reading
Support resistance
VSA
Elliot.
Pattern recognition.
Has taught me to instantly "see" a setup which requires further time spent on it and or an exit setup which needs to be monitored.

The APPLICATION of what I see to execute a buy or a Sell is what your after.
What makes me pull the trigger.

Frankly I just dont have the time or inclination to walk you through the process.
It would take around an hr to mark up a chart and make notes on it.
Then Id have to answer questions and sometimes it would be 3 times in a day or 3 times in a week!!

Perhaps when I retire Ill disclose my trading accounts to those who want me to teach them and who have the $10000 + its worth to educate someone.

 

[motorway]

What is a TA method ? Do you mean various ways of arranging data ?

(into EWs , Into Bars and Volume , Into aggregations of same eg Averages , patterns)

Maybe there is only ONE TA method

Has two phases

So we could see ONE method maybe with two approaches.

Identifying Turning points &
Following Trends

What else is there with position trading ?

My focus is on primarily on Identifying Turning Points
That of course means measuring trends

But this is just the ONE thing

The only question becomes how best to arrange data ( maybe it does not need arranging , or minimal arranging ?.

( This is connected to more than the one aspect of a buy or sell leading beyond a particular trade )





Motorway

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The time and effort as in all analysis I consider.
Chart reading
Support resistance
VSA
Elliot.
Pattern recognition.
Has taught me to instantly "see" a setup which requires further time spent on it and or an exit setup which needs to be monitored.

The APPLICATION of what I see to execute a buy or a Sell is what your after.
What makes me pull the trigger.

Frankly I just dont have the time or inclination to walk you through the process.
It would take around an hr to mark up a chart and make notes on it.
Then Id have to answer questions and sometimes it would be 3 times in a day or 3 times in a week!!

Perhaps when I retire Ill disclose my trading accounts to those who want me to teach them and who have the $10000 + its worth to educate someone.

LOL, I'm not an idiot!!

You're saying you analyze a chart using 5 different and quite complex methods, however you instantly see the trade set up and pull the trigger? That statement contradicts itself.

And then you can do it in an instant, but it takes $10000 and many years to teach someone else???

Thirdly, why use 5 relatively complex methods when all you need is a simple MA?

Pffff!!! Try again my friend.

 

[peter2]

So why do you spend so much time and effort on VSA as opposed to just using a simple MA to find opportunities?

Each of us develops beliefs about how the market moves, who's behind the moves or what each move represents (refer to the loony RED thread). We interpret the price movements, chart patterns and fundamentals based on what we know, what we think we know, what we understand (or don't), how we feel, etc. We seek information that confirms our understanding of the markets. Tech/a probably had an "aha" moment when he was introduced to VSA. Something clicked and he was able to see the trading opportunitites clearer. He was able to see repeating VSA patterns that he can use to earn profits.

Each of us is different and will require different tools to "see" trading opportunities. I think some people even use FA to find trading opps.

 

[Trembling Hand]

You're saying you analyze a chart using 5 different and quite complex methods, however you instantly see the trade set up and pull the trigger? That statement contradicts itself.

It certainly does not. Its called expertise.

 

[tech/a]

LOL, I'm not an idiot!!

Debatable. Why the question?
When this is your conclusion.

when all you need is a simple MA?

You're saying you analyze a chart using 5 different and quite complex methods, however you instantly see the trade set up and pull the trigger? That statement contradicts itself.

Racing drivers/Surgeons/Engineers all take years to be able to learn their specialty.
They can in their field instantly see something positive or negative through experience.
I can show you and so can they but with all learners youll be sure to wreck the race car/kill the patient/have your structure fail.

And then you can do it in an instant, but it takes $10000 and many years to teach someone else???

Yep I can teach you for $200 and leave you to it.---Failure.
$10,000 would be cheap.

Thirdly, why use 5 relatively complex methods when all you need is a simple MA?

Because those 5 and others thrown in the mix work for me. A simple M/A works for me in a few systems---but not Discretionary.

The exercise hasnt got off the ground and already your making assumptions.
Your not interested in what is being offered up to you from those who do trade.
This---is why I and many others cant be bothered.--Takes to long and you cop
more flack than a bomber over Germany!

Pffff!!! Try again my friend.

im not trying anything simply responding to your question.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

No.

Anyone with a reasonably decent intellect can become a surgeon or engineer, and make good money guaranteed. The same is not true for trading. In fact the opposite is true.

Race driving is physical skill + memory.

I read your threads on vsa and I see pavillion and a few others flapping around trying to follow what you're on about. While I believe you make money, I don't for one minute believe that you could teach it successfully, even if given years and thousands of dollars.

 

[sinner]

No.

Anyone with a reasonably decent intellect can become a surgeon or engineer, and make good money guaranteed. The same is not true for trading. In fact the opposite is true.

Race driving is physical skill + memory.

I read your threads on vsa and I see pavillion and a few others flapping around trying to follow what you're on about. While I believe you make money, I don't for one minute believe that you could teach it successfully, even if given years and thousands of dollars.

So wrong, so rude, so naive.

You treat us like a science experiment whenever you have one of these "ideas" and never respond well when the consensus is opposite to what you wanted to hear. This is not the first thread started by you simply because you were unwilling to carry out the hard work yourself.

What's your beef, GB?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Well if what you say is stupid... of course I'm going to pick you up on it!

On this thread I am very happy with the way sky, peter and skc responded. skc was critical, but I couldn't care less. What he said was sensible.

90% of surgeons would make $250,000 minimum, the good ones in the millions, and it's pretty much guaranteed. If you think that's true of traders, well.... I dunno...what's your beef?

 

[Trembling Hand]

No.

Anyone with a reasonably decent intellect can become a surgeon or engineer, and make good money guaranteed. The same is not true for trading. In fact the opposite is true.

Race driving is physical skill + memory.

I read your threads on vsa and I see pavillion and a few others flapping around trying to follow what you're on about. While I believe you make money, I don't for one minute believe that you could teach it successfully, even if given years and thousands of dollars.

Oh dear. Whats the diff between a trained surgeon or engineer and a wannabe trader?

One has structured training over 5-10 years racking up huge hours in fundamentals and then progressively getting more specialised. While the other has no structure and does no real work while flopping around looking for an easy way.

What you are proposing in the thread is you want to test mostly unproven participants to legitimise an approach.

Desperate?

Why can you not just do it yourself? I'm sure you will learn more.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yes there's a lot of preparation study - nuts and bolts stuff at university.

But as we've already found, trading "method" is not all that important. So what is your nuts and bolts preparation, what is your ground work as a trader?

Once you've passed your physician's exams, the credo in surgery is "learn one, teach one", meaning that you observe one appendectomy, then you know how to do it, so you teach the next guy.

Totally different.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Totally different.

LOL

Some seem to think so.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Answer the question please!

If you were TH-University Incorporated, what units of study do you teach in years 1 to 6? Let's make it comparable to our surgeon or engineer. What methods do you teach and more importantly...why? If you teach method x over method y, you must think or have some proof that x is more valuable/profitable or at least easier to use.

If it's just a matter of "watch the depth for 6 years", then that's not the same as learning a huge number of facts as you would with a bachelor degree.

 

[tech/a]

Answer the question please!

If you were TH-University Incorporated, what units of study do you teach in years 1 to 6? Let's make it comparable to our surgeon or engineer. What methods do you teach and more importantly...why? If you teach method x over method y, you must think or have some proof that x is more valuable/profitable or at least easier to use.

If it's just a matter of "watch the depth for 6 years", then that's not the same as learning a huge number of facts as you would with a bachelor degree.

To become proficient in the Technical disciplines I myself have studied takes many many hrs.
Elliott alone took around 500 hrs for proficiency
VSA 1000 ish
Chart Patterns 500 ish
Support and Resistance and the associated reading of
Price action leading up to and at each S and R zone 750 ish.
Chart reading another 1000
Systems design and testing 2000 ish and counting.
Stadelmayer/Market profile 200
Point and figure 100 ish.
Oscillators 200 ish.
Application of analysis well over 5000 hrs
Risk and Position sizing 500 hrs.

Your not going to know what you dont need to know until you know as much as you can about everything technical which makes up you the trader.

There is a lot i know which just sits in the back of the brain and pops out when you least expect it.
Market profile for 1

Anyway---thats what I can think of off the top of my head.
Come back when you have a proficiency in all the above and perhaps then we can have a meaningful discussion.
Until then
as Radge would say
"Enjoy the Journey"

 

[Trembling Hand]

Answer the question please!

Maybe you could try looking at the answers as well? Like your last few threads on scalping, taking 2 tick profit , where it was pointed out the ten thousand problems with your approach yet you ignored them all.

Now we have another thread, because I assume your scalping methods have gone t1ts up, where it seems all you want in it is an easy one, two, three steps to success in 5 days.

At my Tremblers University the curriculum would be very similar to a medical degree structure actually.

Basic fundamentals of the market,
How each parts interact with each other,
Broad observations and play with as ALL approaches,
Picking of specialisation
Setting out paths to learn that specialisation.
etc etc

This is the basic prop shop model. Hell its all been said before. Here is a post from a Doctor explain how he trains traders,
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2008/09/introduction-to-trading-learning-how-to.html

 

[Gringotts Bank]

so tech, how can you make a decision when:

Fib retracement says BUY
S/R says HOLD
Trendline says SELL
... along with ten other contradicting signals? I have studied a lot of different methods myself and find they they will often strongly contradict each other.

So my decision was to pick one, which I believe is marginally better than the others. Otherwise you will be obeying S/R on one trade, then denying it on the next. How could you develop a confidence with that way of working?

 

[sinner]

so tech, how can you make a decision when:

Fib retracement says BUY
S/R says HOLD
Trendline says SELL
... along with ten other contradicting signals? I have studied a lot of different methods myself and find they they will often strongly contradict each other.

So my decision was to pick one, which I believe is marginally better than the others. Otherwise you will be obeying S/R on one trade, then denying it on the next. How could you develop a confidence with that way of working?

Geeeeeee

Never heard of confluence before?

http://www.trading-naked.com/Confluence.htm

IF S/R says hold, fib says buy and trendline says sell and you put equal weight in all signals then

S/R: +1
Fib: 0
Trendline: -1

Total = 0. Decision? Hold.

What about if (like in the above picture)

S/R: +1
Fib: +1
(Untested) Trendline: +1 (* 0.5 since untested) = +0.5

Total = +2.5. Decision? Buy.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Maybe you could try looking at the answers as well? Like your last few threads on scalping, taking 2 tick profit , where it was pointed out the ten thousand problems with your approach yet you ignored them all.

Now we have another thread, because I assume your scalping methods have gone t1ts up, where it seems all you want in it is an easy one, two, three steps to success in 5 days.

At my Tremblers University the curriculum would be very similar to a medical degree structure actually.

Basic fundamentals of the market,
How each parts interact with each other,
Broad observations and play with as ALL approaches,
Picking of specialisation
Setting out paths to learn that specialisation.
etc etc

This is the basic prop shop model. Hell its all been said before. Here is a post from a Doctor explain how he trains traders,
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2008/09/introduction-to-trading-learning-how-to.html

Hang on, I read every single bit of feedback I get, thanks, no matter whom it's from. I just so happens that more than half of it doesn't end up helping. On the flipside, there are a couple of people in here who have been great, offering accurate and useful information. I take it all in (apart from the dumb comments) and unlike a lot of dudes in here I always thank people who have given me something valuable.

If that's what prop shops do, shouldn't the graduates all be making good money?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Geeeeeee

Never heard of confluence before?

http://www.trading-naked.com/Confluence.htm

IF S/R says hold, fib says buy and trendline says sell and you put equal weight in all signals then

S/R: +1
Fib: 0
Trendline: -1

Total = 0. Decision? Hold.

What about if (like in the above picture)

S/R: +1
Fib: +1
(Untested) Trendline: +1 (* 0.5 since untested) = +0.5

Total = +2.5. Decision? Buy.

That's all well and good, but how are you going to weight the importance of the signals? Based on what???

See this is the whole reason for this thread. Are there methods that are better/more accurate/more profitable than others? Even if slightly, it's worth knowing.