Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Commodity cycles

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michael_selway said:
hey where else can u see up to date base metal prices
MS
Click to expand...

http://www.basemetals.com/
but only when LME and COMEX are open, I believe - I use Kitco.
There are subscription sites a plenty - but only needed if you trade.

In relation to previous night's correction, dip buying took hold in Asian afternoon trade and with LME an NY futures ringsopening in a few hours we will find out if any follow through selling is to occu.
My view is that the "big" correction was yesterday and we will have to go parabolic again before the next one sets in.
Why?
Because all the news out there on global industrial production is positively positive!
Buy oil equities next week.
 
rederob said:
My view is that the "big" correction was yesterday and we will have to go parabolic again before the next one sets in.
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Could be next week!
Copper up 45 cents on open and will probably close the month out with its highest ever monthly percentage price gain.
Too much good news on the economic front, and supply disruptions/reduced output on the fundamental side.
Must say I was never a fan of volatility, but it keeps the pulse churning!
 
rederob said:
http://www.basemetals.com/
but only when LME and COMEX are open, I believe - I use Kitco.
There are subscription sites a plenty - but only needed if you trade.

In relation to previous night's correction, dip buying took hold in Asian afternoon trade and with LME an NY futures ringsopening in a few hours we will find out if any follow through selling is to occu.
My view is that the "big" correction was yesterday and we will have to go parabolic again before the next one sets in.
Why?
Because all the news out there on global industrial production is positively positive!
Buy oil equities next week.
Click to expand...

Oil equities why?

btw should also look at the change in "live warrants" cause the "cancelled" ones are already "sold". Bascially u can wipe out 90125 tonne zinc now, and price wouldnt have much effect

LME Official Opening Stock in tonnes
Date ALUMINIUM ALLOY ALUMINIUM COPPER LEAD NICKEL TIN ZINC NASAAC
27 Apr 2006 33040 743275 117950 96825 27174 14045 262150 125520

Live Warrants 31680 692675 108250 93875 24654 9615 172025 123880
Cancelled Warrants 1360 50600 9700 2950 2520 4430 90125 1640

http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_daily_metal.asp
 
Professor_frink.

Interesting Article and I can't really fault his logic. Aggree that the comodities "bubble" won't last forever, but question when it will run out of steam. Sure to say you would be sitting alot prettier if you had of bought into commodites four years ago. (Buying OXR at 10c as an example would make you smile all over). How much further does it have to run though, is the million dollar question.

In regards to america being the next big thing to run I agree with his argument but I'm a little reluctant to go near america as a whole with a 10 foot pole.
 
clowboy said:
Professor_frink.

Interesting Article and I can't really fault his logic. Aggree that the comodities "bubble" won't last forever, but question when it will run out of steam. Sure to say you would be sitting alot prettier if you had of bought into commodites four years ago. (Buying OXR at 10c as an example would make you smile all over). How much further does it have to run though, is the million dollar question.

In regards to america being the next big thing to run I agree with his argument but I'm a little reluctant to go near america as a whole with a 10 foot pole.
Click to expand...

Agree with that last comment- I wouldn't invest in America with your 10 foot pole, let alone mine :D
Obviously it won't last forever, but it would be nice! The description he gave for the last commodities bull is quite good. He mentioned that in the early 70's there was a massive rise over about 3 years, followed by a decline for a couple of years before taking off again in 79.
If you use that as a guide for the current boom, I'd say that we are still in the first phase of the bullmarket, in which case, I can't see why he thinks it's a bubble yet, especially when you consider that the price for most commodities, when adjusted for inflation, aren't even at all time highs yet.
A good example being gold- see chart below. We aren't even close to an all time high when you adjust for inflation.
 

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Yesterday 04:06 PM professor_frink: "I'd say that we are still in the first phase of the bullmarket, in which case, I can't see why he thinks it's a bubble yet, especially when you consider that the price for most commodities, when adjusted for inflation, aren't even at all time highs yet."
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Professor
If you pull up the copper chart you will see we recently moved up a gear, so maybe we need to determine how many phases there are.
The first phase was characterised by steady rises.
The present one is highly volatile and will see some tremendous gains, mixed with stunning collapses - like last week's.
I will let others take over from here.
I just wanted to add that the funds have yet to pile in their portfolio percentages, so the ride will be frenetic for the remainder of this year.
While demand remains robust and supply tight, the funds will keep investing - I can't see this stopping in 3 months. In six months perhaps, but not in my view. Maybe this time next year we can see supply/demand in greater balance, but I reckon we could stay surprised for longer than anyone ever imagined.
 
How many phases there are?

Would love to know the answer to that one in advance! The author of the article I mentioned previously talked about 2 main advances in the last bullmarket, but whether that repeats itself is beyond me! It does seem as though we have definately shifted gears recently, which for me is a little worrying. If this bullmarket turns out to be similar to the last one, I'll stand by my comment of us being in the first phase, solely because we haven't had the big decline in between moves yet.
Definately agree that we probably have a little while to go in this particular move, although I'll be surprised if it's still going at this pace this time next year, but hey I'm wrong alot so don't take what I say too seriously! It should be an interesting ride- and a volatile one :)

on a side note- why did you quote the time I made that post?
 
for anyone else reading, this is what rederob is talking about in regards to copper moving up a gear.
 

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Does anyone know if the figures from kitco are acurate as of late? there was talk of errors in the charts.

A 40 cent per LB drop followed by a 40 cent per LB rally over two days seems a bit wierd
 
on a side note- why did you quote the time I made that post?
Click to expand...
Professor
Only to make it easier to find as I only lifted part of one sentence rather than you whole post.

Clowboy
Trust what you see on Kitco - maybe they did not believe it themselves!
Copper has gone feral!
 
rederob said:
Professor
If you pull up the copper chart you will see we recently moved up a gear, so maybe we need to determine how many phases there are.
The first phase was characterised by steady rises.
The present one is highly volatile and will see some tremendous gains, mixed with stunning collapses - like last week's.
I will let others take over from here.
I just wanted to add that the funds have yet to pile in their portfolio percentages, so the ride will be frenetic for the remainder of this year.
While demand remains robust and supply tight, the funds will keep investing - I can't see this stopping in 3 months. In six months perhaps, but not in my view. Maybe this time next year we can see supply/demand in greater balance, but I reckon we could stay surprised for longer than anyone ever imagined.
Click to expand...

Hi do u think that before the end of an unrecoverable crash, it will shift to the highest gear first ie super spike before the crash?

Thsi is in regards to copper, however crash not likely this yr but 2007 and 2008 danger years imo

thx

MS

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professor_frink said:
How many phases there are?

Would love to know the answer to that one in advance! The author of the article I mentioned previously talked about 2 main advances in the last bullmarket, but whether that repeats itself is beyond me! It does seem as though we have definately shifted gears recently, which for me is a little worrying. If this bullmarket turns out to be similar to the last one, I'll stand by my comment of us being in the first phase, solely because we haven't had the big decline in between moves yet.
Definately agree that we probably have a little while to go in this particular move, although I'll be surprised if it's still going at this pace this time next year, but hey I'm wrong alot so don't take what I say too seriously! It should be an interesting ride- and a volatile one :)

on a side note- why did you quote the time I made that post?
Click to expand...
To my under standing there are 3 phases usually. The accumulation comes first (over now), then the main up move happens and during this is where to expect the big correction, and finally comes the blow off when the public gets involved. There are smaller cycles within each of those phases.

Just my understanding. I'm no expert on it.
 
Here's a recent comment from fat prophets last week:

It is worthwhile to remind Members that there are three general stages in a bull market. The first is stealth, when prices go up but nobody cares or notices. With commodities, that happened during the period from 2000 to 2003, when Fat Prophets was strongly recommending investment in both gold and oil.

The next is the 'Wall of Worry' stage, which is where we are currently. During this stage, prices are rising but investors expect them to fall back to the bear market levels with which they are familiar. Investors typically find all sorts of reasons as to why they are over-priced, confused by the new reality. Many investors sell out at this stage, which is what we are currently witnessing.

Finally, there is the mania stage, where broad masses of the public get involved. This is where the big profits lie, but there are also higher risks.

In our view, the fact that commodity prices are trading at close to record levels is not the issue; rather the rapid rate of their increase that has left them vulnerable to short-term correction.

cheers
dodgers
 
Smurf1976 said:
To my under standing there are 3 phases usually. The accumulation comes first (over now), then the main up move happens and during this is where to expect the big correction, and finally comes the blow off when the public gets involved. There are smaller cycles within each of those phases.

Just my understanding. I'm no expert on it.
Click to expand...

Doug Casey wrote an excellent article on it last year, I think the fat prophets borrowed his terminology, try his site, www.kitcocasey.com for the full article, with graphs etc. Here's a reference to it by one of my favourite posters, our erstwhile member known as INVESTOR: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11942&postcount=30

Looks like we should watch for another fall in the USD.
 
RichKid said:
Looks like we should watch for another fall in the USD.
Click to expand...

TOKYO, May 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the yen and euro on Tuesday after a British newspaper reported that Don Evans, a possible successor to U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, was likely to favour a weaker dollar. The Times of London said in an article in its online edition that Evans, a former U.S. commerce secretary, may fit the mould of past Treasury chiefs who have favoured a weaker dollar given his political background.

The newspaper said that in the past 30 years, "those with an industrial or political background ... have been quite happy, indeed eager, to see the dollar decline."

"The political-industrial complex likes a lower currency that helps American exporters," the Times said, and added: "Don Evans seems to fit very comfortably into this latter category."

Republican sources said last week that Snow will likely step down in June, and U.S. media such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal have recently reported that Evans was a leading contender to succeed Snow.

Traders said the dollar was also dragged lower after Japanese Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said it was natural for the market to decide the dollar/yen rate, but that sharp movements in exchange rates were undesirable.
 
Rich that was an excellent article by Doug Casey - a good read...

We still in Wall of Worry stage no doubt..
 

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