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Coal - where to now?

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Coal prices are set to remain at high levels during 2008 with all the port problems in Australia and benchmark thermal coal out of Newcastle may well reach US$90 per tonne.

Prices for those miners who are yet to agree deals from April 2008 onwards, may well set benchmark thermal prices at around US$90 per tonne.

Prices for coking coal may well be set to lift with increasing demand from India and other coals, semi-soft coking, P.C.I., and even sub-bitumous, are set to rise further.
 
Nice breakout of a descending triangle in CEY yesterday:



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
 

Hm you were right about CEY

Do you have any TA thoughts on any of the other coal stocks?

CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, RIV, COK, NEC, CNA, SRL, MLM...

thx

MS
 

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I like this thread , clinical thinkers with eyes on the ball , couple of others for the list ...... Excel and Pike River Coal .
 
ithatheekret said:
I like this thread , clinical thinkers with eyes on the ball , couple of others for the list ...... Excel and Pike River Coal .
Click to expand...

Hi you meantion "Excel" isthat listed onthe ASX? I thought it was taken over by Peabody Coal, a US company

Thanks

MS

--------------------------------------------

PS: Any others i can add to the list below? Thanks

CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, RIV, COK, NEC, CNA, SRL, MLM, PRC...



 
The IMF forecasts World economy growth at 4.75% for 2008. This is against an expected figure of 5.2% in 2007 and actual growth of 5.4% in 2006. The sag is due to reduced growth expected in the USA, UK and parts of Europe.

World coal sales are expected to rise by 35 million tonnes in 2008. Coal prices are expected to remain firm during 2008 in Australia due to Port restrictions. 2009 will start firm but prices are not expected to rise above the 2008 average as Port upgrades and a new terminal at Newcastle comes onstream.
2010 may well be a testing period in Australia for thermal coal.
 
michael_selway said:
Hi you meantion "Excel" isthat listed onthe ASX? I thought it was taken over by Peabody Coal, a US company

Thanks

MS
Click to expand...

No ....... thank you Micheal , your diligence is correct , I just have to update my lists , all my fault , too busy in other areas .
 
ithatheekret said:
No ....... thank you Micheal , your diligence is correct , I just have to update my lists , all my fault , too busy in other areas .
Click to expand...

No Problemo

CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, RIV, COK, NEC, CNA, SRL, MLM, PRC, CZA...

Updated List

thx

MS
 
There's a new ETF coming out on Tuesday . (KOL)

A market vector coal ETF .

It will cover a basket of US and international coalers .

Just another way to obtain exposure to the coal rush .
 
ithatheekret said:
There's a new ETF coming out on Tuesday . (KOL)

A market vector coal ETF .

It will cover a basket of US and international coalers .

Just another way to obtain exposure to the coal rush .
Click to expand...

hi cool thx

Btw updated Coalers list

CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, RIV, COK, NEC, CZA, PRC, CDS, CNA, SRL, MLM...

thx

MS
 
deja vu Michael. Another breakout...





This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
 
noirua said:
Back in 2005, China announced they would need to build 544 new coal fired Power Stations to power cities. From a BBC report in March 2005: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4330469.stm
Click to expand...
Building power stations is one thing. Having enough coal to fire them is another.

China's situation with coal now is little different to that which normally applies with hydro power. Easy to add more generating capacity (turbines, alternators) but total output is limited by the availability of primary energy (fuel) to run them. Building another power station in this situation doesn't help if you don't also increase the supply of primary energy with which to run it.

It's a new situation for China and indeed most countries but one that's very familiar to New Zealand, parts of South America, Canada, Tasmania and other places that have a long established constraint with primary energy rather than peak generating capacity.

Bottom line: China will be flat out doing whatever they can to get more coal and indeed any primary energy (gas, hydro, nuclear, wind) that's cheaper than the fuel of last resort (ie oil). Imports, domestic production, whatever as long as it's cheaper than oil (which coal is).

The US is also facing a reduction in nuclear output due to drought. Again it's not simply a question of peak capacity but one of primary energy. The lost nuclear output, if it happens, has to be replaced by something else. Realistically that's going to be coal and oil - gas is already tapped out and overloading hydro plants in a drought dosen't work for long.

So, China wants more coal and the US will probably have a bit less to export.
 
There we goes Smurf1976, all plans of mice and men. Anyway, China as a form of Dictatorship, just says "we are not exporting any coal for 2 months" and that is that, no more to be said.
As you infer, China has had to shutdown some powerstations due to lack of coal.
A great pity Australia didn't update the rail system back in 2003 and ports when PM John Howard had such a great chance. Instead they built the Alice Springs to Darwin rail extension (great enterprise), not a lot of use in Queensland and NSW however.
 
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