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Coal - where to now?

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noirua said:
Coal - Environment report " solid energy "

http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/0702/Environment_Report._web.pdf
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For those not aware, Solid Energy is a government owned coal mining company in NZ.

For quite some time Solid Energy has been interested in developing brown coal-fired power generation in NZ as natural gas reserves in that country are depleted (natural gas provides over a quarter of NZ electricity).

That said, another NZ company, Mighty River Power (predominantly involved with hydro-electricity as the name implies) has dropped plans to convert an "old" (built in the 1970's but has never generated as single kilowatt - not even a trial run) oil-fired plant to coal-firing on the basis that renewable energy, specifically geothermal, is a cheaper option than coal. That plant isn't near coal mines however so it did have transport cost issues (and would likely have used imported coal).
 
Coal prices remain on the up in US Dollar terms and that particularly concerns prices of export thermal coals, PCI coal and semi-soft coking. The rise in the Aussie Dollar to around A$1.15 to the US$ is starting to squeeze profit margins on those who have fixed prices and have failed to take currency options. Demurrage costs and the problems at Newcastle Dock in particular remain negative factors.

Those who are able to make up short falls in NSW Docks by supplying at US$58+ a tonne for thermal are doing well.

The futures bright for thermal and indeed the futures coal.
 
Thermal, PCI and semi-soft coking coal has risen by up to 22%, on spot, out of Newcastle and Gladstone.
Xstrata and Rio have started their current round of talks that are expected to agree supplies from 1st April 2008 at around US$68 per tonne for thermal and up to US$76 for semi-soft.
 
At the moment thermal coal production will grow and supply will still not match demand. Two or three thermal coal powerstations are opened every month in China alone.
 
noirua said:
At the moment thermal coal production will grow and supply will still not match demand. Two or three thermal coal powerstations are opened every month in China alone.
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Yes you need to load up on coal! CEY, GCL, FLX, MCC, RSP etc

20_9_2007_weekly.gif


Thanks

MS
 
From Agence France-Presse today..


"ENERGY-starved China will boost coal output by 400 million tonnes a year by 2010 by streamlining the industry and opening a string of new "super" pits, state media reported today.

Widespread closures and mergers will leave fewer than 20 firms, including six to eight new “super coal production enterprises' with a yield of 100 million tonnes each, accounting for more than 50 per cent of the country's entire output by 2010, Xinhua news agency said.

China reported a total coal output of more than 2.3 billion tonnes of coal last year.

Small mines that are illegal or inefficient and have given the industry its appalling safety record are already being weeded out, Wang Xianzheng, deputy director of the State Administration of Work Safety, was quoted as saying.

Over the past two years, more than 9000 small mines have been shut and another 1000 will close by the end of 2007, Xinhua said.

As part of the streamlining process the country plans to build 10 large strip-mines with a production capacity of 10 million tonnes each and another 10 pits with a yield of 10 million tonnes each, Mr Wang said.

China's coal mines are among the most dangerous in the world, and many of the accidents occur in small, unlicensed mines where safety regulations are widely ignored.

More than 4700 coal miners died in China last year, according to official figures, but independent labour groups put the real toll at closer to 20,000 annually. They say many accidents never come to light."

I wonder what effect this move by China might have on our own coal exporters over the coming years.. let alone the possible impact on climate change?

AJ
 
The position of coal, in supplying China, India and the rest of Asia is a very talked about subject.
China are opening 2 or 3 power stations every week and by far the majority are powered by thermal coal mixes. Thermal coal is cheap when compared with oil.
There is new technology, mainly from Germany, but this will take time and China are not prepared to wait.

Indonesia produces a lot of thermal coal but is needing an increasing amount for its own new power stations.

Australia has vast amounts of thermal coal and sub-bitumous coal. The latter is coming more to the fore in South Australia with the Adelaide to Darwin Rail Link in place. Ports are being enlarged and new loaders added.

Apart from these coals, it's lignite that holds a further key as new technology becomes available. There is more lignite in the world than all other coals put together.

The future is coal, unfortunately Asia is going to become a very smokey place. The upsides are enormous and the downsides very obvious.
 
The Newcastle Port became the embarrassment of Australia as 70 ships lay at anchor waiting to berth.
There has been some improvement and the present number of ships at anchor is 39, with 4 in port.
Delay is currently 16.5 days.
 
The "Coldry" process for treating brown coal, patented by ESI, has the potential to be used in the process of extraction of diesel from brown coal at costs which could be profitable at oil prices above $60 barrel.
In an ASX announcement ESI claim that using the Coldry process which extracts 95% of the water from brown coal to produce a dense and energy rich fuel pellet could be extended to coal to oil applications. Research indicates Coldry pellets have a higher yield per tonne than black coal and eliminate the need for costly energy intensive and high-emissions slurry drying associated with black coal.
For further information check out yesterdays ESI announcement.
 
I'm no expert on Chinese coal reserves, but I did see some research which suggested they would hit peak production around 2020.

If it's correct then given the huge number of new power stations they are building, world coal trade is set to surge once China's produciton peaks.
 
I was under the impression that coking coal is the vareity in highest demand , given the abundance of coal available . I can only see it continuing with strong demand , much to the disgust to the well meaning greenies , money may make the world go round , but it's basically powered by coal for our other needs , this is not a fleeting coincidence as most of the globes major exporters and utilities , need this fuel source for the continuity in manufacturing and other fundamental needs to power players who are scraping the barrel to find a way to reduce operation costs .
 
Green footprints are all very fine but how many back these principals to the extent of reducing their brown footprint: Sell the car, walk further, don't buy packaged products, never fly by aircraft except gliders. Infact, buy pedal cycles for the family and they can use it to cycle 10 kilometres to school and back. Use one carrier bag and never use plastic throw-away ones. Cut down on heating and remove the airconditioning and so it goes on and on.

When you go on green rallies, NEVER TRAVEL BY CAR. Show you mean what you say and use a pedal cycle, WHAT, it's 50 kilometres, so what, are you really the genuine article. YOU ARE, great, I respect you.
 
WHC released an exceptional presentation regarding their growth prospects this morning!

makes for a very encouraging and reassuring read for WHC holders!
 
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