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noirua said:The position of coal prices has become quite interesting and this concerns the bottom end of the coal market. Thermal and sub-bitumous ( steaming ) coals are mainly used in powerstations and there are vast reserves in South Australia. China has recently announced the intent to build an increasing number of powerstations using sub-bitumous coal.
It does seem that the future is very bright for coal in the 30 years ahead.
nizar said:yes i agree
i read a report in AFR a few months ago about australia's energy sources...
in 2050, we are still expected to generate 40% of our energy from coal (down from about 50% today)..
EXL the best exposure?
Note that this refers to primary energy and not electricity generated (electricity being the major use of coal). A bit over 80% of Australia's electricity is from coal, about 10% from hydro (60% of that in Tasmania, 30% from the Snowy and the rest in Vic, Qld, NSW and WA) and most of the rest is from natural gas. A minor amount is from oil both to supply the major grids and in remote areas (diesel) and also wind and bagasse (sugar industry waste) are minor sources. Trivial sources include solar and landfill gas.nizar said:yes i agree
i read a report in AFR a few months ago about australia's energy sources...
in 2050, we are still expected to generate 40% of our energy from coal (down from about 50% today)..
EXL the best exposure?
Smurf1976 said:Note that this refers to primary energy and not electricity generated (electricity being the major use of coal). A bit over 80% of Australia's electricity is from coal, about 10% from hydro (60% of that in Tasmania, 30% from the Snowy and the rest in Vic, Qld, NSW and WA) and most of the rest is from natural gas. A minor amount is from oil both to supply the major grids and in remote areas (diesel) and also wind and bagasse (sugar industry waste) are minor sources. Trivial sources include solar and landfill gas.
In terms of primary energy regardless of the end use, coal and oil dominate with most of the rest from gas. Hydro is minor in this context partly because of conversion efficiency and what's being measured. In the case of hydro (and wind, solar etc) it's the output of the power stations (themselves over 90% efficient in the case of hydro) which is measured whereas with coal it's the input (60%+ of which is lost in conversion to electricity) which is measured. So the minor sources (hydro etc) are more important than primary energy stats indicate but they are still relatively minor compared to coal, oil and gas. Wood makes up most of the rest with a bit from wind and trivial amounts from solar etc.
BentRod said:Smurf,
You seem to know your stuff!
Any thought's on GDY?
Is geothermal energy viable in your opinion?
Michael,
Sorry to go off topic slightly.
Cheers
RichKid said:This is a feature article about producing 'clean' coal through separating CO2 and then disposing of it safely, I think the issue has been mentioned before by Smurf and others. Can this really be so good? Will it work? 300 yrs of coal is a helluva lot!! I can see why it's in the national interest to harness it if you can take the negatives out of it.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20876,19398445-28737,00.html
An extract:
...........Together with proposed private industry spending, investment in clean coal technology in Australia alone is expected to tip $20 billion in the next decade.
The reason for this massive investment is that Australia has about 300 years' worth of coal still in the ground and fossil fuels comprise a quarter of all exports. Australia also has 24 large power stations that burn more than 250,000 tonnes of coal every day to supply what is among the cheapest electricity in the Western world. The downside is every station releases thousands of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
The federal Government has gone a long way to support the coal industry, risking international opprobrium by refusing to sign the Kyoto protocol - a treaty that seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by putting a price on carbon dioxide. ................
noirua said:The efforts by Gail ( India ) Ltd to build an underground coal or lignite Gasification Plants looks to be another way forward. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2006/02/18/stories/2006021803170200.htm
michael_selway said:All of them up today as EXL merger
MCC, CEY, GCL, but not FLX and CNA
thx
MS
noirua said:Thermal Coal prices are set to increase in the next round of price agreements. Check the coal stocks and work out their production, production costs and likely increase in profits, as many are now forgotten.
China still rules on demand: http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070119/19/125j6.html
Uranium, Gold, nickel, Tin...don't forget Thermal Coal.
noirua said:Thermal Coal prices are set to increase in the next round of price agreements. Check the coal stocks and work out their production, production costs and likely increase in profits, as many are now forgotten.
China still rules on demand: http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070119/19/125j6.html
Uranium, Gold, nickel, Tin...don't forget Thermal Coal.
Each year the increase in Chinese coal consumption is far greater than the total amount that Australia uses. A point of major significance to both the coal market and the climate change debate.In December, Xinhua news agency reported that China's coal use was likely to increase to 2.5 billion tonnes in 2007. Government data gives 2005 coal consumption at 2.2 billion tonnes
Garpal Gumnut said:Dear Noirua,
Which are the specialty thermal stocks? I just use BHP, RIO as an entry to coal which probably dilutes any movements in prices for me as they are into so many other resources.
Garpal
noirua said:Hi, making profits on coal production can be very hard work, note the Radio Report yesterday my CEY. There is a need to do a lot of research on what types of coal a company has at each mine and the costs versus position of the mine. Longwall mining can present many problems.
It will be a while yet before the new coal loader is commissioned at Newcastle. Seventy ships are reported to be at anchor waiting. Demurrage costs are racking up.
Many, including Peabody, Xstrata and Felix Resources, are waiting go-aheads on thermal coal mines in NSW. These would be combined with the new port extension at Newcastle that also awaits a go-ahead.
Companies like MCC and CEY, are beset with problems, and may come good if they manage to overcome these. FLX mines mostly thermal coal, but is treble the price it was less than 12 months ago and there is a gamble factor concerning the extension of the Newcastle port and the Moolarben go-ahead. Coal and Allied are the largest Aussie in the thermal coal sector; Like FLX their key assets are in the Hunter Valley via Newcastle.
A long answer in what remains a quite risky sector.
An interesting link: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/11/bloomberg/sxasia.php
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