Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CNP - Centro Properties Group

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$$Punt$$ said:
Accumulating another 100,000 CNP shares today hoping the saying is right, Buy Low and Sell High. Taking a big gamble guys! No venture No Gains, No guts No glory....sound familiar?;)
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Sounds like a gamble to me. Have you done analysis or are just buying because it used to be a lot higher?

There are plenty of stocks out there with profits, no debt or legal actions, trading on low PEs etc etc, personally i would rather hold the others...
 
the foundamental of Centro hasn't changed much during recent SP decline. as the whole financial sector get the botton again, now we see big chance for a moderate recovery. CER has a very strong support around 35c, because this is based on the 1.4c dividend, which brings investors 8% annual dividend yield. cnp doesn't make any distribution yet... but its valuation should not be too far away from CER. so I agree now it's a buy point for both cnp and cer. tomorrow is the EX dividend day for cer, sp could get lower a bit, if u want low risk, high return, cer is a better choice than cnp. cnp is just more risky than cer, and the return is higher. i think buying cer tomorrow is not a gamble at all, it's a very wise long term investment. if the SP doesn't drop under 33c, the market is confident about its future. the very bottom SP for cer should be 28c at 10% dividend yield. see what happens tomorrow. for cnp, cant calculate a bottom price, and the market give it a very safe price zone to buy, around 20c, you have nothing to lose. potential good news for Centro includes: good result of law suit, re-open of morgage security market, take over from outside, sale of assets. all these could happen before this Dec.
 
$$PUNT$$ : good for you. You must have a lot of spare cash. I would buy another 100,000 too if I had that much money lying around. I could buy 10,000 or maybe 20,000 and that would be the most cash I would give it, and I mean shares not dollars. I will see how the SP goes over next few days, then I may spend a few more thousand on it and hopefully have a very merry christmas on the profits, hmm
 
Why do you say CER is low risk whereas CNP is high risk? If CNP dissolves, crashes, burns etc. then so does CER no? Doesn't CER's future depend on CNP's survival ? How is it then please explain if you can without too much trouble. thanks

MU002 said:
the foundamental of Centro hasn't changed much during recent SP decline. as the whole financial sector get the botton again, now we see big chance for a moderate recovery. CER has a very strong support around 35c, because this is based on the 1.4c dividend, which brings investors 8% annual dividend yield. cnp doesn't make any distribution yet... but its valuation should not be too far away from CER. so I agree now it's a buy point for both cnp and cer. tomorrow is the EX dividend day for cer, sp could get lower a bit, if u want low risk, high return, cer is a better choice than cnp. cnp is just more risky than cer, and the return is higher. i think buying cer tomorrow is not a gamble at all, it's a very wise long term investment. if the SP doesn't drop under 33c, the market is confident about its future. the very bottom SP for cer should be 28c at 10% dividend yield. see what happens tomorrow. for cnp, cant calculate a bottom price, and the market give it a very safe price zone to buy, around 20c, you have nothing to lose. potential good news for Centro includes: good result of law suit, re-open of morgage security market, take over from outside, sale of assets. all these could happen before this Dec.
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although cnp and cer belong to one group, the Centro, they are seperately listed. I read from here that cer has direct ownership over properties and cer has smaller US exposure. maybe that's why cer can still make distribution, because the US asset valuse loss in cer is less than in cnp. in the worst case, banks make a fire sale after this Dec, cer investors have bigger chance to have some money back, because the portofolio is much smaller and higher tangible assets back. that's why i think cer has less risk. the recent dividend give cer some base to do a valuation, and cnp still has not. the SP itself is telling us that cer is safer than cnp with high price and less volitility. a safe price for cnp still need to be determined by the market. but the price for cer has much more certainty. I sell my cer today and wait to see the SP tomorrow. but I buy more cnp today because I still have confident in the commercial property value and most important, cnp is so cheap now. I can afford to hold for years, and buy more when the SP get even lower. make ur decision according to ur own situation.
 
if CNP hits the wall so does CER..don't understand how it can be any different at this stage...
...lets not forget the court hearing on the 27 june...this friday..i would sell thurs and buy friday..both CNP and CER will surely dip on friday's media flogging..(this is if no ann. about asset sales is made before then)
 
vida said:
$$PUNT$$ : good for you. You must have a lot of spare cash. I would buy another 100,000 too if I had that much money lying around. I could buy 10,000 or maybe 20,000 and that would be the most cash I would give it, and I mean shares not dollars. I will see how the SP goes over next few days, then I may spend a few more thousand on it and hopefully have a very merry christmas on the profits, hmm
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Hey Vida,
I wish you good luck and other investors/ punters and hope the boat doesn't sink cos if it does, we all go down...haha. I don't have spare cash but I dispose my other shares to invest/ gamble in CNP cos my gut feeling tells me when the positive announcement come, CNP should skyrocket and should be able to achieve 50c in my opinion quite easily. Its anyone guess when the announcement will come but I am prepared to wait and hopefully, my patience will pay off. Then in hindsight, I will kick myself for not buying bought more. I think it is a good gamble, buy what you can afford and keep. DOYR
 
Interesting article today in the australian about how 'short selling helped bring down centro'..and a 'parliamentary enquiry into short selling'...I wonder if centro's lawyers will use any of this to show how this practice without any disclosure laws guarding short selling, compounded shareholder loses dramatically...
 
From another forum,

Someone has stumbled across a PDF outlining the sales of some of the Centro properties.

Apparently a search with google resulted in the following PDF

http://centroportfolio.com/Portfolio Overview FINAL.pdf.


Some key notes from the PDF


1)Release of preliminary information: Monday 2 June, 2008 (Access to Financials post receipt of CA)

2)Receipt of first round bids: 12 Noon, Thursday 10 July, 2008

3)Confirmation of shortlist: 12 Noon, Wednesday 16 July, 2008 (Access to data room provided)

4)Close of final bids: 12 Noon, Thursday 14 August,2008

5)Execution of unconditional contracts: By Friday 15 August, 2008


Page 13 also talking about keeping the management rights..



WOW!! this might explain the huge volume the last hour of the day + green.

Cheers
 
Docs now disappeared off the site. Wonder why.

Appeared legit, the domain is owned by by those linked to it.
 
Not an article dude, its a 26 page sale portfolio of Centro assets prepared by Jones Lang Lasalle.

about 2.7mb.

Ill try rapidshare it and post a link.
 
uahmad said:
Not an article dude, its a 26 page sale portfolio of Centro assets prepared by Jones Lang Lasalle.

about 2.7mb.

Ill try rapidshare it and post a link.
Click to expand...

That's great. I am sure there will be a lot of comments about it from CNP shareholders. Looking forward to see the sale portfolio.
 
Yes...lets hope it overcomes any negatives from tomorrows court hearing..don't know if it will though..
 
gensis1 said:
if CNP hits the wall so does CER..don't understand how it can be any different at this stage...
...lets not forget the court hearing on the 27 june...this friday..i would sell thurs and buy friday..both CNP and CER will surely dip on friday's media flogging..(this is if no ann. about asset sales is made before then)
Click to expand...

Hey gensis1,

Did u sell today? Mayb there will be some positive news from the court hearing 2moro.......fingers crossed. I am not selling mine cos u never know 2moro's market.
 
$$Punt$$ said:
Hey gensis1,

Did u sell today? Mayb there will be some positive news from the court hearing 2moro.......fingers crossed. I am not selling mine cos u never know 2moro's market.
Click to expand...

True...however going on past, and the fact that centro doesn't release any info on hearing, and plaintiffs feed the media with their dribble,I'd say there's a 95% chance media will be negative and sp. dip...
I'm not selling,i've been caught out before on centro run,and paid high price on getting back in...there's still ann. on CAF which is long over due..i decided to ride highs and lows until sept30. Centro should have executed most of its plan by then, to keeps bankers happy til dec 15..
 
oops, i missed out again on buying at lowest SP. Was thinking about it but didn't have time to make decision yesterday whilst too busy at work and today it is up again, but still bargain levels. I will wait to see what tomorrow brings and maybe buy more then, at the moment just holding what is comfortable and perhaps I have reached my risk tolerance levels on this.
 

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