Climate change another name for Weather

[trainspotter]

rederob, I don't think you have any brain at all.

Not nice noco. He does have a brain. I think the word you are looking for is intellect ?

 

[wayneL]

Well let's not go down the name calling route again guys.

I don't want to put my moderators hat on and I'm sure the other mods don't want to either.

Chill, stick to the subject of the debate.

 

[trainspotter]

On the playgrounds of our youth we all heard the old phrase, "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me." Unfortunately, many societal groups seem intent today upon claiming that words too always hurt. Whoever believes this gets to feel hurt a lot and is always at the whim of some person out there. Personal power is lacking..

"Words are weapons, sharper than knives, makes you wonder how the other half die." Michael Hutchence hung himself with his belt strung from a doorknob.

So yeah. Name calling can have a devastating effect. Ner ner ne' ner ner.

 

[2020hindsight]

El Nina

Is that opposite to La Nino ?

oops


Then again neither translates exactly from the Spanish unless you throw in a few "y" consonants/vowels whatever.

El Niño and La Niña
...

(compare Filipino and Filipina I guess)

Hey if that 's the bigget criticism of my post you can find, then I'll consider that you you basically agree with the ghist , ...

namely that there are liars, outliers and out-and-out liars. (also misspelt back there I notice). cheers

PS Maybe I'll just call it the ENSO index in future, not being a native speaking Spaniard. - albeit I find I have to fight a lot of bull lately.

 

[2020hindsight]

to be honest , the typo I'd seriously like to apologise for is in #1591 - where I make reference to the irony of (Richard) Branson and (James) Lovelock being mentioned in the same sentence.

And I end up with Richard Lovelock (??). sheesh. Now there is a man I truly admire, and a far more serious mistake. - in my eyes anyway.

Still we all have our heroes - I have James Lovelock, some of you blokes have the likes of Fred Singer and Tim Ball. (well known "opinions for hire").

...Richard Branson, the British entrepreneur, credits Lovelock with inspiring him to pledge billions of dollars to fight global warming. "Jim is a brilliant scientist who has been right about many things in the past," Branson says. "If he's feeling gloomy about the future, it's important for mankind to pay attention."

Mind you, you have to smile to yourself when you hear Branson and Lovelock mentioned in the same sentence

 

[wayneL]

So yeah. Name calling can have a devastating effect. Ner ner ne' ner ner.

It's not so much that TS, it's that it turns a thread into unreadable garbage for those interested in the debate and not flame wars.

Cheers

<edit to add>It wasn't directed particularly at you either, just that the general tone of the thread was going downhill.

The ludicrous non-sequitur and lame double entedré is annoying enough without ad hominem added to the mix.

 

[2020hindsight]

La Niña translates from Spanish as "the girl-child". The term "La Niña" has recently become the conventional meteorological label for the opposite of the better known El Niño. .............

A La Niña event is sometimes called an anti-ENSO (anti-El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=374209&highlight=enso#post374209

Then there was that humourous bit (if you search for humour in life, you sometimes find it in the most unexpected places) , viz

The name ‘El Niño’ originally was given to a change in the coastal current (usually flowing from south to north) near the Peruvian coast during anos de abundancia. Paita sailors who used to sail north-south direction along the coast called the counter-current ‘El Niño’, after the Child Jesus because it had a tendency to appear soon after Christmas (the reason for this seasonality is not yet fully understood, ...

As an aside, it's amusing to note that in some early papers, the opposite of El Niño was described as the 'anti-El Niño' but given the religious connotations described above, this usage did not get a lot of support

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/el-nino-global-warming/

 

[2020hindsight]

Frequency and severity [of El Niño] are as a result of increased CO2?
Do you have a cite if I've assumed correctly.

spooly, howdy
True there are models that give contradicting answers here.... (quote below - you'll enjoy the fact that some models differ even contradict each other), but...
it is still relevant that 1997-8 was the worst recorded to date - possible exception of 1982-3 ( only a blind optimist would say that's a fluke?)

El Niño events tend to recur every 3-8 years. The last El Niño as of today was in 1997-98, and was the strongest or second strongest (after 1982-83, depending on what you look at) event observed in modern times. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Australia provides an Internet page on ENSO with a nice ENSO wrap-up for up-dated information.

And in any case I guess my point was that you can't reasonably pass the buck for (arguably) the worst high-temperature single year on record (1998) (= weather event)... on another weather pattern.

It's like saying "it's really hot in this room, but that's nothing to do with the weather - it's because the airconditioner burnt out due to yesterday's high temperature" sorta thing - if you get my drift.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/el-nino-global-warming/

How will the El Niño phenomenon be affected by a global warming?
This is what the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the Max-Planck Institute (Germany), Matt Collins of Univ. Reading (U.K.) think. There is even a short entry about global warming and ENSO in Wikipedia. The brevity of this entry may reflect the fact that the question about how ENSO will respond to a global warming is still not settled. However, it seems that one common trait among some climate models is the indication that a global warming may result in a more a general El Niño-type average state (eg. Collins et al. 2005, Climate Dynamics, 24, 89-104. 19 and here).

Analysis by Collins of climate model simulations indicated that increased CO2 may result in ENSO events becoming larger in amplitude and more frequent than under present conditions. This conclusion was based on version 2 of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM2). However, in a subsequent analysis based on version 3 of the Hadley Model (HadCM3), Collins found that he could not detect a change in magnitude or frequency of ENSO as greenhouse gases increased, thus contradicting the results of his earlier study. These differences highlight the level of uncertainty associated with ENSO and global warming.

wiki gives this :-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENSO
But El Niño's effects on weather vary with each event, and ENSO's intensity or frequency may change as a result of global warming. Research suggests that treating ocean warming which occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific separately from that of the central tropical Pacific may help explain some of these variations

:topic
sheesh looking back at that poll end of last year - 28% don't even believe it's getting warmer!! - wow. Hoostn we have a problem
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13752&highlight=enso

 

[2020hindsight]

As for that long range forecasting stuff ( and indeed I heard them say that in the old days, they simply based their predictions on the plot of sea temperature - checked the last time it was similar to that , and forecast it would all happen again ... but I digress. ) Here's what the BOM's ENSO Wrap-up has to say ...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

ENSO Wrap-Up
A regular commentary on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
About El Niño & La Niña
CURRENT STATUS as at 8th July 2009
Summary: Strong indicators of El Niño persist

Indicators suggest an El Niño event is developing across the Pacific Basin. Conditions have reached a point that, should they persist at such levels through the remainder of the southern winter and into spring, 2009 will be considered an El Niño year.

Leading climate models indicate that warming of the Pacific will continue for the next few seasons, with very little chance of the current development stalling or reversing.

Continuing El Niño signals include central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures around 1 °C above average, and supporting sub-surface temperatures up to 4 °C warmer than normal. Trade winds remain weaker than average, and there is an emerging signal of enhanced cloudiness near the date-line

Conversely, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose over the past week to near zero. However, this would appear to be a response to local weather conditions near Darwin and Tahiti, rather than a long-term climate signal, and hence the SOI is likely to fall again in the weeks ahead.

El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

On the other hand ...

After many weeks of positive values, the most recent value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), was slightly negative [ = wetter]. In the past, positive IOD values have been associated with drier conditions through south east Australia in winter and spring.

Summary...
If you're not confused, then you don't understand what's going on.

:topic
sheesh looking back at that poll end of last year - 28% don't even believe it's getting warmer!! - wow. Hoostn we have a problem
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13752&highlight=enso

Can't understand what all the fuss is about with this GW! - Why don't folks just turn up their damned air conditioners like we do? .

 

[spooly74]

a) it was a single year of high value which coincided with El Nina - and of course el Nina's are part and parcel of the problem of GW/CC in any case i.e. their frequency and severity are all due to GW - but moving on

It's like saying "it's really hot in this room, but that's nothing to do with the weather - it's because the airconditioner burnt out due to yesterday's high temperature" sorta thing - if you get my drift.

You should try and eliminate these absolute throw-away comments

However, in a subsequent analysis based on version 3 of the Hadley Model (HadCM3), Collins found that he could not detect a change in magnitude or frequency of ENSO as greenhouse gases increased, thus contradicting the results of his earlier study. These differences highlight the level of uncertainty associated with ENSO and global warming.

 

[Calliope]

Something tells me i'd have to do a lot more than that for you to be able to make sense out of anything

Well give it a go anyway. This thread is a good place to practice a little common sense. For starters try taking an opposite tack to 2020.

 

[2020hindsight]

It's like saying "it's really hot in this room, but that's nothing to do with the weather - it's because the airconditioner burnt out due to yesterday's high temperature" sorta thing - if you get my drift.

You should try and eliminate these absolute throw-away comments

ok - you didn't get my drift.
I'll try rephrasing it.
GW includes sea temperature effects
ENSO is all about sea temp effects
wowo - maybe they're related?

 

[Calliope]

ok - you didn't get my drift.
I'll try rephrasing it.
GW includes sea temperature effects
ENSO is all about sea temp effects
wowo - maybe they're related?

I get the feeling you've had a night on the turps.

 

[2020hindsight]

I get the feeling you've had a night on the turps.

just relax calliope, and let it all go over your head... less stressful for you.

 

[Calliope]

just relax calliope, and let it all go over your head... less stressful for you.

It doesn't seem fair that while I'm relaxing, you have to burn the midnight oil to make up for lost time to get your daily quota back up.

 

[spooly74]

ok - you didn't get my drift.
I'll try rephrasing it.
GW includes sea temperature effects
ENSO is all about sea temp effects
wowo - maybe they're related?

Saying "maybe they're related" and "their frequency and severity are all due to GW" are two very different statements. That's my drift.

 

[trainspotter]

"It wasn't directed particularly at you either, just that the general tone of the thread was going downhill" - wayneL

No sweat brother. My hands never left my wrists at any time. But I do enjoy watching OTHERS go tête-à-tête at times. I find it amazing that it depends on what mood you are in as to how one can interpret the written word.

 

[Smurf1976]

The lack of scientific reasoning on that site is a worry - that's the problem i have with all the sceptics, never enough reasoning and study involved in their arguments - half of it's put together by people with very little scientific background and the other half comes from people with vested interests.

They leave out too much very important information.

That applies to a large portion of what is said by both sides of this argument.

Very little research, in any field, is done for the sake of it. It's funded by someone with an agenda, usually economic or political. They're paying good money and expect an outcome that supports their economic or political objectives. As with any job, if you don't deliver what the boss wants then they won't keep paying you for long.

 

[drsmith]

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are essentially a measure of the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (SOI) and the equatorial Indian Ocean (IOD).

Warmer than normal waters off the eastern equatorial Pacific is what results in a negative SOI and an El Niño. Warmer water is essentially displaced further eastwards across the tropical Pacific and the rainfall fallows resulting in drier than normal conditions over Australia/SE Asia. The IOD works in the same way with a positive (drier phase for Australia) associated with a westward displacement of warmer water in the equatorial Indian Ocean.

These two factors are currently pulling in opposite directions with tropical Pacific SST anomalies trending towards and El Niño (drier) and equatorial Indian Ocean SST anomalies trending towards a -ve (wetter) IOD phase.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif
(Note: Internet explorer may not accept security certificate of above site)

Generally speaking individual SOI/IOD events are on the scale of around a year however shorter phase variations in the atmosphere can temporarily mask the effects of these longer phase events. This appears to be what is currently happening with the Pacific (SOI) side of the equation with the net result being the current active period for cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia.

 

[2020hindsight]

Saying "maybe they're related" and "their frequency and severity are all due to GW" are two very different statements. That's my drift.

OK Even if I accept that one - (although there were two models, one shows relation, one is inconclusive - never mind , we move on) .. but does it change the conclusion?

spooly - please answer this one then..

How do you think a Uni Maths Professor would react to the claim that "the graph below justifies dismissing GW because it shows that the world has been warming since 1998?",

- a statement so often repeated by Andrew Bolt and others. ?

Or would you consider that spindoctoring of the stats, and unscientific.
(to say nothing of ignoring the multiple forcing functions at work here)

I'll repeat my post so that you can see where I was heading.

Would be great if you answered in a commital way, one way or the other.

One last comment about the assertion (by Bolt and others) that the world has been cooling since 1998.
a) it was a single year of high value which coincided with El Nina - and of course el Nina's are part and parcel of the problem of GW/CC in any case i.e. their frequency and severity are all due to GW - but moving on
b) were the results averaged it would show the continued upward trend, especially when the lesser solar activity was deducted to show the continuning increasing contribution of CO2
c) 1998 was an "outlier" - i.e. a statistical blip - a bit like the diving judges when they ignore the top and mottom arks and average the rest.
d) as they also say, there are liars, outliers, and out-an-out liers.

PS try telling your Uni maths professor that that you'd like to do a PhD on the subject, and your first comment was that you'd looked at the data, and it's clear that
a) the world has generally been cooling since 1998 (based on one spike), and
b) that proves that the ghg contribution in particular is a furphy
I'm guessing you'd be laughed out of the faculty.

Hell, half the time the same people who say a) is true ...
also agree that b) is currently influenced by a slow start to the next possibly milder 11-12 yearly solar cycle

PS:-

out·li·er ... A value far from most others in a set of data.