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Climate change another name for Weather

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wayneL said:
What has changed is solar output. Sunspot activity is at a low point "eerily calm" according to scientists.

This is undoubtedly the cause of the recent cold spell and further conclusions may be reached from this.

links
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sciencean...pots-gone.html
http://insciences.org/article.php?article_id=981
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There are no surprises here.
Solar irradiance has a known impact on temperature.
We are presently at the weakest point of the solar (11 year) cycle, viz:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080512120523.htm

I the climate models and hemispheric variations run true, the northern hemisphere's weather is likely to run to greater extremes.

The reason there has been a name shift from AGW to CC is largely due to the fact that anomalies can give an appearance that "warming" has disappeared. The warming trend is global and decadal.
One cold winter does not mean there will also be a cool summer. In the northern hemisphere the temperature ranges should increase.
 
For interest:

While you guys are down there sweltering in the Aussie summer, spare a thought for us expats shivering our @sses off up here in England.

At the moment it is -11 degrees according to the weather station about 1.5 miles up the road, which is extraordinarily cold for around here.
 

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wayneL said:
For interest:

While you guys are down there sweltering in the Aussie summer, spare a thought for us expats shivering our @sses off up here in England.

At the moment it is -11 degrees according to the weather station about 1.5 miles up the road, which is extraordinarily cold for around here.
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Bah, humbug!

It's *only* 39C today in Albury-Wodonga. Thongs 'n stubbies weather, mate. :)

Chiz,


aj
 
wayneL said:
For interest:

While you guys are down there sweltering in the Aussie summer, spare a thought for us expats shivering our @sses off up here in England.

At the moment it is -11 degrees according to the weather station about 1.5 miles up the road, which is extraordinarily cold for around here.
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No wonder the English and Irish left to populate the world.
I was an expat. once and was amazed how many pommies work in places like Indonesia and Hong Kong. Now i understand why!
 
Knobby22 said:
No wonder the English and Irish left to populate the world.
I was an expat. once and was amazed how many pommies work in places like Indonesia and Hong Kong. Now i understand why!
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Well there are warm weather people and there are cold weather people. I hate the heat.

> 18 ° and I'm whingeing like billyo. LOL

-11 ° is a tad chilly though.
 
wayneL said:
For interest:

While you guys are down there sweltering in the Aussie summer, spare a thought for us expats shivering our @sses off up here in England.

At the moment it is -11 degrees according to the weather station about 1.5 miles up the road, which is extraordinarily cold for around here.
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Maybe all the boffins have it wrong and it is actually the dawning of a new Ice Age? Wooly mammoths anyone? :confused:
 
wayneL said:
explod

You may have noticed that we're all trying to be a bit nicer to each other, I t would help if you did the same.

Cheers
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In a serious matter, being nice may be too high a price to pay if it dilutes the facts.

And if all else fails I have noticed that those opposing action to curb global warming are fast to change the subject or get some posts up to dilute the scrutiny of material with substance.
 
explod said:
In a serious matter, being nice may be too high a price to pay if it dilutes the facts.

And if all else fails I have noticed that those opposing action to curb global warming are fast to change the subject or get some posts up to dilute the scrutiny of material with substance.
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So being a rude tosspot is going to solve the alleged problem?

Mate, you're behind the curve and been consistently and laughingly off pat with the science. Leave the rebuttals to Red, at least it is done with intelligence.

Or maybe you can tell us how you are reducing your impact on this planet?

Unbelievable. :banghead:
 
explod said:
In a serious matter, being nice may be too high a price to pay if it dilutes the facts.

And if all else fails I have noticed that those opposing action to curb global warming are fast to change the subject or get some posts up to dilute the scrutiny of material with substance.
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You get a lot further if you are diplomatic.
 
This has probably been covered and nuked by the skeptics but thought the following letter published in the Weekend Australian 3-4thjan is worth noting by the faithful.



Quote:
High school physics gives a simple explanation to the question why it is getting colder if the planet is overheating...(quote of previous letter) ...the polar icecap is melting. When ice melts, it absorbs an enourmous amount of heat from the environment (the latent heat of fusion ice) and the atmosphere in the polar regions becomes cold. The wind from the polar regions carries this "coldness" to the rest of the world. Once all the ice is melted, warming will set in and we will really feel the heat. By that time, it will be too late to save the world. We must act now. Bill of Parkville, Vic



No one has countered this post that I put up a few days ago.

So being a rude tosspot is going to solve the alleged problem?

Mate, you're behind the curve and been consistently and laughingly off pat with the science. Leave the rebuttals to Red, at least it is done with intelligence.

Or maybe you can tell us how you are reducing your impact on this planet?

Unbelievable
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What is unbelievable?

The science, you yourself have said many times that it is hokus pokus.

Grow most of my own vegitables, using water from the roof, which also saves on plastic rapping, transport to market, unclogging the roads etc., and etc. And working on a few ideas. Stirring you up prolly creating a bit more attention to the subject must help.

And who says this thread is only for the GW scientifically savvy
 
explod said:
This has probably been covered and nuked by the skeptics but thought the following letter published in the Weekend Australian 3-4thjan is worth noting by the faithful.



Quote:
High school physics gives a simple explanation to the question why it is getting colder if the planet is overheating...(quote of previous letter) ...the polar icecap is melting. When ice melts, it absorbs an enourmous amount of heat from the environment (the latent heat of fusion ice) and the atmosphere in the polar regions becomes cold. The wind from the polar regions carries this "coldness" to the rest of the world. Once all the ice is melted, warming will set in and we will really feel the heat. By that time, it will be too late to save the world. We must act now. Bill of Parkville, Vic



No one has countered this post that I put up a few days ago.
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Yes they have. You must try reading the posts.

The problem with that hypothesis (if it had any validity in the first place) is that the arctic ice has been increasing since it's low point of two seasons ago. I have shown this, and you can see for yourself by bringing up comparative satellite images.

Anyone following along, will accept that it is more to do with dropping solar output, whether an AGWer or not.

See the links I posted further up.


What is unbelievable?

The science, you yourself have said many times that it is hokus pokus.

Grow most of my own vegitables, using water from the roof, which also saves on plastic rapping, transport to market, unclogging the roads etc., and etc. And working on a few ideas. Stirring you up prolly creating a bit more attention to the subject must help.
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That's good to hear. Your concern is commendable and is probably better directed at those things which your actions actually benifit

And who says this thread is only for the GW scientifically savvy
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The thing is, if your going to comment on the science, you must be reasonably au fait with it, otherwise you will be fooled by junk science (which there is on both sides of the debate).

Frankly, the melting ice hypothesis causing this cold spell is real junk.
 
Moving away from non-renewable fossil fuels as much as possible makes sense as it is finite resource.

Melting Polar Regions and freezing up whole planet is nothing new, problem is never before planet had to support so many humans, and hence moving toward any extreme will prove catastrophic.
 
rederob said:
There is no credible science that supports this.
Link to here for areal extents:
http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
Arctic sea ice remains well below median extents and continues on a dramatic long term trend of decline.
The linked website provides opportunities to compare sea ice coverage by month and year to 30 years ago.
Aside from the "areal" issue, Arctic sea ice is thinning.
By and large oceanography and temporal weather patterns can explain the present levels of Arctic sea ice, which remain at the lowest quartile since reliable records have been kept.
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What statitics are used, and where are they gathered from, to form the medium?

30 years ago? That is hardly reliable considering the life of the planet. Satellite records go back to 1979 according to the video link you provided previously. Do we know the sea ice coverage back over one hundred years or for that matter over a thousand years?
 
It's Snake Pliskin said:
What statitics are used, and where are they gathered from, to form the medium?

30 years ago? That is hardly reliable considering the life of the planet. Satellite records go back to 1979 according to the video link you provided previously. Do we know the sea ice coverage back over one hundred years or for that matter over a thousand years?
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As the Arctic Ocean is almost 100% covered with sea ice during coldest periods, the areal extents are determined at the margins, ie into the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans until melt periods again take over. Mapping reductions below 100% coverage, when they occur, provides an exceptionally reliable data record.
What about records 100 years ago, or one thousand years ago?
What would they prove if they were available?
We are talking about contemporary matters of climate change that are occurring at an unprecedented rate.
 
I believe I've read in recent posts that icecaps (Arctic) are ok - I seem to recall a photo which showed less ice in Gulf of Finland this year, which is consistent to a previous post I'm made (twice I believe) that, due to a 300 year return period event, - absense of sea ice etc - the seal pups born to that date will almost certainly not survive.

Also that the polar bears and (presumably the other arctic animals) are not in any distress.

Here's what Tim Flannery would say on a number of arctic species ...

general
The Arctic as a region is almost a mirror image of the south, for while the Antarctic is a frozen continent surrounded by an immensely rich ocean, the Arctic is a frozen ocean almost surrounded by land. Most of its 4 million inhabitants live on the fringe, and it’s there, in places like southern Alaska, that winters are 2 – 3degC warmer than they were just 30 years ago.
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spruce beetle etc
Among the most visible impacts of climate change anywhere on Earth are those wrought by the spruce bark beetle. Over the past 15 years, it has killed some 40 million trees in southern Alaska, more than any other insect in Nth America’s recorded history. Two hard winters are usually enough to control beetle numbers, but a run of mild winters in recent years has seen them rage out of control.
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migrating birds
The Arctic ecosystem is extremely fragile, and subtle changes such as a season with less snow but more rain can have enormous impacts. In 2004 the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was published. It documents many changes, as well as projecting more to come … If warming trends persist, forests will expand northwards destroying the tundra. Several hundred million birds migrate to these treeless regions to breed .. the birds look set to lose more than 50% of heir nesting habitat this century alone. … (PS and dark forests will absorb heat compared to the snow covered tundra – albedo).
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lemmings
Collared lemmings are superbly adapted to life in the cryosphere – coats turn white in the winter etc

The report states that the collared lemming will be extinct before the end of the century. Perhaps all that will be left then will be a folk memory of the small suicidal rodent. But the real tragedy will be that the lemmings didn’t jump, they were pushed.
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caribou / reindeer
The number of (small) Pery caribou dropped from 26,000 in 1961 to 1000 in 1997. In 1991 it was classified as endangered – no longer can be hunted by the Inuit. Similar problems observed in Finland. “During Autumn, weather fluctuates so much there is rain and mild weather. As the water freezes, reindeer cannot access the lichen and - different to previous years - the reindeer has to claw to force the lichen out, and the whole plant comes out complete with bases. – takes extremely long to regenerate.

Also flooding rivers kill thousands of calves as they migrate. In short, as climate change advances, it seems that the Arctic will no longer be suitable habitat for caribou.
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seals
The plight of the harp seals in the Gulf of St Lawrence gives a clear idea of the shape of things to come. Like the ringed seals, they can raise no pups when there is little or no sea ice present – which happened to them in 1967, 1981, 2000, 2001 and 2003. The run of pupless years that opened this century is worrying . When the run of ice-free years exceeds the reproductive lifre of a female (perhaps a dozen years at most), the species will become extinct.

Likewise ringed, ribbon and bearded seals which also give birth and nurse on the sea ice. Likewise walruses.
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polar bears / nanuk
For polar bears, having sufficient food to live means lots of sea ice. [Polar bears cannot generally catch seals in open water - although one was seen doing so in 1978.] A study of 1200 living in the south of their range - around Hudson Bay - reveals that they are 15% skinnier on average than they were a few decades ago. The feeding season has become just too short for the bears to find enough food, and 15% is a lot of body fat to lose before hibernation.

With each year, starving females give birth to fewer cubs – some decades ago, triplets were common, they are now unheard of. Back then about half the cubs were weaned and feeding themselves at 18 months – whilst today that number is less than one in twenty. … Early break up of ice can separate denning and feeding areas; as young cubs cannot swim the distances required to find food, when this happens they will simply starve to death.

When nanuk (polar bear) is fit and well fed, he will strip the blubber from a fat seal, leaving the rest for the scavengers … arctic fox, ivory gulls etc. At certain times and places these animals are dependent on nanuk, as there is no other giver of bounty in this forbidding land. … The ivory gull has already declined by 90% in Canada over the past 20 years.

It looks as if the loss of the nanuk may mark the beginning of the collapse of the entire Arctic ecosystem. A few polar bears may eke out a living on a diet of lemming, carrion and sea-caught seals, but they’ll be so thin that they will not wake up from winter’s sleep.
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