CLF - Community Life

[Nathan_b]

Hey all,
Just thought id drop a line and ask what everyone thinks of this company. here is there website. www.communitylife.com.au it is a company which has old age care facilities opening around nsw and qld at present, shares coming afloat on next week, thought it looks like a interesting stock, initial price is $1.00 a share. paying a dividend.

 

[kooka1956]

Re: COMMUNITY LIFE

Hey all,
Just thought id drop a line and ask what everyone thinks of this company. here is there website. www.communitylife.com.au it is a company which has old age care facilities opening around nsw and qld at present, shares coming afloat on next week, thought it looks like a interesting stock, initial price is $1.00 a share. paying a dividend.

Good morning Nathan . In my other life I happen to be an entertainer for senior citizens . Each year from now to 2026 there will be an additional 10,000 seniors on average reaching 80 years old. i.e. in 2026 their will be an additional 200,000 plus people at this age or above (researched this field four years ago .Aust Bureau of Stastics Info.) This is because of the baby boomers "maturing" and advances in medical technology .Not all will require a home to live in as Governments are spending a lot on HACC (home and community care) trying to keep people as much as possible in their own homes but certainly it is a growing field . Prime Life 10 years ago ran perhaps only a half dozen facilities , it is now over 60 . It is a growing industry , and if they do their homework , will make steadily increasing turnover . Regards KOOKA

 

[ghotib]

Re: COMMUNITY LIFE

Hi Kooka: Snap!! I too entertain and am entertained by senior cits. What's your act - I'm a singer and choir director.

Nathan, there's no question about the expanding market, though as a fairly early baby boomer I think people are a bit premature in their excitement - i don't see myself in retirement accomodation for at least 20 years. I'm interested in Community Life's rental model - it's a cleaner and much more predictable income stream than the deferred management fee system used by a lot of retirement villages. The difficulty appears to be that income is directly tied to the government aged pension, and there's no guarantees about how adequate that will be to cover costs, let alone generate an acceptable return on your investment dollar over the long term.

I should declare a bias here. I think public companies are an inappropriate vehicle for aged care. I know Community Life is a housing company, not a nursing home or a care facility, but as people get older the line between housing and care gets very blurry. I'd expect costs to rise faster than the pension for all the services Community Life now provides, and they're already high enough that the services in many privately held and not-for-profit aged care services are compromised. There's not much economy of scale in personal services, and that's what the elderly need (as do small children; I don't like child care companies either). I just don't see any way for this industry to generate an acceptable return to shareholders without lowering the quality of services to its customers below what I want to accept for myself or my family.

Still, I haven't read the prospectus. Go through the numbers yourself and see what you think.

Good luck,

Ghoti

 

[Bingo]

Re: COMMUNITY LIFE

We also have Aevum listing on Thursday. This was previously the Hibernian Building Society. Any comments on how it's model compares with community life?

Bingo

 

[ghotib]

Re: COMMUNITY LIFE

We also have Aevum listing on Thursday. This was previously the Hibernian Building Society. Any comments on how it's model compares with community life?

Bingo

Were you asking me that? I can't answer: I did take a look at the website, but couldn't get to the prospectus and I couldn't get enough information from the site alone. I know that village accomodation is one of their offerings, but I don't know anything about the payment methods.

Cheers,

Ghoti

 

[kooka1956]

Re: COMMUNITY LIFE

Hi Ghotib . I have forwarded a private email re. current employment .Regards KOOKA

 

[Bingo]

CLF floated 19 Nov 2004 and had a first day close of 98c. They have had steady falls since which is really a bad sign.

On 12 Dec 2004 they released a statement saying that their prospectus forecast for 2004/2005 was on track and they expected that they would meet the prospectus forecast dividend which was 6.5c franked. On 12 Dec a Director bought 20,000 shares at 80.3c and on 20 Dec another Director bought 20,000 shares at 84.0c.

These are positive signs. On a current forecast franked yield of 7.9% (market price 82c) they look a great investment.

I am however nervous and just watching.

Has anyone any information or comments on this one.

Bingo

 

[louie]

Re: Community Life CLF

Another Director has brought 17,500 shares today, -- 11th Jan 2005. At $0.83. Do you think they might know something we don't. Very interesting, must keep an eye out.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Community Life CLF

$15000 worth of shares is a token jesture.

If there was something cooking they would mortgage the house.

Wouldnt you!

Charts rather ho hum.Just settling.

 

[Bingo]

Re: Community Life CLF

I guess the point I make is nothing needs to be on. If this company simply makes the prospectus forecasts then it will go up to around $1.00

On the other hand the price dip may point to going out the back door. I think the key issue with this share is the quality of management and the directors. More about can they be trusted?

Anyone know anything about their past?

Bingo

 

[stockman]

CLF 11.1% yield

Stock that has been forgotten will pay 6.5 cents per share fully franked based on a share price of I reckon you'd get it at 58.5cents 11.1% fully franked.

They are a retirement village with $15 million in cash. No brokers do any reports on the stock as it is too small and no one really knows anything about it. It listed in November.

Cash is in the bank for dividend to be paid in october.


Any thoughts? I think it is undervalued NTA was 53 cents last time i checked.

Looks good.

 

[stockman]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

Anyone got any thoughts? :bier:

 

[silent knight]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

Their Half year report seemed to make them interesting, which is where I guess you got your information. Huntley gives their NTA at 24c. I'm inclined to wait and watch as the div is only a forecast div, not locked in. Still it is interesting.

 

[stockman]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

The dividend is pretty much a certainty from what i've heard from management. BBY the brokers that floated them will have a report soon, which will point out that they've done even BETTER than their prospectus forcasts as the Bendigo Village wasn't even in their plans!!

The 10% - 11% fully franked yield is a certainty !!

Directors have bought little parcels around the mid 80 cent mark you can get the stock at 60 cents or maybe even a little cheaper.

Most brokers are basing their NTA and figures like EPS only on their first half results what needs to be taken into account is their next half, which give CLF an NTA of 53 cents. EPS of about 11 as well not 5.5 or 4.5 that some research houses are posting. Time will tell but if you've got a little cash that you can use to get in before october i'd be buying.

I own a fair amount of the stock at around the 60 cent level.

 

[stockman]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

up 3% today on small volume one good announcment and its back to 80 cents.

Do your own research.

 

[Fleeta]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

Stockman you must be Chicken's brother!

 

[stockman]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

who the hell is chicken?

and what has he got to do with the stock community life?

 

[Fleeta]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

Sorry stockman if you are not chicken. I was thrown off by the 'do your own research' comment, which seems to be chicken's catch cry as well.

So you aren't chicken, but how do I know you are stockman and not stockwoman? That is the question...

Off the topic...what do you think the male/female ratio is in here? I reckon it would have to be 90/10...does anybody agree that the share market and trading is something that appeals more to men than it does to women?

 

[stockman]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

CLF establishing property trust to capitalise on growing market. Another announcement. 6.5 cents per share seems to be a capital return not a dividend. capital return of 11.2% !!! Get in the stock looks a great long term story at very cheap current levels!

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Re: CLF 11.1% yield

CLF establishing property trust to capitalise on growing market. Another announcement. 6.5 cents per share seems to be a capital return not a dividend. capital return of 11.2% !!! Get in the stock looks a great long term story at very cheap current levels!

Not even for a 11.2% return you should get into that share, look how many people are buying (close to nil 6 buyers at the moment), you'll be lucky if you can sell it at any price.