CKF - Collins Foods

[tech/a]

I'll mark up the Chart when I get a chance hopefully it will help.

 

[Ann]

I'll mark up the Chart when I get a chance hopefully it will help.

Thanks, John I would be interested to see your take.

Now another new trick with volumes I worked out and you confirmed is a volume spike at either a top or bottom which can indicate a reversal in the price. I am seeing just such a spike at the bottom of the recent fall testing $11.

 

[Ann]

The volume Spike is a massive sell off so should be seen as resistance not support

I know we chart differently from each other but I see a support line as any 'proven' line where the price sits above said support line. All or most horizontal support lines behave over their lifetime as either support or resistance, it all depends where the price sits. Currently, the $11.47 would be regarded as a support line, should the price fall below the $11.47 line, then I would regard it as a 'resistance' line and would expect further falls. The rising trendline is currently acting as a resistance line as the price is under the rising support line.

 

[tech/a]

The old support at $11.47 has been broken when the price traded as low as $10.80.
It could be argued that old support at $10.80 has held. $11.47 has no relevance.

 

[mullokintyre]

Well look at this.
Here we have two posters who ,to those of us who don't understand the dark arts of charting, give a pretty good impression of knowing what they are talking about.
Despite having pretty much diametrically opposed views on the subject, they are polite and respectfull of the other persons views.
No derogatory name calling, do perjorative labelling, no histrionics.
Perhaps the rest of us on ASF might take a leaf out of their respective books.
Just sayin.
Mick

 

[Ann]

I sold CKF on Friday as it was showing weakness and was under a lot of overhead and trending resistance. There is now a reason I feel the sale was premature and went into more detail on my Trading Journal thread here... https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/kiss-with-ann.36706/

 

[mullokintyre]

Another good annual report out for CKF, driven by big increases in European division.
Revenue up11%, operating cash flow up from 128mil to 156 mil., dividen up from 1 to 15 cps.
In this environment, more than happy with it.
Market seemed to agree, up over 20% today.
Good long term hold this one.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

And todays result is the complete reverse.
Sales were up 15%, but there was also big increases in costs - wages, transport, energy.
The killer was the reduction in profit, NPAT down 14%, but a half of of this was due to write downs on taco bell assets.
Net cash was down 3.2 million, but net debt was decreased by 6 million.
Dividend maintained at 12 CPS.
Market not happy, SP down 20%.
This is a long term hold for me, so will hoover up some more.
Mick

 

[eskys]

CKF ex dividend on the 5th Dec (next Monday) 12 cents fully franked. I bought yesterday. Just break even at this price, so will hold, watch, and decide tomorrow

 

[mullokintyre]

CKF hit another 52 week low.
Now has fallen nearly 50% from the highs at the start of the year.
The market has spoken, but I think the risk/reward has now turned more towards the reward side.
I am still happy with this one, the queues at KFC dod not seem to be diminishing.
Will not top up until it either displays a turn around in price or gets a newer low approaching the next dividend.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

CKF hit another 52 week low.
Now has fallen nearly 50% from the highs at the start of the year.
The market has spoken, but I think the risk/reward has now turned more towards the reward side.
I am still happy with this one, the queues at KFC dod not seem to be diminishing.
Will not top up until it either displays a turn around in price or gets a newer low approaching the next dividend.
Mick

Had a look.
PE ratio of 16, yield about 3.6%, taco bell growth plans in trouble.

On the plus side, you would expect management to concentrate on the small stuff and increase profitability over next 2 years.

Getting interesting , still, with higher interest rates I would like a lower price to buy in. Put on my watch list.

 

[frugal.rock]

A solid +25% from recent lows.
Will it fill the upside gap?
Not held. I detest their adverts.

 

[frugal.rock]

From Inghams thread, quite pertinent here also, if not more so.

Inghams Group, the country’s largest chicken producer, will hike poultry prices further to recover costs of rising feed, packaging and freight.

Chief executive Andrew Reeves said company, which supplies supermarkets, restaurants and fast-food chains in Australia and New Zealand, would seek to recover its full-cost increases, after the latest round of increases only covered some of its higher costs.




Inghams said its cost of sales increased by 10.9 per cent.

 

[eskys]

Collins Food and Elders took a big dive a fortnight apart a couple of months back. The former heads north, the other yet to catch up.

 

[mullokintyre]

CKF annual report makes for some sober reading.
Sales revenue up 1% tops 1 billion for the first time and a 15 CPS dividend are the good parts
Now for the bad parts.
Despite the increase in sales, net cash flow down 8%.
Profit down 70% after taco bell writedowns.
Net debt up 40 mill.
Inflationary pressures have cut margins, and although the first few months of 2023 have shown further increases in sales, those inflationary pressures have not gone away.
Life will contunue to be tough for CKF.
However, will buy in if price gets below $7.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

CKF annual report makes for some sober reading.
Sales revenue up 1% tops 1 billion for the first time and a 15 CPS dividend are the good parts
Now for the bad parts.
Despite the increase in sales, net cash flow down 8%.
Profit down 70% after taco bell writedowns.
Net debt up 40 mill.
Inflationary pressures have cut margins, and although the first few months of 2023 have shown further increases in sales, those inflationary pressures have not gone away.
Life will contunue to be tough for CKF.
However, will buy in if price gets below $7.
Mick

Well, the market seemed to receive it quite well.
Up10% on the open, which rather puts a bit of a downer on my buying below $7.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Not a lot written about CKF.
After reaching highs of 12.45 at the beginning of the year , its been pretty much in a downward trend since.

The latest news out about a decline in Chicken sales are not going to help.
From Evil Murdoch Press

Times are tough when the cheapest treat or night out for a family on a Friday or Saturday – a bucket of Kentucky Fried Chicken or a McDonald’s family dinner – is off the menu, but that’s the shocking news federal MPs have been delivered.
Consumption of chicken, the cheapest, most popular protein for Australians, who eat 50kg each a year, is down for the first time in decades, and falling sales at KFC and McDonald’s is being seen as a big contributing factor.

MPs at a Parliament House lunch on Tuesday to promote chicken production and consumption with a celebrity chef were told retail research suggested people were visiting KFC and McDonald’s less and were spending less when they did have a night out.

Despite decades of steady growth in chicken consumption MPs were told there was a significant downturn of “high single figures” – between 5 and 9 per cent – in chicken sales at the retail outlets. MPs were also told cutting back on takeaway food was a result of families prioritising “paying the mortgage or the power bill”.

Australia’s biggest chicken producer, Ingham’s, is expected to confirm the fall in consumption in its annual report on Friday. Nationals MP for Hinkler in Queensland, Keith Pitt, said in poorer electorates like his, a Friday night dinner at KFC or McDonald’s was the equivalent of a luxury night out for some.

“Normally as you go around on a Friday or Saturday night the KFC and McDonalds’ drive throughs and restaurants are packed, the queues come out into the street,” he told The Australian on Wednesday. “But not now, they’re deserted. I said publicly recently that the cost of gas was making it difficult to cook a steak and I had people saying they couldn’t afford a steak or to eat out and were buying frozen pies and sausage rolls.”

Globally McDonald’s has recorded its first drop in sales in nearly four years, as customers cut back on takeaway because of the cost-of-living crunch.

According to the McDonald’s figures, sales at locations open for at least a year fell 1 per cent over the April-June period compared with a year earlier.

This was the first decline for McDonald’s since the pandemic.

Collins Foods, which operates 279 KFC outlets in Australia, has reported customers were cutting back on spending in May and June, with same-store sales down 0.8 per cent compared with the same time a year ago.

When the KFC decline was reported, interim chief executive Kevin Perkins said the tougher trading conditions would continue well into 2025.

Looks like things will not get any better for a while.
Mick