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CHN - Chalice Mining

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Kicked on strongly today. "I could just scream" (Captain Binghamton)
Sold 5,000 more @ ~6.61 - might get a higher tier Corolla.

 
From StreetTalk
Chalice Mining is back on investors’ radars, with movement on its share register prompting all sorts of theories about deep-pocketed strategic players buying in.
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Goldman Sachs’ desk crossed a line of 10 million shares, worth close to 3 per cent of the company, at $6.30 a share on Tuesday ... Brokers were quick to suggest it was Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting behind the movement
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Dona Ferentes said:
From StreetTalk
Click to expand...
CHN have literally put a for sale sign out. I’m surprised it’s taken so long for someone to make a play. Maybe it’s just because it’s so big and going to be a huge capex but it’s a through the cycles asset with the right minerals. Going to be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
 
Sold another 10,000 at market (remind me not to do 'at market' again) for 6.178.
Purely chart based and still focused on cash. Not sure, but very uneasy about the chart for a while, since daily low overlapped prior high, then gap down, then fell out of mini contraction 2 days ago, now could be completing a mini head and shoulders - neckline $6, target $5. Can't risk it with my general market apprehension.

Held

Daily
 

Yeah, looked overbought a little while ago, as we discussed. Maybe caused by the TO or JV speculation. The Twiggy and Gina factor. Long term play for me now. Skimming froth and looking forward to dips. If it gets back into the 4s I won't mind, great opportunity once again. Hopefully a surprise to the upside for the next MRE, but I think a lot of expectation is factored in unfortunately.
 
@Sean K BtL covered it on the w/e and did not inspire confidence. As I recall he points out complexity of the processing task with a multi-metal deposit, reckons big plant will cost over a billion for the multiple functions and for the deposit size. Plus the metallurgy is not a fully known yet.
 

Definitely complicated and at least a $1b capex. It's gigantic. It needs a very significant JV'er to take the reins IMO. Who can do a multi-mineral project like this running at 10-20Mt pa? There's only four in the World I think. Glencore, Vale, BHP or RIO.
 
There goes the support level just above $6 for the second time, small head and shoulders above. That's not good. Also $6 was price of last placement, so those ones have to be thinking of getting their money back while they still can? I wouldn't be a buyer of the current chart myself.

Held

Daily
 
The resource upgrade is due next month. Will probably be mosting upgrading the resource to more Indicated but the extension drilling will be interesting. They haven't put enough holes into the blue circle yet but they'll be able to make some of it Inferred I assume. It's hard to tell the dimensions with their cartoons but if there's 330Mt in the pink and orange of the resource then they could be adding another 50-100Mt. So, could be a 400Mt @ 0.6% NiEq deposit next month. Maybe containing 2.2Mt NiEq or more. They should be ditching the SS and go straight to PFS on the back of this.


 
Looking and watching but the bloke in the mirror is mute on this one at the moment.
 
farmerge said:
Looking and watching but the bloke in the mirror is mute on this one at the moment.
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While the SP has come off, it's MC is still $2.2b ish. Hasn't even got a Scoping Study out yet. Complicated met. Going to be a massive Capex. $1-2b range. The bottom of the deposit looks like it's going into the forest. Who knows what sort of purple spotted green tree frog lives in there. Maybe you could go and shift the fences a bit to the north?

It's really hard to put a reasonable value on this and know when to be buying in or taking profits. Maybe it's just all in the charts. We need a feasibility study and NPV/NAV to know more. In-situ value of 2Mt NiEq is about $50b at the moment.

This probably isn't a potential multibagger from here and won't be making money for a very long time. In the orphan period of the Lassonde Curve I think. Short term catalyst will be the MRE upgrade and potential major JV partner or straight out takeover.
 
This is exciting. As I always say, hopefully a surprise to the upside and $400Mt isn't already baked into the SP.

 
All happening in the NiEq space at the moment. MCR and soon the 'strategic partner' / 'junior JV partner' for CHN might come out after the MRE update. I don't think they will get a junior JV partner but someone who wants to actually own it. BHP have missed MCR and that thing in Canada. Will they be too slow in grabbing CHN?

 
The vibe seems to be that BHP overpaid by a mile for OZL, they're usually wrong with their big acquisitions (but right with their divestments, lol), so why not splurge on CHN and keep the tradition alive. What a d'head that Marius Kloppers was. Must admit I was sucked into that persona he put on for the public - the young tyro straring off with visionary intensity, he looked like Rommel. And his Rio counterpart was an ultra d'head - "BHP's offer is short by several ball parks"
 
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