China: stocks to benefit from continued growth?

[The Barbarian Investor]

CHINA-

If I believe CHINA still has a lot of strength left in it and the year of the rooster will be a great year for China’s growth and the resource companies that supply that growth..

then where best would you allocate a percentage of your trading funds?

I’m looking at BSL, BHP, RIO

And thinking about ZFX, JBM

Any thoughts on the above shares and the best stock placed to benefit from China’s continuing growth ?

 

[tech/a]

Re: CHINA

Interesting on steel stocks.

I buy a lot of steel.
Last year my importers couldnt get steel for any money.
Billets were on the wharf,sold and along would come chinese buyers and offer 250/Tonne more and away it would gur Steel would be sold to China and there was nothing we could do.We paid $200/tonne more and bought more of it,just to be guarenteed stocks.
Of the 12 Mills offering steel to our importer only 2 made offers the rest was sold---total production---to China.

However today stell is being offered at reasonable discounts actually at around the price we paid pre china.

What Im seeing in the market is a definate slowdown even a glut.

 

[still_in_school]

Re: CHINA

Hi Barbarian Investor,

BHP, RIO and BSL, are all stocks i like, not only because there blue chips, but BHP and RIO offer quite good, option interest and liquidity..

BHP is one of the bluechip stocks that i trade alot of options on (but its one stock that i monitor daily, but also the technical analysis, in predicting future price movements, are much clearer in reading/understanding than most other bluechip companies)

RIO - is another great stock for technical analysis, though i dont trade it as much as BHP (though technically and fundamentally, brokers have upgraded its share price projection to $50.00) fundamentally and technically i do believe we will see $50.00 maybe very soon or before July at least...

BSL - Was technically very bullish when it was back at $6.00, still i hold BSL stock, though, as for shares, if you have a very bullish view about BSL (IMHO, i would suggest buying warrants at 50% or less of the share value, if you have a medium to long term view)

The other 2 stocks, have monitored them, but not fundamentally, how i look at it is.. stocks that appear to move on technical analysis, and have an excellent depth for option trading and margin lending... or are the strongest stocks of the sector, (where the money is flowing into) is where IMHO, is where you will find the most growth and appreciation, for a solid blue chip stock... and solid dividends that will come in, to help both pay off interest, but also allow many share holders to also re-invest there dividends to purchase more share holdings..

Cheers,
sis

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

thanks Techa and Still in School for the post, i agree BSL may have hit a peak..however...

I do like Rio though and BHP is still showing strength.

JBM and ZFX area bit more speculative, however i think China will still show great growth in 2005, i believe Vietnam is also becoming very competetive..

Australia has some great resource stocks, but who do youthink gives bestvalue at the moment?

 

[RichKid]

Re: CHINA

thanks Techa and Still in School for the post, i agree BSL may have hit a peak..however...

JBM and ZFX area bit more speculative, however i think China will still show great growth in 2005, i believe Vietnam is also becoming very competetive..

Australia has some great resource stocks, but who do youthink gives bestvalue at the moment?

BSL, I think it's got more to go, TA- broad trend is still up. More in BSL thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=311

ZFX seems fully valued, personally prefer smaller co's for more leverage. Might be more buying opportunities if it falls back later but then I thought that before the recent bull run! Might return to a lower trend line.

I bought Onesteel OST as I think it was written off by the market, still cheap imo, hasn't joined the longterm uptrend yet, ranging atm, needs to breach 2.90 convincingly, I'm expecting it to surprise this month and expect a rerating. Also like the magnetite operation longterm. Onesteel thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=814

There are also a few threads on the individual co's you mention, I've posted more there but it's just my view. I expect a broad correction sometime in the next few months so I'm being very watchful, just watching the trend.

Hope you can make some money out of the resource cycles.

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

GO BHP

Had a friend who bought in at around the mid $13.

Techa,

Aren't resource stocks notorious for'pre-selling' thier resources at a fixed price prior to acquiring it or 'hedging'?

And if so are the profits stated by the various companies payments for raw materials to come?

Trying to look at the overall picture, however, i stillfeelthier is strength in the market for some time to come..

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

well most of the resource stocks seem to be making great profit announcements, if they are pre-selling at current prices i'm sure this will continue.

I dont have a resource stock in my portfolio so am trying to decide the share that will give me the most bang for my buck .

Any ideas..should i stick with a 'blue chip' if in for the long haul..if this is your area Tech, any ideas ?

 

[tech/a]

Re: CHINA

Sorry just saw your post.

Some forward sell but most dont.Years ago I saw a post on where to find these figures but have lost it.

Im not following any particular sector.
There are stock in the BT list which are resource stocks and if they are a buy when I want a stock then Ill be trading them.

If you were a top down trader youd be on a few now Im sure.

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

Hi Tech,

alot of what i come across now is 'long term buy' or 'hold for the upside', making it hard to choose a resource stock of value..

was thinking of BHP and RIo then*bang* they went up..isn't it always the way when you think about a stock and dont make a move :swear: then you bend over to kick yourself knowing you wereon the right track

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA Juggernaut

And they keep on going where they stop nobody knows..

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

Just been having a look at the chart of MGX wish i got in 3 months ago when i looked at it

I heard a story the other day of some guy who bought up old tenaments near RIO and Newman etc and now has backing from Chinese companies to aquire and ship minerals and will make a bundle...

Reminds me of the story to start selling everything when taxi drivers start giving you stock tips

 

[Mofra]

Re: CHINA

TBI,

MGX is an interesting one especially considering at 18c they advised a 2005 profit of 5cps (no tax payable due to carried forward losses) and it was all but ignored by the market. Given the 70%+ increase in iron re prices recently negotiated, I wouldn't be thinking its too late for MGX just yet. The management fees they earn which are providing the majority of their income at the moment are indexed to the iron ore price so the recent profit upgrade for H2 should be sustainable, and the supply problems to the Geraldton port are improving. With a second mine to begin production next year there is still significant upside (disc, holding MGXO)

Cheers,

Mofra

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

BHP...

Is there still value here whatever the play ?

e-mail i recieved below

Metal mines and oil fields are depleting, and it takes years for new supplies to come online.

In concert, the demand for commodities from China is growing at a breakneck pace, and because China is driven by demographics, that demand will only increase as time goes on.

In light of this major supply / demand imbalance, prices can only go in one direction - up.

Due to a diverse portfolio of mining and petroleum interests, BHP Billiton is perfectly positioned to prosper from the inevitable ongoing boom.

In June 2003, 6.9% of BHP’s output went to China. By December 2004, that had risen to 10.2%.

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

BHP to 6 months

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: CHINA

Interesting reviewing some of everyone's earlier posts..mine included..

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: CHINA

Interesting reviewing some of everyone's earlier posts..mine included..

Defintely, especially techs comment of a steel glut was interesting to note, and Mofra's comment about MGX, they did well today by the way(sorry, couldn't help myself ).

 

[Yippyio]

Re: CHINA

Iron Ore Producers are the primary benefactors of demand created by the two emerging super powers, China & India. Australian resources stock best positioned are BHP, RIO, PMM, FMG & MGX.

Australian Steel producers are going to have a very tough time. All the raw materials that are currently being exported are for off shore Steel producers in Asia, our guys can not even come close to competing, BHP was aware of this some time ago hence spinning their steel making assets off into BSL. BSL are trying to be proactive about this by building infrastructure in China but will still be competing heavily.

The Iron Ore companies hold all the cards and Australian Iron ore is trading at 40% discount to Brazillian Iron Ore, this will hopefully be addressed at the next round of negotiations, which are going to set the price for all post April 2006 deliveries. UBS are spruiking a 10% increase whilst Mac Bank are spruiking a 17% increase.

 

[tech/a]

Re: CHINA

Re Steel.

Still the same,infact suppliers have been full of stock and trying to sell billets
at below normal pricing.
This glut I feel has been over production in expectation of China and increased domestic orders.
Both havent been forth coming.

 

[Yippyio]

Re: CHINA

Does anyone have any idea of the percentage of China's GDP that trade with America would account for.

 

[johnno261]

Re: CHINA

CHINA-

If I believe CHINA still has a lot of strength left in it and the year of the rooster will be a great year for China’s growth and the resource companies that supply that growth..

then where best would you allocate a percentage of your trading funds?

I’m looking at BSL, BHP, RIO

And thinking about ZFX, JBM

Any thoughts on the above shares and the best stock placed to benefit from China’s continuing growth ?

Look at the above stocks and ask yourself,"where am I going to get the greatest return from"? I believe MGX which is not on your list will give you a 100% return over the next 6-12 months. You won't get returns like that with any of the above. I do agree though that BHP is a def. buy at current levels.I bought some more today myself under $20.I expect atleast $6 p/s on BHP by the end of the Fin. year going on todays price P/S.