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I was about to post that graph too.
Wasn't sure where those other stats came from
Wasn't sure where those other stats came from
Chartist Growth Portfolio vs. Going alone
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Nicks quite rare in the business as he shows warts and all his performance.
He wont take a snap shot of the best times and say look at me like 99% of the rest.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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I'm just guessing here, but haven't the ASX small ords and the resource sector done quite poorly over the past four years?
Sometimes its as much about the universe you play in as it is the strategy you apply too....But you have got to be able to take the inevitable draw-downs.
Here is a 300 trade snap shot of the US Power Setups.
I see he's got a new exit and again I'm just guessing, but it must be specific take profit targets....makes for a smoother ride.
Sometimes its as much about the universe you play in as it is the strategy you apply too....But you have got to be able to take the inevitable draw-downs.
Here is a 300 trade snap shot of the US Power Setups.
I see he's got a new exit and again I'm just guessing, but it must be specific take profit targets....makes for a smoother ride.
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Why is it disrespectful to question the performance of someone who is in the business of giving trading signals?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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For comparison, here are the small ords and the resource indices...for the same period....oh and the Shanghai Composite on the bottom...for interest sake.
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The other signal providers I know show history back 10 years. His ASX returns suck and last years US Power set ups returned about the same as Vanguard ETF. So again its nothing spectacular, only difference between his US Power setup returns and ETF are with the ETF you didn't have to waste your time following signals but for pretty much even returns.
In short, he is praised around here like he is the next Buffett. Trading his set ups in a none leveraged account and straight shares is a waste of time, unless you have $500k plus.
Also what is a major turn off is.......Most signal providers I know that show history of 10 years plus don't sell you books or offer you books to buy once you sign up with them. The way I see it is, if you are a very successful trader your income will come from the trades. But as the saying goes.......The less time is spent in the markets the safer it is and by selling other things you minimize your risk.
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You are kidding, right? I don't actually have to spell it out, do I?
Just in case...
I was referring to LeatherCondor, in his very first post on this forum being one that called the information on another site 'crud'; yet not even bothering to get the name correct of the person he is referring to. I just found that rude or disrespectful.
And just in case I need to reiterate; don't count me as one of the defenders. I wouldn't have a clue whether this vendor's systems are any good or not (I do know first hand that they are nice people though). Re-read the footnote in my post; I merely wanted to raise the issue of investors and tracking error. I called LeatherCondor disrespectful for only the reasons above, not (as you incorrectly accuse) because they questioned a provider's trading signals. Question the trading signals as much as you like as far as I'm concerned.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Which ones are these?
I don't recall that at all, those that understand technical analysis, systematic trading and the markets, have a high degree of respect for Nick.
You keep mentioning ten years of history, how many are actually showing real results and not back tests?
What ETF exactly is that? Vanguard has a couple...
... also how is that relevant? You're not comparing apples to apples here at all. One is a pattern momentum strategy and one is...well we don't know yet what that is do we?The main reason many successful money managers write books and sell education is:
1.) they have the time and the knowledge to do so
2.) its a hedge for when your strategies are in draw-down
3.) it gets you well known in the industry, helping number two
4.) its part of a good business plan
5.) it support a lifestyle that is less stressful at times than swinging 100 lots into the Hang Seng for fun and profit, or working 80 hours a week out of NY hedge fund office.
Anyway, i think you'll find that those that have stuck it out with Nick are wise enough to know the facts, understand the difficulty in attaining yield in an age of unprecedented market manipulation and respect the quality research that Nick and his team do.
Enjoy your weekend.
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I had the opportunity to hang out with Nick and Trish at Tech's bday a few weeks ago.
We spoke for a few hours. I got a real buzz out of it. A great opportunity for a nobody like me
I found him to be a real wealth of knowledge.
I've also been a subscription to The Chartist for a few years now. I've found it highly beneficial.
Mainly ASX Power Setups for me.
The US strategies seem to work quite well too (I don't have them).
We spoke for a few hours. I got a real buzz out of it. A great opportunity for a nobody like me
I found him to be a real wealth of knowledge.
I've also been a subscription to The Chartist for a few years now. I've found it highly beneficial.
Mainly ASX Power Setups for me.
The US strategies seem to work quite well too (I don't have them).
I think he's a lot more transparent than most educators but I would be shocked if less than 85% of his income comes from membership fees as opposed to his own trading.
85%, where did you pull that number from?
If in drawdown surely 100%? Maybe peanuts if not.
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I have used the GP twice in my life - once before I had kids and family, and just recently. I also know that Nick does not like FA - it's all in the price action. (I can remember this from the first time I spoke to him. I asked about "FA" stuff, and was told in no uncertain terms.) What I am about to say probably applies to any service...
Someone earlier gave indications of the different kinds of stocks. In a rising market you will few a signals a day, it is up to you which you take. I generally took the conservative (green) stocks.
It is ALSO obviously a case of sell the losers, keep the winners. Sometimes, there is a average performer. While I do not know the logic (code) used in the GP, these may be culled also. If a stock is then sold for a 5% gain (for example) and no dividends at all, (over some time frame) it could be argued your money would be better in a bank. That said, there are more than a few that have 50+% gains as well. So the amount you invest and brokerage can also make a difference. (Not everyone uses IB!)
Probably the most important thing is to make sure that his style fits yours. I wanted to know why prices went up or down. Call that reports or research. The GP does not care for such things. If you like ratios (is the company undervalued?) it may not fit either. If you want to me told when to buy and sell, go for it.
(I started in the market with a stockbroker (many years ago) and three stocks, knowing nothing about FA or TA. That said, I knew more about FA before I even looked in stocks with a TA slant. So I have always been more interested in solid companies than the line told me to buy it. But each to their own. GL.
Someone earlier gave indications of the different kinds of stocks. In a rising market you will few a signals a day, it is up to you which you take. I generally took the conservative (green) stocks.
It is ALSO obviously a case of sell the losers, keep the winners. Sometimes, there is a average performer. While I do not know the logic (code) used in the GP, these may be culled also. If a stock is then sold for a 5% gain (for example) and no dividends at all, (over some time frame) it could be argued your money would be better in a bank. That said, there are more than a few that have 50+% gains as well. So the amount you invest and brokerage can also make a difference. (Not everyone uses IB!)
Probably the most important thing is to make sure that his style fits yours. I wanted to know why prices went up or down. Call that reports or research. The GP does not care for such things. If you like ratios (is the company undervalued?) it may not fit either. If you want to me told when to buy and sell, go for it.
(I started in the market with a stockbroker (many years ago) and three stocks, knowing nothing about FA or TA. That said, I knew more about FA before I even looked in stocks with a TA slant. So I have always been more interested in solid companies than the line told me to buy it. But each to their own. GL.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Not at all he, is praised for being open and honest, a rarity when he started up.
Not aware Buffett is big on TA.
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Re: CHARTIST Growth Portfolio V Going alone
Tech,
I cannot comment on the original poster, but if you were fully invested (based on your criteria), you cannot take every trade offered. So you then have to wait (?) for the next signal. It is possible then the get the losers rather than the winners. And if you are new to his system this is hard to take.
My own 2c now... not sure how GP goes during reporting season - why price seems to have gone up based on expected reports and in the case of some stocks, go back down when expectations are not met.
Tech,
I cannot comment on the original poster, but if you were fully invested (based on your criteria), you cannot take every trade offered. So you then have to wait (?) for the next signal. It is possible then the get the losers rather than the winners. And if you are new to his system this is hard to take.
My own 2c now... not sure how GP goes during reporting season - why price seems to have gone up based on expected reports and in the case of some stocks, go back down when expectations are not met.
The longer I actually trade and research real traders and not cigar smoking gurus the more I realise that the majority of people live in a fantasy land that Hollywood couldn't compete with if it tried. I know I've been to Hollywood too!
I would love to come back to this thread in 5 years and listen to the experts from Hollywood. I would encourage everyone who thinks they know better than Nick and other honest traders to have a listen to a few of this guys interviews https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/trend-following-michael-covel/id151217747?mt=2
The so called worlds best have posted much worse results than Nick and have made millions. I suggest the gurus here look up drawdown and contemplate long term results.
Rant finished
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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I don't know if this has been suggested before but why not combine one's own experience & skills with the service offered. One could filter the stock offers with their own criteria and have the final responsibility of selection and timing.
I haven't looked at the growth portfolio. I did look at the power setups with the free trial + bought one month of the US power setups to follow some trades. I don't agree with some of the methods though. The power setups arn't really the way I trade, mostly. Some are decent setups e.g. a consolidation after a breakout means the market is too strong for a reaction downwards so it trades sideways (demand is too great for the profit takers to cause an ordinary reaction). These will often appear on the power setups because they are decent setups, but mostly they need to be timed with the market as well. I would like to see historical results but they arn't available past a year.
Some of the setups I find questionable such as the bearish divergences. The success rates are far too low. The MACD is a poor indicator, especially when used in isolation since often what will happen is that there will be a slight pause before a resumption of the existing trend. This registers as bearish and while it might be in the very short term, it does not represent a very good EOD trading opportunity by itself.
Radge's setups also don't wait for reactions or to see what happens on the move up to a certain price point. He says to enter at x amount days before that could happen. The problem with that is there might be an up-thrust or the stock will move up slowly and pull back. In the first instance it would be a bad time to enter the trade. In the second instance if you use his hit and run exit you will be forced to close your position out when the loss is realised.
Win rates for US discretionary exit are only 35%. Win rates are not everything since it comes down to how much money you make when you do win vs the amount you lose when the trade does not go your way. It does not speak very highly to the probability of the patterns though. However, the patterns may not be the problem but rather the trade management of staying in the trade too long after signs of weakness occur. It's the lack of continual assessment of the technical position of each trade every day that's the issue. If you had the time and knowledge to do this yourself, it might be an idea to find your own trades.
There are other ways to trade, it's just they are a lot of work. Nick's service is good for people with a large amount of cash, who don't want to do anything but input the trades into the platform, and want to follow a system that has shown positive results in testing.
Some of the setups I find questionable such as the bearish divergences. The success rates are far too low. The MACD is a poor indicator, especially when used in isolation since often what will happen is that there will be a slight pause before a resumption of the existing trend. This registers as bearish and while it might be in the very short term, it does not represent a very good EOD trading opportunity by itself.
Radge's setups also don't wait for reactions or to see what happens on the move up to a certain price point. He says to enter at x amount days before that could happen. The problem with that is there might be an up-thrust or the stock will move up slowly and pull back. In the first instance it would be a bad time to enter the trade. In the second instance if you use his hit and run exit you will be forced to close your position out when the loss is realised.
Win rates for US discretionary exit are only 35%. Win rates are not everything since it comes down to how much money you make when you do win vs the amount you lose when the trade does not go your way. It does not speak very highly to the probability of the patterns though. However, the patterns may not be the problem but rather the trade management of staying in the trade too long after signs of weakness occur. It's the lack of continual assessment of the technical position of each trade every day that's the issue. If you had the time and knowledge to do this yourself, it might be an idea to find your own trades.
There are other ways to trade, it's just they are a lot of work. Nick's service is good for people with a large amount of cash, who don't want to do anything but input the trades into the platform, and want to follow a system that has shown positive results in testing.
Read Unholy Grails.
Think about how much time it will take you to learn about the markets, programming, psychology etc and the costs.
Forget about people who question why he would sell a book or a service. They just pay for the bait on a day fishing in the Noosa River!
Nick Radge is the Aussie Michael Covel.
I am posting the cummulative benchmark comparison from my IB account trading Chartist's US Power Setups (this is not paper-trading account!!). 
I would have posted a longer timeline but somehow IB account management did not let me create a "PortofilioAnalyst" for the entire timeline
I am happy with Nick, he is quite helpful and supportive (for novices like me). I am super-lazy so I have automated the entire thing (i.e. reading Nick's orders, position size and place in Market!). Now I don't even have to be near a computer, it does its thing
I would have posted a longer timeline but somehow IB account management did not let me create a "PortofilioAnalyst" for the entire timeline
I am happy with Nick, he is quite helpful and supportive (for novices like me). I am super-lazy so I have automated the entire thing (i.e. reading Nick's orders, position size and place in Market!). Now I don't even have to be near a computer, it does its thing
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Looking at the prev. chart it is all well and good to show a chart that slopes upwards. And we all know that it is the performance over the longer term, yada yada yada, but if you had joined in Dec 2013 you would be questioning why you had joined? (Also that chart was for US setups, whereas the OP asked about the GP. And in saying this there a are number of factors any would-be subscriber needs to consider....
1. size of portfolio
2. cost of brokerage
3. number of trades
4. which group(s) of stocks to follow
5. can I blindly follow someone else
6. is their method (or style) compatible with mine
None of this is for/against any particular service or provider. And only the OP can truly answer these questions. Food for thought.
1. size of portfolio
2. cost of brokerage
3. number of trades
4. which group(s) of stocks to follow
5. can I blindly follow someone else
6. is their method (or style) compatible with mine
None of this is for/against any particular service or provider. And only the OP can truly answer these questions. Food for thought.