Kyoto and a national apology to the indigenous population are electorally very popular, as they should be. Also, the last time a newly elected government wasn't returned after one term was some time before Menzies. So far back, I can't recall. No such thing as a sure bet, but Labor serving at least two terms is pretty damn close. All the Liberals except Abbott have been distancing themselves from the political stench of the far right Howard era, but their problems run much deeper than that.