Chance of recession if Labor wins???

[tronic72]

I think Labour will win but I don't think it will be a good thing. I'm tempted to vote labour but I just don't think Rudd is what he appears to be. I also think change for the sake of change is a foolish reason to vote labour. I grew up and studied in Victoria when the whole state was literally on strike. I remember it taking me 3 hours to get to Uni only to find no lectures due to a "snap strike".

I'm also quite concerned of the consequences of ALL power being in the hands of a single party. Like it or not the two parties need each other.

I'm also pretty pi$$ed of at both the major parties for their election spend fest which is only aimed at buying votes from the required demographics. I watched Rudds speech on SBS ( correct me if I'm wrong) and for all the talk about change and new thinking there wasn't a new idea to be seen. I think we've missed a massive opportunity to invest in capital works and infrastructure (a national water, irrigation and pipe system springs to mind) during this election and I think history will show what a waist it was as these sorts of surpluses don't come along often. Long after those cheap laptops are gone Australians, and the rest of the world will still need to eat.

Personally I think the current inflation and interest rates, coupled with the high amount of personal debt means we are sitting on a razors edge with a recession on both sides. Take away our luck with the current resource boom and luck with our high dollar and we'd be stuffed. (No income, expensive fuel and drought makes for a tough economic climate in country as big as ours)

For the record, I've voted democrats twice (early days), greens & liberals three times (I don't care if people know and I think it makes for a better discussion to know I'm not a liberal stooge.)

I'd be interested to know what other members think the chance of recession is, if the labour party wins.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

m8 I'm not an economist by any stretch.
But my guess is
a) about the same chance as if Coalition were in
b) IF USA went into recession (which allegedly affects China's market, which affects Aus market etcetc) , then hard for us not to follow there there , yes? - in either case (Lab or Lib) ?

Didn't I just read that optimism is running high by all recent polls on such matters. ? (and they have surely factored in the near certainty of a Labor win surely)

 

[kivvygosh]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I'm tempted to vote labour

On what basis? Your post is all fear, uncertainty and doubt about Rudd. I don't see any 'temptation' in it.

You're right, it has been a big waist.

I don't see the chances of a recession as at all significant. There is a high level of personal debt but we are experiencing very high growth. There may be an inflationary breakout - but that's not a recession.

If there was a recession I don't see how a national pipe system would help. The problem in a recession isn't that there is no food to eat, it's that there aren't enough jobs in the cities.

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

It matters not who wins, neither would be more likely to cause a recession.

In this Globalised world a World recession would absolutely hammer us though, our entire economy is virtually based around these Holes in the ground ..... The current Government seems to have few plans past this Mining economy, we should be recession proofing now in times of plenty, proactive rather than reactive ......

Vote accordingly

 

[tronic72]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Numbercruncher "we should be recession proofing now in times of plenty"

My point exactly. With a country governed by one party who's going to stop the spending? Both Personal & Government spending is out of control. The waist both parties are proposing is disgusting.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[nioka]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I'd be interested to know what other members think the chance of recession is, if the labour party wins.

I think there is slightly less chance of a recession with Rudd than with Howard. He has just demonstrated that he won't spend just to stay in power or in his case to get into power. He will also take us a little way from the USA economy and a little towards the Asian economy. Asia will boom for some time yet but the USA is saddled with the debt from the invasion of Iraq and will be for a long time. I think he is showing intestinal fortitude and I'm sure he can control the unions. If he can do for the country what he has done with his own life then we should be happy.

 

[Blank1979]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I'm going to channel Rudd logic for my response:

"I'm committed to putting downward pressure on inflation" - even though I can't possibly prevent petrol, food, or energy prices from rising (ssshhhh don't tell the Australian public they think I'm a wizard)

"I'm not going to commit to an unemployment target".

Lots of jobs at near full employment + people spending their hard earned wages = inflation rising. Howard is a maniac.

Ergo: less employment + less spending = lower inflation. I'm a genius!

Prediction in six months:
Ring Ring, Ring Ring,
'Hello?'
'Um, John, this is Kev, what would you do in this situation, I'm a little stuck here ???
'Oh Kev, now you understand that copying isn't the same as working it all out for yourself!'
'Yeah but I had all the glib media bites and the witty sarcastic responses'
'Agreed. But why don't you do what you always do, just blame someone else. Look Kev, I'm a little busy, Deal or No Deal is coming on, so if you don't mind.....'

Back to reality:
yes, recession is coming. Labor will be at fault. Rudd can't do anything near what he would have 'working families' believe - they'll be a lot of upset labor voters in about a year i reckon.

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

If he can do for the country what he has done with his own life then we should be happy.

Precisely, Rudd has gone from battle street to the top of his game, to me another great Aussie success story, with such personal success he will be sure to deliver on Nationwide LONGTERM success.

Howard just had a free ride, Free education, Free Dental, Free Medical etc and in his invinite wisdom figured free isnt good enough anymore so you all shall pay! Hell he even inherited an economy that Labor put the hard (vote losing) yards in and now kicks back taking credit for the WORLD wide boom that relys on our resources. pffft freeloader.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Back to reality:
yes, recession is coming. Labor will be at fault. Rudd can't do anything near what he would have 'working families' believe - they'll be a lot of upset labor voters in about a year i reckon.

If you hadn't actually announced that you were going back reality, I'd have thought you were still off with the fairies!

Care to provide some facts about exactly how a Rudd led govt will magically take us into a recession whilst the rest of the world carries on growing?

 

[nioka]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I'm going to channel Rudd logic for my response:

"I'm committed to putting downward pressure on inflation" - even though I can't possibly prevent petrol, food, or energy prices from rising (ssshhhh don't tell the Australian public they think I'm a wizard)

"I'm not going to commit to an unemployment target".

Lots of jobs at near full employment + people spending their hard earned wages = inflation rising. Howard is a maniac.

Ergo: less employment + less spending = lower inflation. I'm a genius!

Prediction in six months:
Ring Ring, Ring Ring,
'Hello?'
'Um, John, this is Kev, what would you do in this situation, I'm a little stuck here ???
'Oh Kev, now you understand that copying isn't the same as working it all out for yourself!'
'Yeah but I had all the glib media bites and the witty sarcastic responses'
'Agreed. But why don't you do what you always do, just blame someone else. Look Kev, I'm a little busy, Deal or No Deal is coming on, so if you don't mind.....'

If you want to follow up such a ridiculous statement with fact can you tell me who gave him the advice as to how he could develop his own life. Remember he didn't have a dad on hand to pave the way. Would Jamie Packer have made it without Kerry. Would George Bush have got there without his dear old daddy.

 

[Happy]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

how a Rudd led govt will magically take us into a recession whilst the rest of the world carries on growing?

I am not sure if he will, but process in itself is quite easy.

Spend too much money, take too bigger credit to be able to serve it and also pay it back, and we have recipe for recession.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I remember it taking me 3 hours to get to Uni only to find no lectures due to a "snap strike".

Gee, you're lucky you even had classes.

In the 4-5 years I've been at uni, my class and lecture times have been cut by more than 50% and my fees have gone up between 350-400%.

But don't worry, a strike at uni would definitely be the WORST thing that could happen to your education.

This thread is just a piece of moronic tripe.

 

[SevenFX]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

I am not sure if he will, but process in itself is quite easy.

Spend too much money, take too bigger credit to be able to serve it and also pay it back, and we have recipe for recession.

Happy.

I'm think the Professor would understand the mechanics behind the R word, and guessing he was more interested (like most) in seeing the OP starting a good thread backed by content and/or reasoning.

Cheers
SevenFX

 

[sam76]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Prediction in six months:
Ring Ring, Ring Ring,
'Hello?'
'Um, John, this is Kev, what would you do in this situation, I'm a little stuck here ???
'Oh Kev, now you understand that copying isn't the same as working it all out for yourself!'
'Yeah but I had all the glib media bites and the witty sarcastic responses'
'Agreed. But why don't you do what you always do, just blame someone else. Look Kev, I'm a little busy, Deal or No Deal is coming on, so if you don't mind.....'
.

That's gold, Jerry... Gold!

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

lol
gotta feeling Johnny is more likely to finish up with ...
"sorry gotta go -
I've got three other ex ministers on "call waiting" wondering what to do now that they're in opposition"

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Or Maybe the incoming call from Kev will be ...

"Hey Johnny, there's a bill just come in here for $111 million for advertising for the last 12 months - workchoice, education - yep, all your ramping for the election .... yep
can you please pick up the tab on this one?"

http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story/0,22884,21775160-462,00.html?from=public_rss

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/02/2080029.htm

Govt breaching ad guidelines: Labor
Posted Fri Nov 2, 2007 1:13pm AEDT
Updated Fri Nov 2, 2007 4:08pm AEDT

Federal Labor has accused the Coalition of breaching the Caretaker Conventions by running taxpayer-funded television advertising in regional Queensland.

Labor says it has written to the Special Minister of State, Gary Nairn, demanding he explain why the Opposition was not consulted about the ads.

Labor's Penny Wong says the advertising about Australian Technical Colleges ran on two television channels early this week.

"This is clearly under-the-radar government advertising and it is against the rules which apply during an election period," she said.

"The Howard Government must explain why these advertisements were allowed to go to air during an election campaign."... etc

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chance of recession is the same as liberals.

no difference...when China and India stop growing it
will be recession time.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Chance of recession is the same as liberals.

no difference...when China and India stop growing it
will be recession time.

You forgot to spell "recession" with a capital "R".




Cheers,

AJ

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

In my opinion the chance of recession is 100% no matter who wins the next election.

The question is when, not if, we have a recession. They are an inevitable part of the economic cycle. We've had a massive boom recently and a recession is overdue.

The high debt etc has set us up pretty badly. Likewise we can't keep underinvesting in infrastructure forever. Both of those amount to taking benefits now and paying more for them later.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Chance of recession if Labour wins???

Spend too much money, take too bigger credit to be able to serve it and also pay it back, and we have recipe for recession.

Precisely what the Liberals have done and Labor is promising. The same outcome is also implied, albeit in a somewhat hidden manner, by Greens policies.