Hi skc,
Haven't posted in these parts in a long time but took an interest at your post given I've been invested in CGF previously and we use their products in our financial planning office. Annuities can be structured in a few different ways but basically you put $x amount in, and you can choose the period of time to receive payments and whether there is any residual at the end of that time. So you might have a 5 year annuity starting with $100,000 and finishing with $0 receiving payments monthly with no indexation of payments. I just quickly ran a quote based on this setup and the payment was $1,795 a month with an earnings rate of approximately 3.00%.
This earnings rate is pretty typical of annuities at the moment and so you can see they don't have to invest the money very aggressively to earn the amount required to pay the annuity and still make a nice margin on the annuity for themselves. And because everything is fixed when the annuity is put in place they can easily manage their risk levels etc based on performance of their investments.
As you say if there is a shortfall they would need to make up said shortfall themselves however given they run the funds management section of the business as well as making a decent margin on the annuities historically I don't think they'd struggle too much to meet the annuity payments in these down markets.
My original thesis for investing in CGF was the aging population which has less tolerance for risk following the GFC and the benefits of having a funds management arm that will likely steadily increase as people are required to receive 9.5% SGC each year anyway. I sold my holding after making a decent gain thinking they were starting to get a little overvalued and that was when they were around $6.50 just a year or so ago and it seems I was wrong. I still think my investment thesis stands but whether they are value or not at the current price is another question.
Astrologers @mcgrath111 and @gregglesCGF down to 9.50 at last close, can't see any recent news as to what might explain the downtrend? Is it just mimicking the ASX 200?
7 something now - back to where i wanted to buy it 4 or 5 years ago, prob should be buying this.
It is still just below $8. Was $7.7 the lowest in the morning.
Generally market is down so that could have added to CGF.
Would you now buy it at $7.9?
Agreed, yet CGF is far stronger on fundamentals.Thinking about it - IOOF has gone up steadily since that one bad day. 4.28 to 5.38 over about 7 weeks.
Agreed, yet CGF is far stronger on fundamentals.
Think you may get your order filled, some big orders went through at closing.
Partners in crime @tinhat and @So_Cynical .
I did not want to wait too long and bought a small parcel of CGF just now.
This share could easily drop into sub $7
I want to repeat that I bought a small holding today. I aim to hold shares for the medium term and I add to and cull holdings as needed. In the past few days I have sold out of IRI and CGC, both at profit.
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All cool but I would absolutely hate to be even remotely seen as a part of any sort of sentiment. I'm just an anonymous fool in a hat.
Buying a falling knife right now is fraught with risk.
Each to their own. As a disclaimer, I run three portfolios, one for my mum which is in pension mode, so most of the shares I manage are for a dividend. Also, I invest according to the thesis that the return from owning shares in the bank is superior to holding deposits with the bank, but that carries risk. Long story short, I am probably happier to carry more risk than others. Not because I am managing more money than most (far from it) but because of this God-damned hat.
Mate @tinhat
If I am reading between lines, rest assured my decision to buy a small parcel today was not driven by your decision. It was a pun to say partners in crime.
Ironically I put another parcel at the lowest price it closed today thinking it will not achieve but that was also bought and shares would most likely to fall more tomorrow. Technically CGF though was recommended by few brokers, would get a southface warning from today's fall (and tomorrow). Brokers can only predict as they are told and as they want to manipulate the market.
When I reviewed some of the substantial holder purchases by CGF was sour. We may ask the question these companies are also driven by so-called professionals who also have lots of tools, research and how come they make mistakes? That is the game unfortunately and otherwise, everyone would have made money.
I would be watching on CGF to re-enter into more opportunities taking my emotion out of it.
On the hindsight, I was to enter into at $8+ figure because one so-called financial expert broker advised me to BUY but I stayed away until today. I always considered CGF has fundamentals right and I will never able to predict the bottom most price. It is within ASX 200 so surely the financial institutions will buy and keep it alive if not immediately but in this financial year for sure.
So enjoy the market tomorrow once again, we all do our own risks and decisions.
Hello @tinhatHi @Miner
I have been reading your posts here for some time. I am just mindful about people reading the last few posts about this stock and thinking that this is a buy in the current sentiment not understanding the downside risk. As I said above all cool.
My aim is to hold stocks for the long term but I find that hard to do. Essentially annuities are all about charging a premium to the depositor for taking on the risk of a fixed rate of return. Assuming that the business is being managed well, that is the side of the ledger I want to be on understanding that the ride will be bumpy.
https://www.challenger.com.au/personal/products/lifetime-annuities said:If you would like to cancel your annuity, in most cases you will receive a return of your investment but you may receive back less than you invested originally and less than you would have received had you held the annuity for its agreed term.
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