CEY - Centennial Coal
- Thread starter Dutchy3
- Start date
-
- Tags
- centennial coal cey
- Joined
- 2 February 2006
- Posts
- 14,009
- Reactions
- 2,892
Felix Resources are due to up production from their Ashton underground mine (60% owned) sometime in 2010, from the present production level around 3mtpa to 6.5mtpa. So it would seem that FLX are the main beneficiary's from this as their mine is on the same rail line into the Newcastle Port and is also in the same place at Singleton in the Hunter.
Felix also have a 15.4% interest in the new terminal at Newcastle, on Kooragang Island, and are well placed to negotiate shipping from there.
Centennial have an 8.79% interest in NCIG.
Even if the plan is to hold this lng term, I still feel I should have sold at $3.0 and above. 
And last Friday was an example of the days when you feel you bought the wrong company. FLX and MCC up while CEY was down. Any chartists working on CEY? Any reason for the drop?
And last Friday was an example of the days when you feel you bought the wrong company. FLX and MCC up while CEY was down. Any chartists working on CEY? Any reason for the drop?
- Joined
- 20 November 2005
- Posts
- 787
- Reactions
- 92
From last Monday's reviews...
Bottom Line
15/6:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a
Video Analysis
Watch Video Analysis
Technical Discussion
15/6:
LAYMANS:
It has been a while since we had a look at CEY. In fact back at the beginning of March where we were looking for one last probe lower although we highlighted that the multi year support at $1.50 would be a key level. With the help of the global equity market turnaround this area of support did indeed hold firm. Price has had a strong move higher, in fact rising 113% in those three months or so, which even though seems impressive needs to be kept in perspective as the stock did lose over 76% in value from those 26thJune highs. So where to from now? We can only see any move higher as a correction to the main trend which has been clearly down, but having said that there is nothing wrong with jumping on a short term trend, irrespective of the longer term outlook. Friday was a poor day; a probe higher met with strong selling and a close near the day’s lows; today followed on in a similar vein with another push higher, only to again close on the lows of the day. There are certainly sellers willing to offload at these levels which looks likeky to weigh on price and keep weakness at the forefront, possibly to around the $2.50 area in the short term. We should see renewed strength come in then and just exceed Fridays highs at $3.22, before another retracement commences.
TECHNICAL:
From an Elliott wave perspective we have some nice clear patterns to work with. We have an obvious 5-wave impulse higher terminating at the wave-(1) or -A high, followed by the typical 3-wave counter move to wave-(2) or -B. Although this is a little deeper than we would like it's still the headline pattern. From here price certainly starts to impulse higher very strongly where it appears after seeing waves-1, -2 and -3 subdivided into a new impulse pattern. Wave-3 looks to have completed. We can be confident that the move north terminated on Friday as we have our old favourite bearish divergence showing again; prices making a higher high while our indicator makes a secondary high. That combined with weak closes is a very strong indication that we will now see a pause at the very least, although more likely a pull back to the retracement zone. From a volume perspective (not shown) we need this to follow on from today and decline in line with prices which would be a very bullish proposition for the medium term outlook.
Trading Strategy
15/6:
Nothing goes up in a straight line and any pause here could set up a great short term trade for a swing trader. indeed there could be a few short term opportunities here, firstly trading the smaller degree wave-5 but more importantly the larger degree wave-(5) which is the preferred option. I certainly favour the more bullish count but we’ll see how prices react in the next week or two and re-assess then. If we are to see an A-B-C correction, which is highly probable, don't forget to read our new article, "Trading A-B-C Patterns" in the Resource Library.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Bottom Line
15/6:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a
Video Analysis
Watch Video Analysis
Technical Discussion
15/6:
LAYMANS:
It has been a while since we had a look at CEY. In fact back at the beginning of March where we were looking for one last probe lower although we highlighted that the multi year support at $1.50 would be a key level. With the help of the global equity market turnaround this area of support did indeed hold firm. Price has had a strong move higher, in fact rising 113% in those three months or so, which even though seems impressive needs to be kept in perspective as the stock did lose over 76% in value from those 26thJune highs. So where to from now? We can only see any move higher as a correction to the main trend which has been clearly down, but having said that there is nothing wrong with jumping on a short term trend, irrespective of the longer term outlook. Friday was a poor day; a probe higher met with strong selling and a close near the day’s lows; today followed on in a similar vein with another push higher, only to again close on the lows of the day. There are certainly sellers willing to offload at these levels which looks likeky to weigh on price and keep weakness at the forefront, possibly to around the $2.50 area in the short term. We should see renewed strength come in then and just exceed Fridays highs at $3.22, before another retracement commences.
TECHNICAL:
From an Elliott wave perspective we have some nice clear patterns to work with. We have an obvious 5-wave impulse higher terminating at the wave-(1) or -A high, followed by the typical 3-wave counter move to wave-(2) or -B. Although this is a little deeper than we would like it's still the headline pattern. From here price certainly starts to impulse higher very strongly where it appears after seeing waves-1, -2 and -3 subdivided into a new impulse pattern. Wave-3 looks to have completed. We can be confident that the move north terminated on Friday as we have our old favourite bearish divergence showing again; prices making a higher high while our indicator makes a secondary high. That combined with weak closes is a very strong indication that we will now see a pause at the very least, although more likely a pull back to the retracement zone. From a volume perspective (not shown) we need this to follow on from today and decline in line with prices which would be a very bullish proposition for the medium term outlook.
Trading Strategy
15/6:
Nothing goes up in a straight line and any pause here could set up a great short term trade for a swing trader. indeed there could be a few short term opportunities here, firstly trading the smaller degree wave-5 but more importantly the larger degree wave-(5) which is the preferred option. I certainly favour the more bullish count but we’ll see how prices react in the next week or two and re-assess then. If we are to see an A-B-C correction, which is highly probable, don't forget to read our new article, "Trading A-B-C Patterns" in the Resource Library.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Thanks Nick. Your charts and comments is somewhat enlightening.
I've held onto CEY since January this year and buying everytime it's down. Almost 6 months now. I may as well enjoy the ride and see where this leads me.
Who knows, maybe my accumulation would lead me to become a company director and join CEY's board. Good for my resume, then be invited to join BHP or RIO's board. Or even TLS. And be given a $2M golden handshake. Or be able to establish Sidious and Pink (like Babcock and Brown) and suck people's hard earned money.
Back to work. It's Monday!
I've held onto CEY since January this year and buying everytime it's down. Almost 6 months now. I may as well enjoy the ride and see where this leads me.
Who knows, maybe my accumulation would lead me to become a company director and join CEY's board. Good for my resume, then be invited to join BHP or RIO's board. Or even TLS. And be given a $2M golden handshake. Or be able to establish Sidious and Pink (like Babcock and Brown) and suck people's hard earned money.
Back to work. It's Monday!
Another disappointing day for CEY today. I was expecting it to be up for today due to the price of coal above $70. Was it just market sentiment or was it something else.
I don't know whether to dollar average it at this price since in my mind the SP can fall down much more like March-April prices.
Any thoughts out there? Maybe something that we mere mortals don't know
I don't know whether to dollar average it at this price since in my mind the SP can fall down much more like March-April prices.
Any thoughts out there? Maybe something that we mere mortals don't know
Another disappointing day for CEY today. I was expecting it to be up for today due to the price of coal above $70. Was it just market sentiment or was it something else.
I don't know whether to dollar average it at this price since in my mind the SP can fall down much more like March-April prices.
Any thoughts out there? Maybe something that we mere mortals don't know
Just a suggestion but if I thought there was a fair chance of the SP falling to March-April prices I'd wait until it established an uptrend before buying more.
Unless, of course, I had a great track record of bottom-picking.
The number of time I hear people giving that comments....... I think it's anchoring effect, people don't take notice when if it was the opposite, but when shares dive after buying, it registers and people complain.
CEY has come down quite abit from the 3.15 to 2.36 now, right now I think its in the support zone so if it does fall to 2.20 it will be an attractive buy, certainly the fact the got their recent new mine permits with generate synergies with their existing coal mines will paint a brighter future.
By the way, does anyone know a good site for tracking spot thermal coal prices? thx
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
- Joined
- 20 October 2005
- Posts
- 2,397
- Reactions
- 2
CEY's been getting good runs lately. Are we seeing $4.00 anytime soon?
Seems like it's one of the few coal miners left to run hard. MCC, FLX, GCL all have come out of their all time lows and gaining strength. I wonder why CEY takes a long time. Patience is going to be tested on this one.
Seems like it's one of the few coal miners left to run hard. MCC, FLX, GCL all have come out of their all time lows and gaining strength. I wonder why CEY takes a long time. Patience is going to be tested on this one.
One thing that does concern me is the amount of share dilution that has took place over the last 10 years. A tenfold increase.
I don't know how much capital raising they have done in the past but 10x increase seems to me a bit too excessive......
Anyone have a view on this?
I do not believe it would hit 4.00 dollars anytime because that would put CEY at an unrealistic P/E ratio, I think thermal coal market is going to stabilize this financial year but they outcome for CEY would depend on the export market
I don't know how much capital raising they have done in the past but 10x increase seems to me a bit too excessive......
Anyone have a view on this?
I do not believe it would hit 4.00 dollars anytime because that would put CEY at an unrealistic P/E ratio, I think thermal coal market is going to stabilize this financial year but they outcome for CEY would depend on the export market
Centennial Coal to begin exporting from Mandalong mine in 2010
21 August 2009 Print this article Comments Share this article
CENTENNIAL Coal has announced that is plans to commence exporting coal from its Mandalong mine in early-2010.
Managing director Bob Cameron says Mandalong had a record year, 4.9 million tonnes, and claims it will do better again this year.
The mining company will export through the Port of Newcastle after the completion of a new haul road in March.
Centennial Coal expects to be exporting coal from Mandalong from April.
21 August 2009 Print this article Comments Share this article
CENTENNIAL Coal has announced that is plans to commence exporting coal from its Mandalong mine in early-2010.
Managing director Bob Cameron says Mandalong had a record year, 4.9 million tonnes, and claims it will do better again this year.
The mining company will export through the Port of Newcastle after the completion of a new haul road in March.
Centennial Coal expects to be exporting coal from Mandalong from April.
- Joined
- 2 February 2006
- Posts
- 14,009
- Reactions
- 2,892
Centennial still have a lot going for them in the future but the share price has come up a long way and I've decided to dispose of my holding on China rumours of cutbacks of imports. Hope it carries on up for everyone.
Centennial Coal Company Limited Updates On Litigation
Centennial Coal Company Limited announced that the NSW Court of Appeal has upheld a decision of the Supreme Court handed down in August 2009. That earlier decision determined that certain undertakings in the Anvil Hill Asset Sale Deed (Asset Sale Deed) with respect to Centennial Coal Company Limited’s interests in Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) will remain on foot for the time being. The decision means that Centennial Coal Company Limited is required to make port capacity at NCIG available in the future for Xstrata’s Mangoola Project (formerly Anvil Hill), a greenfield development.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=CEY.AX×tamp=20091016064700
CEY down 6c or 1.80% to $3.27 on Friday
Centennial Coal Company Limited announced that the NSW Court of Appeal has upheld a decision of the Supreme Court handed down in August 2009. That earlier decision determined that certain undertakings in the Anvil Hill Asset Sale Deed (Asset Sale Deed) with respect to Centennial Coal Company Limited’s interests in Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) will remain on foot for the time being. The decision means that Centennial Coal Company Limited is required to make port capacity at NCIG available in the future for Xstrata’s Mangoola Project (formerly Anvil Hill), a greenfield development.
Link: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=CEY.AX×tamp=20091016064700
CEY down 6c or 1.80% to $3.27 on Friday
Logique
Investor
- Joined
- 18 April 2007
- Posts
- 4,290
- Reactions
- 768
Proceeding very nicely thanks very much.
Wondering if this represents a breakout from the range of recent months. On the weekly data in the chart - a fair likelihood going by the tech indicators. Been trying to find out if there was anything else behind the surge of recent days.
Wondering if this represents a breakout from the range of recent months. On the weekly data in the chart - a fair likelihood going by the tech indicators. Been trying to find out if there was anything else behind the surge of recent days.
Attachments
I agree CEY certainly has had a good run up from a breakout at 3.60, I sold on 12/1 as had reached my target of 4.20, which was selected as it was just below the Oct 08 high.
As from here, I will keep watch as the area of 4.50 onwards there is a alot of choppy price action from the highs of 08
As from here, I will keep watch as the area of 4.50 onwards there is a alot of choppy price action from the highs of 08
Attachments
CEY has been rising steadily after the peabody bid for MCC It is seeen by many as another potential takeover target along with WHC .However even without the takeover premium CEY would seem to have a good future.The( NCIG is now operating Cey a partner) The company is expanding production to increase their overseas sales and take advantage of the strong demand in china in particular. The contracts with NSW government for coal to fire the electicity generators are due to come up for renegotiation over the next few years starting i believe this year While any company can bid at the moment CEY owns the infrastructure to the generators and the price obtained should rise to take into account the increase in coal prices since the original contract
DYO please do not rely on me
DYO please do not rely on me
