CEY - Centennial Coal

dj_420 · 24 May 2008

michael_selway said:
Hm, not many on this??? I'm on it, so is Noirua i think!!!

Anyway the thing is that the perception that "not many are on it", is actually good as thsi means that once everyone gets on it, prices will go even higher?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 10.6 16.5 48.2 64.7
DPS 8.0 10.0 20.0 29.1

Thanks

MS

Hey Michael, maybe it is all institutions on board this one instead of forum members!!!

Anyways good run today, I think it was only beginning of significant re-rating.

white_goodman · 4 June 2008

i think i missed the boat on this one...

im a beginner investor but didnt the change in regards to royalties and the 100tonne threshold mean bad news for coal companies ?

michael_selway · 4 June 2008

white_goodman said:
i think i missed the boat on this one...

im a beginner investor but didnt the change in regards to royalties and the 100tonne threshold mean bad news for coal companies ?

Hi is there any links?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 10.6 16.0 54.0 72.2
DPS 8.0 10.0 20.0 29.1

thx

MS

dj_420 · 17 June 2008

CEY moving from strength to strength, contracts unwinding and I think a thinly veiled hint at Awaba resource estimate going to be larger than expected.

Does anyone know when this is due?

dj_420 · 18 June 2008

Not too much talk on this thread but CEY slowly getting up there, bit oversold today IMO.

Hey Michael do you have an updated earnings per share figures? Cheers.

michael_selway · 19 June 2008

dj_420 said:
Not too much talk on this thread but CEY slowly getting up there, bit oversold today IMO.

Hey Michael do you have an updated earnings per share figures? Cheers.

Hi dj

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 6.5 16.5 57.9 73.7
DPS 4.9 10.0 20.0 28.4

thx

MS

dj_420 · 19 June 2008

michael_selway said:
Hi dj

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 6.5 16.5 57.9 73.7
DPS 4.9 10.0 20.0 28.4

thx

MS

I think CEY is really starting to look good Michael, those earnings really start to increase next year. This would be due to the additional tonnage available to sell on exports.

I am eagerly awaiting Awaba resource estimate, does anyone have any inkling on what the size will be?

dj_420 · 19 June 2008

Looking at the chart we can begin to see the overall strength that CEY has shown. Although market may have fluctuated and been very volatile CEY has been in a nice trending channel for the past three months.

CEY has historically found some resistance at 5.00 mark, tightening of trading range and then broke through on volume spike. I expected 6.00 to have a bit more resistance but moved very quickly through the 6.00 range in last few days. The sp did break above that trading channel so it may either form a new trading channel above old channel or drop back into the channel.

I would see short term downside risk at 5.50 and 5.00 for support levels. Volume has been increasing steadily and has been a sustained rise in volume, rather than large volume spikes.

MACD crossed around a week ago, stochastics are saying its overbought but in the past it has continued trends running at the top of range. From here I would like 6.00 mark to build support and new base but if it fails that point it may settle back down into the old trading range although maintain the uptrend.

agro · 23 June 2008

although i haven't been contributing as much as i have on the CEY thread as i have on the FMG

this would have to be up there on my top stock list..

CEY goes ex-div on the 25th (wed), 4 cents fully franked..

this is part of their capital they gave to holders $1.88 earlier this year

cheers

michael_selway · 23 June 2008

agro said:
although i haven't been contributing as much as i have on the CEY thread as i have on the FMG

this would have to be up there on my top stock list..

CEY goes ex-div on the 25th (wed), 4 cents fully franked..

this is part of their capital they gave to holders $1.88 earlier this year

cheers

Hi what others are in your "top list" besides FMG & CEY

thx

MS

---------------------------------------------

agro · 24 June 2008

michael_selway said:
Hi what others are in your "top list" besides FMG & CEY

thx

MS

---------------------------------------------

lol - wouldn't you like to know

does anyone think that CEY will get a rub on effect due to the MCC takeover and talbot stepping down?

edit - i think going by the IAP, CEY +6% might suggest that people are switching boats here

dj_420 · 24 June 2008

agro said:
lol - wouldn't you like to know

does anyone think that CEY will get a rub on effect due to the MCC takeover and talbot stepping down?

edit - i think going by the IAP, CEY +6% might suggest that people are switching boats here

A number of factors here I think Agro:

1 - Unwinding contracts, more coal available for export market
2 - Better ROM on a number of deposits
3 - Increase in thermal coal prices

Also I might add the coal deposit on Wallarah and surrounding areas is around 1,030 million tonnes of high quality thermal coal, this is in dispute and will be ruled apon by State govt. Very contentious issue but if approved will add at least 5 million tonnes per annum onto CEY output. I do not know the exact amount on CEY tenements but this deposits fall onto existing tenements owned by CEY.

By the way, has anyone heard anything on the Wallarah mine lately? Just curious as I am wondering when this might be decided apon. But a favourable result would result in a massive boost in future earnings for CEY.

dj_420 · 24 June 2008

After a bit more digging around there could be significant extensions of the Myunah, Mannering and Mandalong resources into the Wyong LGA.

The Wallarah 2 deposit is more contentious with proposed mining under a large area of Wyong and North Wyong. This is the area been proposed by the WACJV, Wallarah Coal Joint Venture. I dont think CEY is involved in this particular area at all.

I actually think CEY has a good chance to getting a continuation of mining in these areas that have extensions into the Wyong LGA. I dont know if the Wallarah 2 mine will get off the ground as it has identified large amounts of the resource under residential.

The CEY deposit extensions however are primarily rural areas.

Atma · 24 June 2008

this stock is the best coal stock in the sector for the following reasons:

-port allocation- CEY owns part of the Port kembla port and has unfettered access to this demurrage free port. Total capacity is approx 18mT of which CEY will export through it 5mT(equity share 3-4mT)

It also has 8% of the NCIG port which will be a demurrage free port as well

Newcastle (PWCS) port is also scheduled to expand to 140mpta and beyond for all producers in the region.

Port kembla coal terminal is also going to increase its capacity. So there is the potential for production upgrades long term.

-Mines - CEY has a lot of stakes in two regions - Western(Lithgow) Region and Newcastle province.

-Awaba East deposit - this is a massive semi soft coking(!) and thermal coal deposit. CEY has a port allocation of 5mT in the NCIG from 2012. Semi soft coking sells for about $250/t.

-Airly underground (100%) brownfields start-up- will add to Lithgow operations 1.5mpta

-Angus place East(50%)- massive exploration upside here too.

-Neubeck's open cut project (100%)- another incremental addon

-Wolgan's road deposit - another incremental

-Springvale increase in exports

-Mandalong expansions , large 5mpta producer.

total by 2015, it will have over 15mpta exports. @ $150/t this is worth over $2bn in revenues.

dj_420 · 28 June 2008

We also saw an increase in coal prices yesterday, CEY well positioned to take advantage of these increases, here is the Comsec market bulletin on this:

Point of view: Coal prices hit record highs
Coal has been the best performing commodity this year, even outpacing oil gains.
The Newcastle Global thermal coal price has hit a fresh
record high reaching USD 172 a tonne – a 100% increase in
just six months. This thermal coal price indicator highlights the
continued strength of global energy demand.
But what does all this mean?
The price for some minerals may be falling but the demand for
coal continues to soar. The spot coal market makes up around
10% of the world trade and a representation of that market - the
Newcastle Global thermal coal index has doubled in price since
the start of the year hitting a fresh record high of USD 172.00 a
tonne.
The rally in the oil price has grabbed most of the spotlight in
recent times, with continued talk of oil speculators and tight
supplies. However the rise in spot coal prices highlights the
fundamental strength in demand for energy and this will continue
to be a significant cost consideration for major power users such
as manufacturers.
Soaring energy and steel needs of industrialising Asian
economies, in particular China, has added to the demand for
coal. The gas explosion in Western Australia has resulted in a
large energy shortfall. Western Australia gas producers are
importing diesel to continue operation but the explosion has seen
more downtime and equipment maintenance. This has resulted in
the reopening of three coal fired power stations that are expected
to start operations from end of July.
The high spot price for coal shows the fundamental underlying
demand for energy. Countries with booming coal demand like
China and India are unlikely to cut demand in the near term. In
fact China is projected to become a net coal importer this year for
the first time on record and with the Olympics around the corner a
further surge in demand is likely.
Higher coal and iron ore prices have boosted incomes in
Australia for a number of years, but the projected increase in the
coming twelve months is by far the biggest.
The higher prices represents good news for Aussie miners and
the Australian economy. The extra dollars will benefit
shareholders of major mining companies, mining workers,
equipment and service suppliers as well as governments via
taxes.
Savanth Sebastian, Equities Economist

agro · 3 July 2008

pitty about the coal prices but that's only temporary to cool things off imo..

other than that, the director acquired 666,666 shares on the 30th of June which is promising..

agro · 9 July 2008

dj_420 - where r ya?! all CEY holders?!

anyone want to explain what's going on

getting sold off massively

michael_selway · 9 July 2008

agro said:
dj_420 - where r ya?! all CEY holders?!

anyone want to explain what's going on

getting sold off massively

Aye, its still going ok!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 6.5 17.1 58.3 72.2
DPS 4.9 10.0 20.0 28.4

thx

MS

white_goodman · 9 July 2008

agro said:
pitty about the coal prices but that's only temporary to cool things off imo..

other than that, the director acquired 666,666 shares on the 30th of June which is promising..

however based upon that number its the devil so maby not...

im looking to buy in around the 18th me thinks

dj_420 · 9 July 2008

agro said:
dj_420 - where r ya?! all CEY holders?!

anyone want to explain what's going on

getting sold off massively

Yeah I am still on board, didnt really have a chance to sell before a massive slump. I am on board at a good price so Ill stick it out.

The sell down in coal stocks has been overdone IMO, especially good ones already in production.

Anyone else still holding?

CEY - Centennial Coal

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