CEH - Coast Entertainment Holdings

[pavilion103]

Updated chart

 

[piggybank]

Daily P&F Update:-

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[tinhat]

"Let your profits run" as they say in the classics.

I set a rising sell conditional order a while ago to take profits on this stock and it got triggered today but my sell order has not executed. I'm thinking there might be a few more cents to squeeze out of this stock yet, but on a fundamental value basis, and from looking at the chart I think the price may have run up a bit hard lately. PE 27 but with a high consensus forecast earnings growth projected over the next two years. The problem is I have sold out of stocks only to regret not staying in. The yield is attractive at the price I paid but taking profit is very tempting right now.

Consensus forecast is for earnings growth to continue and I like this company, management's track record and the industry it operates in.

Looking at the charts, there are TAs here that might consider the break-out today as an entry signal rather than a sell signal?

 

[herzy]

Was today's price action buy the rumour sell the fact? I thought the results were pretty good... something I'm missing?

Agreed it's overvalued tinhat, but it's got strong growth and seems to be solidly making good acquisitions, so will pay off long-term. Low debt, good dividend... Love the company and the stock, and feel the price is justified.

 

[tinhat]

All out at average of $2.66 net of brokerage. I was tossing up whether to leave my profits in the stock as free carry but the remainder of my sell order went through in the pre-open this morning.

Am I out too early? It is overpriced and there are other opportunities. I agree it is a good company that is pursuing growth with a strong balance sheet and reasonable levels of gearing. I will definitely look for an opportunity to re-enter as I see this stock as a good income stock with good growth prospects.

 

[tinhat]

Absolutely kicking myself over this one. Two opportunities to re-enter during late May and the beginning of this month. I told myself in July I would re-enter if price got to $2.50 but I got distracted and kaboom - off she goes.

 

[herzy]

Scaled back to 12% of holding lol. It's had a great run up the last few months. Well actually the last few years. P/e, outlook and yield are all still good. Any alternative views?

 

[Nortorious]

A bit quiet on this thread.

I had a conditional buy order to enter after it breached $3.28 yesterday. Price jumped above my limit of $3.29 immediately but the order stayed in the market and it got filled today.

My risk on this position sees it at around 14% to see if it continues upwards. Stop loss will be adjusted when it can to reduce the risk as we go but overall indicators look ok at this stage.

Let the supply and demand principles work their magic and remain patient...

 

[herzy]

A bit quiet on this thread.

I had a conditional buy order to enter after it breached $3.28 yesterday. Price jumped above my limit of $3.29 immediately but the order stayed in the market and it got filled today.

My risk on this position sees it at around 14% to see if it continues upwards. Stop loss will be adjusted when it can to reduce the risk as we go but overall indicators look ok at this stage.

Let the supply and demand principles work their magic and remain patient...

I love this stock - 5 year, 1 year, 6 month charts are all good (not that I'm much of charter - just pointing out that the stock keeps going up!).

Solid growth prospects, good ROE, low debt, high dividend... Although it's getting slightly pricey, it's still not ridiculous. Lower US$ should also help profits.

Could you be more specific? What price are you hoping to reach? How do you determine your stops?

 

[Nortorious]

First things first, don't ever love a stock!! haha. I learnt that one the hard way a few years back when I was a little less wise...

A stock is only pricey if no one wants to buy it anymore (i.e. more sellers than buyers = stock plateaus and then starts to turnover and head south). I don't buy into other indicators but I run a pretty simple strategy.

So far as the price I'm hoping it will reach, I'd like it to hit anything above $4 but have no indicators or projections saying that is where it is heading. I merely ride the trend and move my stop loss when I can to lock down profit should the tide turn.

To determine my entry stops, I look at the price action from the past. My entries are based on the stock coming out of a trading range. Two types of entries, a continuation entry (which this stock is) and an initial breakout entry (more lucrative as it captures moves after accumulation at lower levels and starts the uptrends).

My stop in this situation considers the trading range and the low of that range. Wherever the lowest bar is on that range (usually a down bar), I look at the 30 week weighted moving average below that point. The stop loss will go just below where the 30 wwma price and if near round numbers, a little bit lower. This provides plenty of scope for movement but also leaves risk a little too high (I'm still refining stop loss placement as I experience more and more trades). A tighter stop would be to put the stop loss just below the trading range low. This is probably a more common method...

Hope that helps and makes sense. More of an art than a science.

Good to see a nice close of $3.39 on AAD today, always good when a stock moves in your favour from the initial point of entry.

 

[herzy]

First things first, don't ever love a stock!! haha. I learnt that one the hard way a few years back when I was a little less wise...

A stock is only pricey if no one wants to buy it anymore (i.e. more sellers than buyers = stock plateaus and then starts to turnover and head south). I don't buy into other indicators but I run a pretty simple strategy.

So far as the price I'm hoping it will reach, I'd like it to hit anything above $4 but have no indicators or projections saying that is where it is heading. I merely ride the trend and move my stop loss when I can to lock down profit should the tide turn.

To determine my entry stops, I look at the price action from the past. My entries are based on the stock coming out of a trading range. Two types of entries, a continuation entry (which this stock is) and an initial breakout entry (more lucrative as it captures moves after accumulation at lower levels and starts the uptrends).

My stop in this situation considers the trading range and the low of that range. Wherever the lowest bar is on that range (usually a down bar), I look at the 30 week weighted moving average below that point. The stop loss will go just below where the 30 wwma price and if near round numbers, a little bit lower. This provides plenty of scope for movement but also leaves risk a little too high (I'm still refining stop loss placement as I experience more and more trades). A tighter stop would be to put the stop loss just below the trading range low. This is probably a more common method...

Hope that helps and makes sense. More of an art than a science.

Good to see a nice close of $3.39 on AAD today, always good when a stock moves in your favour from the initial point of entry.

Thanks Nortorious, it definitely made sense.

You may have noticed that we place very different emphasis on how we make our investment/trade decisions. In that sense, it makes a little bit more sense for me to be in love with a stock than you. I would fall out of love with a stock if its story changed (bad acquisitions, slow down in growth, etc) rather than short term price fluctuations. That said, appreciate the words of warning - definitely good to bear in mind.

 

[Nortorious]

Hi Herzy,

I agree our methods are different but I assume we both have the same goal = make money.

Anyhow, the stock has opened well again today so will continue to track its movement. If I see anything alarming à will let you know but everything seems to be on track thus far.

Here's to some favourable profit percentages coming from this one.

 

[Nortorious]

Hi Herzy,

I agree our methods are different but I assume we both have the same goal = make money.

Anyhow, the stock has opened well again today so will continue to track its movement. If I see anything alarming à will let you know but everything seems to be on track thus far.

Here's to some favourable profit percentages coming from this one.

I got knocked out of this through my stock going back a few sessions. Apologies for not updating this thread... Looks like it may have been a bit premature anyway and I may get back in if it moves back North with some fuel behind it. It could go the other way as well and fall back through the recent short term low that hit me out of my position...

 

[tinhat]

Back in today. The market liked the update even though there are still some business units that are underperforming. Gyms are one of those industries that you wonder why anyone would want to be in. It's really the main event business that is growing strongly through venue expansion and decent performance of existing venues. The leisure industry requires constant re-investment in assets. I think AAD overshot both sides recently. I think its reasonable value at this price but not a screaming bargain. It might still take the instos some time to warm to the new CEO as she will need to prove herself being a woman (oowee!).

 

[CanOz]

Good Ole Classic Chart pattern here....2.80 looks like it was held on the offer a few times...

 

[herzy]

Good Ole Classic Chart pattern here....2.80 looks like it was held on the offer a few times...

Implying what?

 

[Boggo]

Holding again in my SMSF.
Last run was a good one, same again would be nice

Weekly chart - click to expand.

 

[tinhat]

Is today a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? The headline September Quarter results seem impressive. The reported EBITA for the quarter, is up 28.2% from the prior corresponding period and I calculate that, annualised, this represents a 32% increase on last financial year's EBITA. Not a bad dividend yield either (although only partially franked at 24.4%).

Yet the share price is currently down 12% today. Oh well, I guess stocks don't go up in a straight line.

 

[herzy]

Is today a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact? The headline September Quarter results seem impressive. The reported EBITA for the quarter, is up 28.2% from the prior corresponding period and I calculate that, annualised, this represents a 32% increase on last financial year's EBITA. Not a bad dividend yield either (although only partially franked at 24.4%).

Yet the share price is currently down 12%- now 15% - today. Oh well, I guess stocks don't go up in a straight line.

That's what I assumed. Makes very little sense to me, personally. Theme park division seems to be incredible, AUD weaker just means all profits from there are even higher.

Perhaps it's a whole bunch of stop losses being triggered by traders who entered due to the recent positive price action (including, for example, Boggo above).

Either way, a chance to top up. I put the forward p/e at about 8.5, not including any growth from Main Event etc. Plus a good dividend.

 

[Boggo]

....
Perhaps it's a whole bunch of stop losses being triggered by traders who entered due to the recent positive price action (including, for example, Boggo above).

Not guilty, it closed above the stop so still holding.

It's recovering today too.