CDR - Commander Communications

[juw177]

No SevenFX, I sold a bit after my post and completely at my discretion. But you have a good point. I have done this before too, holding on thinking it will bounce back then ending up with a fat loss.

But since I usually buy stocks in an uptrend, holding onto the stock will see it bounce back much more often than not. But of course CDR is not in an uptrend. I was so convinced that the trend was reversing when I bought in at 60c that I let it cloud my judgement.

 

[edvisor]

I sense alot of pain in this town. I too suffered pain recently on this stock choosing to get out at last week's pre-open, expecting it to open at 30c but jumped at the 44c offer.

Too many holders rushing for the small exit sign.
Now its time to go back in cautiously. This is iinet dejavu for mine.

A company with this size market share, revenue and customer base aint going under, although it may take a while to recover.

The media will probably try and come out with an explaination along the lines of how the last remaining fund managers have sold out or there is fear of an impending share issue capital raising, but as I know, its still business as usual at CDR.

Now that the fund managers want nothing to do with this company its now up to us to set the market

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Edvisor, while I'm still a reluctant holder of this stock and think there is a future for CDR, the big thing will be recapitalisation........its possible that a capital raising will render existing stakes almost meaningless when CDR does return to profitability.......most experience in these situations is that price only goes down on recap.......consider the company now has to find people to buy shares at what, 20cents......it better be a rights issue to give us poor saps a better deal but ultimately, even a rights issues itself drags the shareprice down........I'm very much hoping for a bidding war between Optus and AApt and don't believe its out of the question

 

[ROE]

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15010/598/

more win ...if they dont make some money on these deal and pay down some debt then I pick the wrong company but by this time next year they pay down a little bit of debt I be very happy.

 

[tsunami227]

They gained a bit today.

I do hope that the massive sell out a few days ago is just people panicking due to 2 weeks of no trade. Some people might need their cash back qucikly perhaps or some do margin lending and now pfacing margin call so yeah.

I will hold them until June.

 

[roland]

CDR is one of our largest customers. We supply computer peripherals to them, and I have to say they are the perfect customer. Good orders and payment on time - every time. We inherited CDR as a customer through the absorbtion of Volante and Commander.

I run an IT company and would personally be quite inclined not to invest in any computer retailing related business - the profit margins are close to non-existance due to massive competition and zero regulation. We currently survive on less than 3% gross profit, some of our competitors are doing less. Most Apple resellers do 2% on cost.

CDR have some advantage with Government contracts, and the Australian Government, as with most Governments are not very good at controlling costs, let alone the corrupt tendering process. Additionally the telecommunication support they do are quite encompassing and would add value to their portfolio of services making them an attractive take over target.

I think, long term, you will make a few bucks - but realistically you could do a lot better in different market areas.

 

[ROE]

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22651462-15306,00.html

6 Bidders Volante just resign 2 IT contracts so that make it attractive to IT company .

 

[SevenFX]

I think the hardest thing to do is seeing any stock go back up after loosing money on it...

But jumping back in if you've done stock F/A and SP value is below, and chart has broken long term downtrend, in more than one timeframe... maybe a consideration...

However IMO were in a choppy market, and despite what TA & FA says overhead pressures from sectors/markets overall will still influence it's direction combined with gitterey holders looking for any exit...

Interesting to see where she settles and if the buyers are still strong after rush hour this morning... IMO

SevenFX

 

[SevenFX]

Just a basic chart, though all that is needed to see where downtrend breaks into uptrend starts...

SevenFX

 

[adamwu]

Hi SevenFX,

I am not good at chart analyzing, do you mean the true uptrend would be confirmed after the sp rise to 60c in this up cycle? Thanks.

 

[ROE]

someone must see value in CDR Hunter Hall just take a 5% stake in CDR
are there more to follow ?

 

[Rainmaker2000]

That's interesting info ROE.....I doubt there will be others as the manager over there must not have too much respect for his current position to take that position....not that that's not how the industry should work....it should work like that but unfortunately the last people to make money out of this situation will be the professional fund managers who are too busy recommending BHP and RIO...Hunter Hall is of course 'boutique' but still it's a brave call

 

[edvisor]

Hunter Hall seems to have quite a track record. I don't think they make their investment decisions too lightly, although 5% of CDR is hardly a risk for them.

It's almost ripe to get back into CDR as a good speculative buy for mine, now that the glass half empty crowd has sold out and HH has given them the tick.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

That's exactly my point.....there should be more funds like Hunter Hall.....and this call from them is a good one........my point is also that the 'funds management industry' in general a mediocre affair caring little about outperformance and more about not embarrising themselves and stopping those lovely fees from rolling in..there will thus probably not be more new substantial holders..It's going to be an interesting ride on CDR

 

[ROE]

That's interesting info ROE.....I doubt there will be others as the manager over there must not have too much respect for his current position to take that position....not that that's not how the industry should work....it should work like that but unfortunately the last people to make money out of this situation will be the professional fund managers who are too busy recommending BHP and RIO...Hunter Hall is of course 'boutique' but still it's a brave call

It's always a brave call going against the market and that make these guys special. They have the guts to walk the talk and if thing do turn around and they double their profit good for them.

The thing I want to see if they going to raise that to a 7% or 10% stake down the track. Interesting time ahead

 

[ROE]

CDR buck the trend and up 1.27% (2:36pm) in a day full of red
guess most people don't think this stock is over price.

 

[ROE]

what do you know ... Hunter Hall increase their holding just over 7% now
Now I can rest a little bit easier knowing there are people out there with lot of money think the same way I do

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Good call ROE....to be honest I still only hold CDR cause I was too weak and had not researched the buy enough to know I should have sold around 1$...hehe.....It's been good times on the market but I'm making sure I focus on my failure on CDR cause I just didn't do enough research.........Aside from that, I'm still holding cause it is a very strategic asset for AAPT and Optus and I want to make sure my lesson is learnt at as low a cost as possible.........I'm actually very surprised HH is going towards a blocking stake...CDR is a high risk play right now.....my belief is that its insolvent and the banks have almost conceded as much...but it does have value for their competitors

 

[ROE]

Another win for CDR keep them coming
I'm actually surprise they win so many IT contracts cos it's a very competitive business

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15225/598/

 

[adamwu]

ROE, thanks very much for all your info. Just don't get it why CDR won so many great contracts recently, but the sp still weak, even weaker? You rechon when the situation will change, after the next half-year ann?