CDR - Commander Communications

Rainmaker2000 said:

Has anyone digested the annual report yet.....what a disgrace.....I can't believe they used shareholder funds to do a big spin job in the opening pages about the brilliant year that was for Commander........I particularly liked the touch on the pages attached to the report where they talk about renegotiated banking facilities, how they are desperately putting the thing up for sale with a 'data room' and then next para.........how they are well porsitioned to 'improve profit growth'.........I got caught out on this puppy, but thankfully I knew enough not to insert serious capital...........On the plus side, the banks do appear to have given them some flexibility to 'recapitalise' but the best move is probably sale at this stage........I'm still getting my head around the spin in the report which hails the Volante acquisition as a worldbeater

Click to expand...

I just read parts of the report ,and to be truthful ,on a day like we have today ie ASX soaring,the investor confidence seems parrelled to this fact ,and CDR is pushing the typing ribbon into overdrive jargon.Iits not a good yarn that they are spinning. For talk of a possible takeover it's like a RHG saga all over again .Somebody might step in and take the risk on CDR ,but it will go for fraction ,or a fractel ?
I pulled up to a CDR car at the traffic lights a few days and asked the driver how CDR are going .......His reply was "MATE !!! no problem they're paying my mortgage off ! "........10 out 10 perhaps he should work in the accounts dept!
Can't wait to ditch ......

Oh man. Looks like a gap down to 50c will happen on the open. But you can say that all the troubles with the company is factored into the shareprice already and if someone wants to takeover the company, they will come in to buy up. This will be indicated in the price action today.

CDR Company Trading Status: Pre-Open Indicative Price: 0.46 Surplus Volume: 19500 Market Status: Pre-Open at 9:10 AM

Caused by one seller @ 0.380 100,000

300k & 150k appears @ 60c & 63c resp. bringing the iopen price to 57.5c, but will it fill or dissapear.

Open doesn't look so bad now compared to 22% down few minutes ago...

SevenFX said:

300k & 150k appears @ 60c & 63c resp. bringing the iopen price to 57.5c, but will it fill or dissapear.

Open doesn't look so bad now compared to 22% down few minutes ago...

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CDR 0.44 -0.155 -26.05% 1,891,769 share $824,766 @19-Oct 10:02:31 AM

CDR 0.44 -0.155 -26.05% 1,891,769 share $824,766 @19-Oct 10:02:31 AM

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22612619-15306,00.html

Damn I hate this 100 Minimum Char message stuff

Hi ROE,

Do you think a bidding war will start pushing the price up? Or do you think it will become another RAMS?

Cheers,

Manny.

MannyB said:

Hi ROE,

Do you think a bidding war will start pushing the price up? Or do you think it will become another RAMS?

Cheers,

Manny.

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Manny...

Isn't it already a RAMS?????

This will be a fire sale - any purchaser has the ultimate upper hand in that without a purchaser, they are surely insolvent....... I stated this back when i saw the prelims......... Stay away at all costs is my opinion....... But hey, I could be wrong....

Cheers
Reece

There was an article on Australian IT paper today saying that there are number of potential buyers for CDR including Optus?

Do you think the SP will go up if there is an offer? how much does it worth?

Cheers
QR2007

It would seem pretty rare that the player with the leading market share goes and shoots itself in the foot like this.......maybe its wishful thinking but this is a lot different to RAMS.......CDR may not be worth much right now (I read that its auditors hesitated signing off on the annual report....the part about 'going concern..hehehe) but it has a strong market share so its of massive value to AAPT and Optus........even Mac Bank is looking at it and you can see why...exercise a tiny bit of good management, cost control and feed it bit by bit to the industry players who sound like they are having a hard time getting traction in the market (probably cause CDR was cutting margins too low).......maybe its wishful thinking but it does not seem like another RAMS except for the sheer incompetence and the threat of involvency

Well, at least i now know the makeup of the giant intangible asset.

Not good reading IMO. Most of it is goodwill from aquisitions and I seriously think that in the current circumstances, they face some big writedowns here in the next year or two. Do you really think their aquisitions are still worth the extra 200 million they spent on them, over and above the value of those aquisitions' assets?

The other negative thing is they capitalise software development costs. For those that don't realise what this is.. it appears they have spent a heap of money on programmers but they are accounting for that expenditure over a time frame - (something like 5 years - my guess). They do this on the presumption that whatever they are developing will last them for that period (eg 5 years).

So the un-recognised expenture from this is listed as an asset on the books.

I don't like this, only because I used to work for a company who did this and they are no longer in existance due to cashflow issues.

Software in particular, how can you know how long it will return value for? To me this is a technique in improving the income statement. Software requires continual investment and the time-frame that you realise value from it, is very rarely any more than a year or two at best.

If it was longer, then the next version of MSOffice will be Office 2012

I know this share is post mortem,and regi-mortis has set in,but as a lesson to be learn't I wonder if Volante was the last straw ,or whether CDR was imploding already.........Makes me think if so VGL was more hope ,then a sound plan

MannyB said:

Hi ROE,

Do you think a bidding war will start pushing the price up? Or do you think it will become another RAMS?

Cheers,

Manny.

Click to expand...

I have no idea , everyone is speculating this and that but until such time no one really know.

Everyone either think it worth something or everyone think it's going bankrupt.

This to me look like iinet going back not too long ago when they take over ozemail .. remember everyone is bailing out and it trading 65 cents a year ago and think this stock wont last....now it's nearly 3 times the price tag.. go figure....for me fear create opportunity

I got CDR stocks and I'm holding and as long as they not going bankrupt I'm happy ... I usually give stocks 2-3 years to turn around before I think whether I should dump it or not.

Commander presses on despite doubts
Sunday, October 21, 2007; Posted: 02:27 PM
Oct 21, 2007 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) -- VLGPF | charts | news | PowerRating -- Embattled telecommunications and IT services group Commander Communications has secured an Australian Government contract. The Department of Finance & Administration has renewed an IT contract that Commander's subsidiary Volante Group has held since November 2004. The renewed contract is initially for two years, with a three-year option, and is worth $A5m per year. Commander executives recently indicated that the group is seeking a buyer for its assets.

Publication Date: 22 October 2007

$23 million contract won by Commander Communications

23-10-2007 Australilan IT

THE Victorian Department of Education has decided to introduce Microsoft's Vista operating system to 1600 schools and offices in what is likely to be the largest local deal for the software to date.

The decision accompanies the awarding of a $23 million contract to Commander Communications that covers the supply of Microsoft software licences to the Victorian Department of Education and Early Childhood Development.

The contract covers about 164,000 devices and a number of Microsoft's most recent software releases, including Windows Vista, Office 2007 and Server 2008.

Microsoft public sector director Nigel Cadywould confirmed that the Department of Education had committed to roll out Vista, but he could not say when the organisation would make the move.

"We're super-excited about the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development's decision to deploy Vista as its standard operating system," he said.

"There are no announcements yet on when or how that will happen, but the department has made the decision."

Mr Cadywould said Vista would probably be rolled out to Victorian public schools and Department of Education agencies and business offices within the three-year term of the Commander contract.

Most corporate and government computer users typically wait until the first service pack for a new operating system has been released before moving away from more established technology.

It is likely that Victoria's Department of Education would adhere to that practice.

Commander Communications managing director Adrian Coote welcomed the win, which covers software that will be used by 540,000 students and 40,000 teachers in the Victorian public school system.

"The Victorian Department of Education and Early Childhood Development is one of Commander's most important, long-standing contracts," Mr Coote said.

''After such a long working relationship, it's very rewarding to have our quality of service and value re-acknowledged and rewarded through a competitive tender process."

The line-up of Microsoft products covered by the contract includes Visio, Project, Expression Web, SQL Server and Exchange Server, as well as Vista, Office 2007 and Server 2008. Commander will also manage a portal, dubbed IPEX @Schools, which school communities use for help desk services and to order software CDs.

The portal is branded Ipex because the formerly independent PC builder won the original Department of Education software contract in 1993 and then passed it down to Commander through acquisition.

Ipex was acquired by Volante in 2004 and Volante was acquired by Commander last year.
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22630957-15306,00.html

two good news, but cdr sp still dropping. Looks like these contracts still can't support its sp. Or some bad guy wanna people believe CDR is rubbish?

This has to be one of the worst stocks ever. It has halved in value every 1.5 months. And I am still holding (from just before suspend at 60c) because I am thinking it is oversold since nothing has changed between the suspension and now.

This along with BDG & RHG to name a few have continued to fall from highs, because someone else suffered pain, and was willing to let it go at a loss..

The hardest thing to do is to let go at the bottom of your hold, which now seems easier to let go at the top.....made the mistake few times myself so speaking from painful experience.

Also I've hear people coin the phrase "If you roll around with dogs, you will get fleas" or something like that... CDR, RHG, BDG sad but true generally.

You may get lucky, and win some but you have to be quick In n Out, and read things well, but generally going against the trend is not your friend.

I said to myself I wasnt going to sell at support levels (30c). But I've sold out now. 50% loss within a month. Thats a new record. Now sitting back to watch the bounce.

juw177 said:

I said to myself I wasnt going to sell at support levels (30c). But I've sold out now. 50% loss within a month. Thats a new record. Now sitting back to watch the bounce.

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uhhh I hope I didn't make you do that, as was not the intention.

More so to bring to attention of these types of stocks, and how it's easy to get caught, on the belief the will bounce straight after a buy in....(not)

Anyway even if it rally's tommorow, do look at it, and influence your judgement on the next one.

Like I said, I have done it the same b4 (more than once) and refuse to fall into same trap.

SevenFX