What is the stockval thing? some program tell you when you buy and sell stocks ? .... and why do you use it? if that is the case
CCP - Credit Corp Group
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What is the stockval thing? some program tell you when you buy and sell stocks ? .... and why do you use it? if that is the case
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Yeh, what is stockval? Is it a valuation that CAM applies?
I just value stocks myself, for better or for worse.
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I wonder if all those who bought this stock last Nov thought it was a bargain......hasn't gone anywhere but south since.....
lol, dun haf stockval, but tell me when u get the results.
stockval is a program by cam to value stocks. i think it uses IRR primary
anyways that factor of 12.5% seems good considering npat/ebita was 20 and above % for the previous 4 years
9npat million would be an apprioriate figure without considering a margin of safety. but i still maintain that ia margin of 50% or more is needed considering the two profit downgrades. from its inital estimate 24 million npat to 9 million npat, that is a major bullet to its management credibility.
what is everyone opinion of its eps growth rate for year 2009?
stockval is a program by cam to value stocks. i think it uses IRR primary
anyways that factor of 12.5% seems good considering npat/ebita was 20 and above % for the previous 4 years
9npat million would be an apprioriate figure without considering a margin of safety. but i still maintain that ia margin of 50% or more is needed considering the two profit downgrades. from its inital estimate 24 million npat to 9 million npat, that is a major bullet to its management credibility.
what is everyone opinion of its eps growth rate for year 2009?
Investor Mutual has been calling so many dud investments a buy all the way down:
CYG (increasing holding from $6 all the way down to $2.5 for over 2 years)
IAG (calling it a buy at $5.5, and now $3.5)
TAH (calling it a buy at $16, and now $13.5)
and more duds from the past PBB, AMC, SPT, ENE.
I have given up on these guys.
Therefore working on a NPAT of 4.5 million, 50% margin of safety, with 43 million shares outstanding gives earnings of 10cents per share. If CCP have a payout ratio of 50% then 5 cents per share will be returned. Therefore yield will be 5% with large margin of safety applied. Without margin of safety yield will be 10%.
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Claims such as the involvement of hedge funds in the trading of this stock need to be backed up with some solid evidence. Otherwise, don't make the claims.
Lets stick to the facts please.
Lets stick to the facts please.
I said that it wouldn't surprise me that hedge funds were getting into this stock. This is a comment not a statement of fact and I appologise if it was read that way and I will refrain from drawing conclusions.
I would be interested to know how this could be verified unless you were the short seller anyway. Do short sellers/ hedge funds have the same disclosure requirements as someone who has owned a stock and sells a large portion of their holding?
I would be interested to know how this could be verified unless you were the short seller anyway. Do short sellers/ hedge funds have the same disclosure requirements as someone who has owned a stock and sells a large portion of their holding?
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Nothing wrong with a little speculation, but when somebody says they know something to be a fact, and are asked to provide evidence and are then evasive. Well that is stepping over the line... at least on this forum.
If you claim to know something to be factual then you are expected to provide some evidence of it. Otherwise, please don't post it on ASF.
If you claim to know something to be factual then you are expected to provide some evidence of it. Otherwise, please don't post it on ASF.
In defence of Stockval I have used it to great advantage over the last few years. I do not have the time or skill to put an intrinsic value on most stocks so it helps enormously with this.
In defence of Roger Montgomery I have always found him to be honest and forthright in his assessments of companies. Once again I cannot get out and talk to Management like he can so I rely on him doing this.
He talked to CCP last time and stated
"Following three meetings with management, including CEO Geoff Lucas, we are confident that the value of the ledgers has not deteriorated. Indeed if more experienced collections staff occupied the seats of the new staff, collections at that seat would rise significantly confirming the quality of the ledgers has not deteriorated."
You can't do more than that.
I am not exactly thrilled with CCP at the moment but I don't feel like anyone has lied to me . (eg: Centro and their debt)
AL
Dont worry mate, you made a dud every now and then for what it is worth.
If it trade like the price it close today I will buy another 10,000 shares come opening tomorrow.... I have my reasons and conviction, no one can tell me otherwise.
My sell order for other stocks just got executed before the close when the stock rally to the price I want, so I'm all cashed up.
Thanks.
I will probably buy more tommorrow also. Just sold off some LHG and OSH a few weeks back so I have a some spare pennies.
BTW. If you can shed some light on your investment strategy I would be interested.
"I have my reasons and conviction no one can tell me otherwise." .....sounds interesting.
AL
From my limited understanding of this company, a big issue is the high internal leverage means that the company may have to offload large chuncks of ledger investments at below purchase price. Other issues apart from resignation of CEO (who was the CFO at the time of purchasing over valued ledger investments) is high turnover of staff with 65% of the collection team being employed for less than a year.
Just because something is 'cheaper' does not mean it is value. At least as far as this company is concerned.
Just because something is 'cheaper' does not mean it is value. At least as far as this company is concerned.
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Guys
According to my latest short list data, CCP isn't even a valid shortable stock... therefore, any hedge fund foul play would be off the cards. Plus, it's relatively illiquid (except for today), I just don't think they would bother. I think todays capitulation is just about the fact that if you have 2 profit downgrades in 4 months in a bear market, you have to expect to be hammered.
Blaze, I personally would be focusing on cash flow as opposed to EPS growth with a firm like this - you can fudge the book values of their debt using mark to mark valuations, but the cash flow would be a giveaway. I haven't done the numbers myself, but the chart tells the story.... Plus, as chill states, it's the realisable value of their debt book that is an issue. Remember that these guys were aggressive in acquiring impaired loan books - do you think the value of these books has increased or decrease in the last 6 months.. what about the books prospects for the future...... I'm not saying that I think that you need to sell the stock further, but these are the questions on the markets mind.
My condolences to all who were hit by this one today, it's never nice to wake up to such a huge capitulation.
Cheers
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Damn this has been pumped last price 91c.
That is 77% wiped off the share price..?? Am I looking at the right company still??
Are people expecting this company to fold or looking at this as a potential turn around point??
That is 77% wiped off the share price..?? Am I looking at the right company still??
Are people expecting this company to fold or looking at this as a potential turn around point??
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