CCC - Continental Coal

Link to MW report

Highlights from the report:

"Continental Coal is strategically well positioned to benefit from continuing growth in coal demand in China, India and other developing Asian economies. Recent initiatives, particularly the acquisition of Mashala in September of 2010, should catapult the company to mid-tier coal company status in South Africa. Due to Continental’s solid resource base (of over 600 Mt) and demonstrated ability to access necessary rail and port infrastructure for thermal coal exports, we believe the company is poised to ramp up production substantially. Management is targeting production of 7 Mtpa by 2012, up from an existing 2 Mtpa of capacity.

“Nonetheless, we have modeled relatively more conservative operating and financial assumptions. We do note that macro tailwinds such as continuing pricing momentum should be an incremental plus. We view Continental’s relationship with EDF as strategic and beneficial. Domestically, we expect Eskom’s pricing structure to improve in the coming years although we do expect less near-term clarity. We expect 2012 EBITDA to turn positive (despite high capex needs) and to expand meaningfully in 2013. Our rating of Accumulate and 12-month price target of A$0.09 are based on a discounted cash flow valuation and NAV analysis. While we believe the longer-term upside is significant given EBITDA ramp-up potential and positive coal macro fundamentals, we continue to monitor resolution of macro issues (infrastructure, domestic pricing, regulatory issues) as well as successful execution on the two upcoming mining projects (Penumbra and De Wittekrans)."

Recent M&A transaction confirm implied valuation. Recent M&A transactions highlight the value of Continental’s asset base. On May 4, 2011 Optimum Coal (OPT SJ, ZAR 29.00, Not Rated) announced a deal to pay ZAR 420 million in cash for Umcebo Mining’s two prospecting rights containing an in-situ coal resource of about 120 Mt of thermal coal. At the implied resource value of US$0.52/t, we calculate a resource-based per share value of CCC shares at A$0.08. As Continental unlocks the value of its extensive resource base and ramps up EBITDA, we would expect the share price to more clearly reflect the underlying value of the company’s assets.” p. 26 MW report

also some coverage on Proactive Investors Australia today:

Continental Coal receives bullish 12 month target from US Investment Bank Madison Williams

Right or wrong - sold CCC at a loss after holding for a significant time.
Dealers and Diggers have also stated in their update that CCC is no more a darling for them and has reached Sell figure. Ironically the shares dived two points once the report came today.
In core of my heart I think CCC is a charm but my head said - sell it

It will be only the outcome of Government of Botswana and its plan to see better days for CCC.

ASX:CCC - Open Briefing Interview with Jason Brewer

Jason Brewer discusses FY12 ROM production targets for Vlakvarkfontein and Ferreira mines, the Penumbra Coal Project development commencing and maiden reserves statement & AIM listing and new BEE partner

Open Briefing interview:
Continental Coal recently announced that in May 2011 both the Vlakvarkfontein (CCC 44.4%) and Ferreira (CCC 74.0%) thermal coal mines exceeded their monthly production targets, with total run-of-mine (ROM) production from both mines now expected to exceed 500,000 tonnes in the June 2011 quarter. This compares with total ROM production of 318,800 tonnes in the March 2011 quarter. How was the higher than expected ramp-up in production achieved and what is the outlook for ROM coal production from the Vlakvarkfontein and Ferreira mines over FY12?

Executive Director Jason Brewer

The record ROM production in May 2011 was particularly encouraging for the Company as we’ll now book our fifth successive quarter of increased ROM production from our South African thermal coal operations. This result is due to our operational management team’s continued focus on optimising the existing opencast operations at Vlakvarkfontein and Ferreira and our strong and clearly successful relationship with our mining contractors at both operations.

The Vlakvarkfontein mine is a very conventional opencast mining operation with a low strip ratio. After a prolonged period of ramping up production and having secured land access over the majority of the project area, we are in a fortunate position of having established a large open pit operating area. This gives us significant flexibility in our mining operations both in terms of scale of operations, increasing production rates and the actual coal qualities we can target and extract.

The Ferreira mine is a far more challenging mine than the Vlakvarkfontein mine. In November 2010, following Continental assuming operating control of the Ferreira mine, management made two very significant operating decisions, with the appointment of a new mining contractor and the commencement of the new southern opencast mine. The increases in production achieved since November are very pleasing with the mine now exceeding the targeted production we set at that time. Our new mining contractor at the Ferreira mine is performing very well and we believe that the operation has a lot more to offer over the next 12 months.

Going forward we are confident that quarterly ROM production targets of 465,000 tonnes can be achieved in FY12.
Development of the Penumbra Coal Project (CCC 74.0% post acquisition of the 35.9% balance of interest in Mashala Resources) is scheduled to commence shortly, following a delay to its initially expected February 2011 start. Can you provide some further background on the project, as well as the main project milestones ahead of achieving full production, currently targeted for the first quarter of 2012?

Executive Director Jason Brewer

The development of the Penumbra Coal Project is the Company’s key priority. Its development is critical in demonstrating to not only our shareholders but also potential institutional investors that we are on our path of achieving our targeted ROM production rate of 7 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in the next 18 months.

We are confident that development of the Penumbra Project will successfully ramp up over July 2011 following the Company attending to mine operation optimisation and unavoidable delays due to changes in the operating environment affecting new coal operations in South Africa. First production is expected to be achieved early in the first quarter of 2012.

The Company appointed consultants in December 2010 to both manage and complete the construction and commissioning work at the Penumbra Coal Project, including surface site construction, civil and earth works, pollution and co-disposal dams, electrical supply, decline development and procurement of all the underground machinery. During March 2011 further detailed engineering and optimisation work on the project was completed ahead of a planned commencement of site works. As a result of this work the Company made the decision to relocate the shaft portal excavation and initial decline development site. This required an amendment to be made and Governmental approvals to the Company’s existing permits and development plans. It also initiated a period of additional consultation with local landowners and other nearby affected parties.

As our shareholders are aware, operating in South Africa has its rewards as well as its challenges, and increasingly over the past 12 months, the Company has become aware of an increased focus by environmental groups and non-governmental groups on both new mine development and current mining operations. Many of our peers in South Africa have indeed experienced this first hand, with delays in permitting and restrictions on operations and development activities.

As a company, we need to demonstrate and ensure that at all times we are applying industry best practices and not exposing the Company and its shareholders to any unfounded or unnecessary criticism or unwarranted public attention that may impact our ability to operate as a good corporate citizen in South Africa. To this end the Company will continue to engage with all governmental departments and affected stakeholders to ensure we maintain an exceptional operating record, continued compliance and ongoing improvement at each of our operations. This may at times result in extended timelines and potential delays but the Company believes this will in the long term enhance our position with the various South African governmental departments and stakeholders in our projects to allow us to gain their full and ongoing support.

It is important to put the four month delay into perspective. The Penumbra Mine is scheduled to produce 900,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of ROM production over an initial 10 year mine life. Only last week we announced an increased resource for the project of 68.3 million tonnes (Mt) an increase from the 25 Mt previously reported which should (upon further feasibility work) lead to a substantial increase of the initial mine life.

part 2:

openbriefing.com

Continental Coal recently announced an updated reserves and resources assessment for its South African projects, including a maiden reserve statement for the Vlakvarkfontein and Ferreira mines and Penumbra Coal Project. What are the key results from this update?

Executive Director Jason Brewer

This report is by far the most definitive review completed over the projects we manage in South Africa since we acquired our initial interests in many of these projects and acquired the majority interest in Mashala Resources in November 2010.
The maiden reserve statement and updated resource statements were completed as part of the Company’s proposed listing on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange and form part of an independent technical report completed by global mining experts SRK Consulting.

Independent geological consultants, Gemecs (Pty) Limited, Ukwazi Mining and CCIC Coal (Pty) Ltd completed the updated resource and reserve assessment as part of their review and audit of the Company’s South African thermal coal projects.
The maiden reserve statement of 19.9 Mt for the Vlakvarkfontein and Ferreira mines and the Penumbra project is a significant milestone for the Company and its ability to demonstrate bankable reserves.

Major increases in the resources at the Penumbra Coal Project from 25 Mt to 68.3 Mt and an increase in the measured resources at the De Wittekrans Coal Project (CCC 74.0% post acquisition of Mashala Resources) from 8 Mt to 13 are also very significant for shareholders given that these two projects are forecast to be brought into production over the next 18 months. The resource increase at our Vlakplaats Coal Project (CCC 37.0%), where we have a joint venture agreement with KORES, the Korean State Mining and Exploration Company, to 188 Mt up from the previous 122 Mt is also a significant result.

In addition to the many positives that we can take from the updated resource and reserve assessment, there are a number of discrepancies from earlier resource statements that have prompted management to complete further work and drilling. In certain projects (such as Vaalbank and Project X (CCC 51.8%)), a proportion of our previously reported inferred resources have now been determined to require additional limited drilling in order to be classified as inferred resources.

openbriefing.com

Continental Coal has proposed a 10 for one share consolidation that will be put to shareholders for approval at the Company’s General Meeting scheduled for 29 June. What is the rationale for seeking a share consolidation?

Executive Director Jason Brewer

A consolidation of the Company’s share capital has been discussed with many of our shareholders and several international institutional investors and investment funds over the past 12 months. Indeed it was a discussion point at the Company’s AGM last year.

Increasingly we have been approached by institutional investors and investment funds in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia regarding potential significant investments in the Company. The large majority of these institutions have made it very clear to the Company that, irrespective of our growth potential or current market capitalisation and value proposition, their investment mandates preclude them from investing in Continental with its shares trading at their current “penny-stock” price levels.

Based on these discussions and after further feedback from our advisors, we are of the firm opinion that in order to attract significant investment into the Company from international institutional investors and investment funds, we need to create a more efficient capital structure and share price for a listed entity of Continental’s size and market capitalisation.

The Company currently has more than 3.0 billion shares on issue due to historical equity- based capital raisings and corporate transactions. This is disproportionate versus our peer group listed on the ASX and AIM. We believe that the proposed share consolidation will result in a far more appropriate and effective capital structure for the Company and a share price more appealing to a wider range and larger number of institutional investors globally.

openbriefing.com

At the Company’s upcoming General Meeting, shareholders are also being asked to approve the issuance of equity to Masawu Investments Limited (Masawu) your current Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) partner, subject to a new BEE partner acquiring Masawu’s 26 percent interest in the Company’s South African subsidiary and repaying all or part of the intercompany loan that Continental has provided to Masawu to allow it to fund its interest in Continental’s subsidiary. Can you provide some further background on the new BEE partner, the timing of the transaction and its significance for Continental’s shareholders?

Executive Director Jason Brewer

As we advised in the Notice of Meeting the Company is in very advanced discussions with a broad based BEE group that is proposing to acquire Masawu’s 26 percent interest in the Company’s South African subsidiary. We are very close to finalising this transaction and anticipate being able to announce more details on it, including the specific BEE group, in the next few days.

It is anticipated that should the acquisition proceed, the new BEE will enhance the Company’s position in the South African investment community and political framework. In addition the new BEE has a robust balance sheet and the financial capacity to fund its pro rata share of development costs of our portfolio of coal projects in South Africa going forward.

This is particularly significant for the Company’s shareholders, given that to date the Company has funded 100 percent of the development costs in South Africa and like many international investors, financially carried its BEE partner into production. The repayment of all or the majority of the approximate US$30 million intercompany loan that has accrued since October 2008, and is contemplated to be made as a condition of this transaction, will also allow the Company to re-invest this immediately back into its South African business and aggressively advance a number of its other projects and initiatives.

openbriefing.com

Continental Coal plans to list on AIM in July 2011. Why have you chosen to list on AIM, what is the status of the proposed listing, and what is the significance of the timing of this decision?

Executive Director Jason Brewer

The Company is very well advanced with its proposed listing on AIM. A Pre-Admission Document is undergoing its final review by our Nominated Advisor RFC, by our joint brokers in London, GMP and Renaissance Capital, and by our other consultants.

A Competent Persons Report completed by leading independent South African mining consultants, SRK Consulting, has been finalised and will be released to the market shortly. Legal and financial due diligence is being finalised by South African and Australian based lawyers and consultants and our AIM share registry documents have already been executed.

The timing for releasing the 20 day Pre-Admission Document is being finalised but is expected to be on 30 June allowing for an AIM listing date on 29 July. The Company is excited by the opportunity the AIM listing offers. It will provide the Company with improved access to global investors and institutional support and to a market that has a proven record of having invested and supported resource project development since the turn of the last century. A number of the world’s largest mining companies have their primary listing in London. The simultaneous rapid expansion of AIM has seen analytical coverage broaden substantially. There is a good understanding of investing in Africa, supported by geographical proximity and similar time zones. In addition it is expected to enhance our profile in the European markets and allow us to leverage our strategic and financial relationship with EDF Trading, part of Europe’s largest power utility.

The timing is very important as it comes ahead of a significant year of growth for the Company with the planned development of the Penumbra and De Wittekrans projects, feasibility study work on the Vlakplaats project, drilling in Botswana and potentially a new BEE partner in South Africa. With all of this planned, we believe the Company will be particularly attractive to London and other European institutional investors.
Thank you Jason

http://conticoalers.com/2011/06/21/open-briefing-interview-with-executive-director-jason-brewer/

Re: the sell recommendation from "that" publication - CCC can now flush out all those impatient short term traders, and people too lazy to do their research, or set their own stop losses. On the topic of nationalisation which the author gives as a reason for selling, have a look at this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO-XKyUUoOo&e=45
and this: http://www.miningweekly.com/article...-costs-of-nationalisation-debate-2011-06-21-1

And Eskom is calling for R100 billion to be spent over the next 7 years, with at least 15 new mines needed in Mpumalunga (where CCC are) to source enough coal to meet SA electricity needs - go & ask Julius & his numbskull ZanuPF cronies where that money is coming from? How well is Zimbabwe doing now Julius? They just had to shut down their airline, because of not paying fuel bills - what a joke!

I wonder if his many subscribers knew that the good “Doctor” is in fact a veterinary doctor. Anyway, here is a great take on that publication & its ethics:

“i understand that he cannot publish the stop-loss level on each stock beforehand for obvious reasons but the fact is that the decision mechanism remains non-transparent, how do people know he didn’t sell just because a conversation with one of the CCC managers didn’t please him etc.
1 thing i can say is that the way he presents his performance is VERY misleading
i’m a qualified CFA and know 100% that i could never do this for moral and ethical reasons
1. he removes the bad performing stocks and leaves the performance without the realised losses
2. he often puts annualised returns in his tables even if the stock has been held for less than 1 year (a big no no)
3. he goes from BUY recommendation (BUY CCC up to 15c) to straight SELL
i could go on but just wanted to highlight how very misleading these types of newsletters are
i actually subscribe to his e-mails to know when to be cautious on buying stocks (i have made it a rule to never BUY one of his recommendations or short where appropriate)
hope newbies pay a little more attention to his fancy rhetoric and tables in the future, why ASIC lets him continue in this fashion (return presentation) is beyond me but I’m not surprised, the regulation of the investment community in Australia has been broken for a long time”
””
thanks to “Chimera” for that great piece – first posted on HotCCCopper.

Now we wait to find out who BEE2 is, what they bring to the table, and if CCC will use the $20m – $30m cash to pay off the 36% balance of Mashala. From the wording used by Jason, this BEE transaction should be a game changer for CCC. CCC will not need to raise more funds when they already have strong revenues & profitability, $10m from VanMag sale, $5m still from EDF, potentially $30m from the new BEE partner (which can pay off Mashala), as well as a likely commitment from them (read the OB below again) to fund their 26% share of capex & operating costs.

Good luck to all bargain hunters – I picked up more oppies at 1.7c yesterday – they look set to bounce hard & fast from here.

There are some great articles out on Mining Weekly today which have a lot of relevance to CCC: http://www.miningweekly.com/page/africa
Especially the one on the TKR starting construction next year, along with other African coal rail infrastructure developments.

Great close to the trading today at 4.2c on very strong volume - let's see if tomorrow & Friday can give us a bullish reversal confirmation candle or two.

http://www.conticoalers.com

vimuttirasa said:

Re: the sell recommendation from "that" publication - CCC can now flush out all those impatient short term traders, and people too lazy to do their research, or set their own stop losses. On the topic of nationalisation which the author gives as a reason for selling, have a look at this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO-XKyUUoOo&e=45
and this: http://www.miningweekly.com/article...-costs-of-nationalisation-debate-2011-06-21-1

xxxx
I wonder if his many subscribers knew that the good “Doctor” is in fact a veterinary doctor. Anyway, here is a great take on that publication & its ethics:

“i understand that he cannot publish the stop-loss level on each stock beforehand for obvious reasons but the fact is that the decision mechanism remains non-transparent, how do people know he didn’t sell just because a conversation with one of the CCC managers didn’t please him etc.
1 thing i can say is that the way he presents his performance is VERY misleading
i’m a qualified CFA and know 100% that i could never do this for moral and ethical reasons1. he removes the bad performing stocks and leaves the performance without the realised losses
2. he often puts annualised returns in his tables even if the stock has been held for less than 1 year (a big no no)
3. he goes from BUY recommendation (BUY CCC up to 15c) to straight SELL
i could go on but just wanted to highlight how very misleading these types of newsletters are
i actually subscribe to his e-mails to know when to be cautious on buying stocks (i have made it a rule to never BUY one of his recommendations or short where appropriate)
hope newbies pay a little more attention to his fancy rhetoric and tables in the future, why ASIC lets him continue in this fashion (return presentation) is beyond me but I’m not surprised, the regulation of the investment community in Australia has been broken for a long time”
—
thanks to “Chimera” for that great piece – first posted on HotCCCopper.

Good luck to all bargain hunters – I picked up more oppies at 1.7c yesterday – they look set to bounce hard & fast from here.

There are some great articles out on Mining Weekly today which have a lot of relevance to CCC: http://www.miningweekly.com/page/africa
Especially the one on the TKR starting construction next year, along with other African coal rail infrastructure developments.

Great close to the trading today at 4.2c on very strong volume - let's see if tomorrow & Friday can give us a bullish reversal confirmation candle or two.

http://www.conticoalers.com

Click to expand...

Excellent feedback through your research . I do mean it even if I have sold CCC. With June ending I needed to divert the fund some where else without seeing any good result.
But nevertheless your observations and research on CCC are good pieces of inforamtion and thanks for that

I however could not stop laughing on your observations that the Editor with a Dr is a VET. Probably to handle Bulls and Bears we do need a VET
I do share with your finding on his annualised returns which I do believe presented by D & D in a wrong way. Ironically I never got any reply from the VET doctor and trying to match 2+2 reading your notes - why.

I may back to CCC again but will wait for July now

Many people on HotCCCopper & elsewhere keep throwing up incorrect MC figures, so here it is, with some notes:

Current undiluted MC = 3.8c x 3.1B shares = $118m
Options listed & unlisted = 930m (120m expire October 2011 at 15c/20c - unlikely to be exercised) for all strike prices/dates: see page 9 of "Notice of GM" http://www.conticoal.com/fileadmin/...o_Fund_Penumbra_Mine_Development_02.06.11.pdf

ABSA Project Funding announced - $35m for Penumbra
Existing EDF loan payed back via ABSA ($15m - minus amt already paid back in Ferr. coal)
Working capital facility ABSA = $15m
VanMag proceeds = $10m
Cash at hand = $5m (this is just a guess!)

post BEE settlement August:
Cash from BEE2 = $20m
Debt to CCC from BEE2 = $10m

Annual Free Cashflow (not including BEE2 26% share, post settlement August)

approx 500ktpa * $40 on current margins @ Ferreira = $20m x 64% = $12.8m

1.2mtpa * $7pt on current margins @ VlkVk = $8.4m (100% to CCC as BEE partner not yet earning in)

= free cash p.a. approx $20m (include Ferr. domestic coal). Ferr mine life = approx 2 years

At the GM yesterday it was reported that CCC have just achieved record quarterly export railings to RBCT & record quarterly production at both operating mines. So cashflows should be increasing.

Resources statement here: http://conticoalers.com/2011/06/15/continental-coal-resources-reserves-jorc-update/

Total SA Resources @ 565mt. Next project Penumbra: resources just announced increase of almost 300%

This from recent Madison Williams report on CCC:

Recent M&A transaction confirm implied valuation. Recent M&A transactions highlight the value of Continental’s asset base. On May 4, 2011 Optimum Coal announced a deal to pay ZAR 420 ($US60m) million in cash for Umcebo Mining’s two prospecting rights containing an in-situ coal resource of about 120 Mt of thermal coal. At the implied resource value of US$0.52/t, we calculate a resource-based per share value of CCC shares at A$0.08. As Continental unlocks the value of its extensive resource base and ramps up EBITDA, we would expect the share price to more clearly reflect the underlying value of the company’s assets.

+ potential 2.7Bt shallow resource coal at Botswana*** - drilling to start next month

+ Kenya*** (possible 300mt resource for an outlay of approx $3m - CCC execs confident of being granted rights to one of the 4 coal blocks on offer)

+ potential JV with Eskom on a new project (Eskom to fund all development costs) with Eskom to pay CCC on a cost + basis for domestic coal - as announced at GM yesterday

*** these are/will be held alone by CCC, and BEE partners have no rights over these assets/potential assets

Some more notes from yesterday's GM at UWA (where all 8 formal resolutions were passed by shareholders, including 10:1 consolidation & approval of BEE transaction):

- Late July AIM listing - no share issue on listing
- Increased export railings over last quarter, despite the RB line being closed for maintenance for 20 days
- Only 3% of CCC's total resources being utilized at current operating projects
- Will be releasing quarterly cash flow reports in future
- Op costs for next 2 projects ~ $65pt USD FOB (including the recent 30% increase in rail costs)
- EDF loan (~$14m being paid back via ABSA loan - some already paid back in coal) - still available for CCC to use for future projects, if necessary. ABSA loan has no attaching options/equity etc (non-dilutionary) - gives 3rd party validation
- Eskom looking for broader LT relationships/partnerships in SA - where Eskom will JV & fund all capital costs, if they can secure LT supplies, on a cost + basis. Essential for "social license" & access to rail/port allocations. Looking at developing a new domestic mine with Eskom JV (not on current portfolio).
- Have all necessary permits to start Penumbra, have contractors on site already. Expect to start very soon.
- 95% of BFS at DeWitt finished, including wash plant study. Over July the BFS results will be released.
- Botswana is a strategic asset - will be a while before it's commercially developed owing to lack of infrastructure.
- JB very enthusiastic about Kenya was there two weeks ago, met with almost all govt ministers - confident CCC will get one of the coal blocks, and have good relations with Kenyan govt.
- Rail/Port allocations: still waiting for increased Quattro allocations (they were due 1/4/2011 - a lot of politicking involved). All export coal produced in SA is being sent out (not stockpiled) - just a matter of how it gets out, via own allocations or by using another party's. Opportunities to use Mozambique ports (will be done for Vlakplaats). CCC very confident that rail/port allocations will be available, esp. given its strategic alliance with Eskom to make sure at least 50% of CCC's coal is for domestic market. New BEE partner will raise the company's credibility & increase ease of access to infrastructure. Transnet are spending a lot of $$ to make sure RBCT can raise capacity to 80mt in next 2 years.
- Nationalization issue discussed: SA is an inherently difficult place to do business. CCC has good relations with ANC. Malema has the support of a large proportion of black population who have missed out on the promised benefits of BEE legislation, which has only benefitted a very small elite of blacks. PL says SA mine nationalization will not happen - not workable. Oil & gas is much easier to nationalize, ala Venezuela. Nationalization issue is a mainly means to achieve political goals. But as long as this is a live issue, SA will struggle to attract o/s investment capital. Coal is one of the most secure sectors, given its strategic importance to SA's energy security & value to national growth prospects. There has been a sea change in last few weeks, with many leading figures arguing strongly against nationalization.
- James Leahy's appointment is a big coup for CCC - he has a brilliant reputation in UK & Europe. Was been approached by 30 different resource companies to join their boards, after leaving Mirabaud - Conti was his first choice. James decided to take options rather than a big salary package as he can see the LT value in CCC.
- New BEE (BEE2) group have a massive balance sheet. Received a dividend from parent company of ~$US60m last year. One of the few Community Development Trust Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) groups that serves the true role of the BEE legislation to benefit local/community groups. BEE2 will fund their 26% share of development costs. BEE2 requested their name not be released until deal with CCC is completed.

- PL & JB both reinforced the message that world class companies like EDF, KORES, ABSA/Barclays & BEE2 have all done enormous, and painstaking DD on CCC, and analysed CCC inside out. You don't get these groups signing deals with CCC if it's a dud!

Won't dispute that it has the goods.



but someone does not think so and they are SELLING.

perhaps they have finished.

Thanks Jeff. Let's hope so. It's interesting to note that the majority of CCC's volume is generated by one or two nominee accounts who are churning the stock - ie. buying & selling almost equal amounts each day, in order to make 0.1c gains. Not sure how on earth they can make any money doing this. Conspiracy theorists might presume that they are being employed by a "higher power" to suppress the SP. Also worth noting that the SP has been falling on lower volumes than when it went up - which suggests there are still a lot of people holding on, waiting for the turn/recovery.

Any chance you could offer an analysis of the candles & other TA indicators? I'm still very much a novice on the TA side of things.

Cheers

vimuttirasa said:

Annual Free Cashflow (not including BEE2 26% share, post settlement August)

approx 500ktpa * $40 on current margins @ Ferreira = $20m x 64% = $12.8m

1.2mtpa * $7pt on current margins @ VlkVk = $8.4m (100% to CCC as BEE partner not yet earning in)

= free cash p.a. approx $20m (include Ferr. domestic coal). Ferr mine life = approx 2 years

Click to expand...

A very rough NPV according to this info
discounted using a rate of 15%
$20m for the next 2yrs, and $8.4m increasing at 10%pa for the following 7yrs (I like the number 7)

will give $62m NPV

divide by 3.1billion shares
equal to roughly 2cents/share

Feel free to correct me, I'm still learning

The selling pressure has abated, good announcement just before the EGM today. Profit here I come?

Good to see they are going ahead with the consolidation. Personally i would have preferred to have seen a 20:1 instead of a 10:1

so glad i averaged down at .029

i didnt think the ann was anything people didnt know about but happy for some positive sentiment finally.

Well done with your averaging down.
Did you get out?

With the huge volume today and the 28% 1 day gain - expect this to hit newswires and maybe a short piece in some of tommorrows newspapers.

Then we might see some more buying tmw int the 4 - 4.5 range.

With the ammon of consolidation we may see it creep back towards 9 cents by september then it will automatically become a 90 c stock and start getting on more radars and head up further as the year progresses.

IMO a great media release today on ASX for the TRIPLE C's!!

notting said:

Well done with your averaging down.
Did you get out?

Click to expand...

not yet, my avg is .04 so i'll wait it out a bit longer I think. See how she goes, im not in a massive rush to sell. I'll be happy if it can get back to .05 area

A week ago i bought a couple of million of these.

Friday they just went 10:1 consolidation and next month they list on the uk markets.

Hel up okay on friay after consol at 29.5c.

Imo they may have reached thier bottom and are ready to move up now towards 50c maybe in sep/ oct.

With consol i have 200k of them just to clrify.


Hope this one goes off - any thoughts?

LRG said:

A week ago i bought a couple of million of these.

Friday they just went 10:1 consolidation and next month they list on the uk markets.

Hel up okay on friay after consol at 29.5c.

Imo they may have reached thier bottom and are ready to move up now towards 50c maybe in sep/ oct.

With consol i have 200k of them just to clrify.


Hope this one goes off - any thoughts?

Click to expand...

Perhaps you may articulate and share the thinking behind such hope?

Prelim report out and i'm not really impressed i must say...

50m cashflow from sales with cost of sales alone being 47m including 12m of "bought in coal". Im hoping this is just a once of due to the mines ramping up to full capacity.

They do seem to have taken onboard a lot of debt from a lot of providers so lets see if they actually do know what they are doing and can leverage into coal demand instead of blowing up.

Personally i would like to see them stop expanding and focus on getting the co profitable now...

Another share consolidation gone bad.

consolidated at 36c, 16c this week.

now on its way back up, preopen indicates 23c open today.

Been watching this one for a while, glad i didn't buy in ages ago, but kinda wish i hadn't cancelled my order at 17c.

Trigger finger is sensitive these days.