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CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

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sinner said:
US malls have been reported as drying up all over the country. I can probably dig up a link if you like.
Click to expand...
I'd be interested in such a link(s).

With regard to Centro the balance of media opinion is that the banks will give it a stay of execution.
 
Hi drsmith,

This is just one example I found quickly before bed, you can go to news.google.com, I searched "commercial real estate malls" for a crapload of very fresh results with similar stories.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122929964304905239.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Commercial real estate is yet to burst in the US, but in my opinion it is unavoidable. Wow we are getting off topic.


from http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN1933428520081119

With regard to Centro the balance of media opinion is that the banks will give it a stay of execution.
Click to expand...

Not sure if you read the last link I posted, CBA seems to be determined to pull the trigger despite everyone else wanting to provide clemency.
 
Thanks for the links.

Quickly reading a couple of news articles this morning it appears that Centro is trying to swap some debt for equity and CBA is trying to negotiate itself into a better position relative to the other banks. According to the SMH discussions with banks were being held late last night in New York to get all the financiers to approve the rescue package.
 
I hold CER and am very interested in outcome of these negotiations. I find it difficult to believe that after such a long period (nigh 12 months) that CBA or any banker is holding out to the last minute... very difficult to believe. Moreover, if indeed that is how it really is (ie CBA is not yet comfortable) then the directors of CNP et al need to look long and hard at the issue of solvency... do they have adequate working capital to fund a logical / ordely liquidation... I doubt it.

Alan Kohler in an article yesterday made the observation that the CBA is walking a fine line... enjoying Federal government guarantees but potentially instigating (or maybe facilitating???... pick a word) a significant investment failure and consequential commercial property and retail malaise... Telstra got in the government's face yesterday and I think the government mentioned in no uncertain terms that it was not a good idea... CBA ought to be (and I suspect are) mindful.

Lastly, I have difficulty with banks of CBA's ilk taking equity positions ... it is a banker...if it was MacBank, I fully understand. If indeed CBA takes the equity (whatever form) then in my view it has compromised it's charter...

Whatever... I hold CER and not CBA...

Do your own research etc etc

Good luck today
 
I don't have a problem with CBA or any other commercial bank taking an equity position in an equity for debt deal. There have been plenty of these in the past and they are preferable to the alternative which is normally mortgagee sale, receivership or liquidation of the borrower.
I wouldn't think that a bank would want to be a longterm shareholder in most instances and the deal would be regarded as a temporary arrangment with a view to on-selling the equity in due course.

Disc: Holding a few CNP; no CBA but a couple of other banks.
 
I don't think retail is going to get better any time soon, so CNP's business is not going to improve. If CBA want to pull the trigger now, accept the writedowns and move on it might be better in the long run. If its cactus and everyone know's its cactus then there's not much point keeping it hanging on in some kind of corporate denial.

Currently it seems CNP have the revenue to cover interest on the debt, but with an ongoing decline in retail, how likely is this to continue? They might get a better price for their assets in a liquidation if they are still showing some reasonable yield.

I don't really see any good news in this for CBA either way, but its possible the recent selldown of CBA has already priced a lot of CNP related negativity into the price anyway.
 
As mentioned, I am new to shares. I did my first trading last month with CBA and got a 15% profit. Have read some bad news about CBA but don't know why I still bought CBA last week. Maybe because it gave me my first profit and emotionally I am inclined to it. This shows how amatuer I am Really hope to get out asap without a loss, not to mention any profit.
 


The market is always difficult to predict. Sometimes it will rally on bad news, fall on good news, drift sideways on horrible news, plummet or soar on mild news etc. It often depends on how widely a pending announcement has been known about and to what level a particular outcome has been priced in.

Nobody can know for certain one way or another how the CBA share price will perform over the short term (or the long term for that matter.)

Which is why you need to have your own trading plan, your own reasons for entry, your own criteria for exits, and your own money management regime that matches your appetite for risk.
 

Firstly - don't believe everything you read in the newspaper - until its been announced to the ASX I would still treat it as hearsay (thats my take).

But if this news is announced, it may be good for the economy, it may be good for CBA, but that doesn't necessarily mean the share price will rise. On the other hand it may be bad for the economy and/or bad for CBA - that doesn't necessarily mean the share price will fall.

Trying to apply this sort of basic logic to short term price movements tends not to work - more often than not the market will do the opposite of what 'logic' would dictate - nobody knows for sure what will happen.

And thats enough from me on the topic, I'm no expert either.
 
Yes, one would expect this to be good news for all concerned when (if) it's confirmed but as cuttlefish says, the market will not necessarily boost CBA's SP as a consequence. That depends largely to what degree this news has been anticipated and already built into the SP - and we have no idea of that!

 
Honey85... I don't think you are going to have a good day.

Old Blue... that is why banks (sheltered by the infamous four pillars policy under which they develop egos and ambitions way beyond there abilitys) should not take equity positions in stressed companies. They are credit risk assessors and managers... not equity traders or capital providers... they just don't have those skills. It seems today they cannot even value their own equity... hmmmm!

For the rest of us... compliments of the CBA (who have just discovered that bad debts might be an issue during this difficult financial crisis) I suspect we'll all take a hit on the all ords...bugger. My greatest concern is that this public display of incompetence just spills everywhere...bugger bugger bugger

Don't mind me

DYOR
 
I suppose the CEO can still take his $10m bonus for steering the ship in a straight line.

Don't need to make any blunders in this environment.

Of course, he's worth the $10m to get that caliber of talent.



 
kennas said:
I suppose the CEO can still take his $10m bonus for steering the ship in a straight line.

Don't need to make any blunders in this environment.

Of course, he's worth the $10m to get that caliber of talent.



Click to expand...

Nice job if you can get it

Where do i sign up? Or arn't i in the boys club cause i didnt go to private school?
 
When I woke up, I thought CBA will have at least a decent day from DJ and Centro and the capital raising. At 9.45 the news of the blunder came out, I was like... what the ****? But these uncertainties are what makes the market interesting, isn't it?
 
cuttlefish said:
Firstly - don't believe everything you read in the newspaper - until its been announced to the ASX I would still treat it as hearsay (thats my take).
Click to expand...


Well it looks like even if it has been announced to the ASX it isn't necessarily so (i.e. I'm referring to the announcement last night regarding the cap raising, not the CNP stuff this comment was originally directed about).

Gee the market seems like a minefield at the moment, and it doesn't seem like any of the banks are winning any friends at the moment between the various debacles going on (or that have gone on) this year.
 
honey85 said:
When I woke up, I thought CBA will have at least a decent day from DJ and Centro and the capital raising. At 9.45 the news of the blunder came out, I was like... what the ****? But these uncertainties are what makes the market interesting, isn't it?
Click to expand...

hehe its called a true Bear Market

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 344.4 320.2 334.5 388.7
DPS 266.0 266.0 266.0 285.0




Thx

MS
 
Oh dear.

CBA's NetBank Login & Home Pages won't load. Must be a few CBA server hits going on..

Clowns.
 
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