CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[Sunder]

Wow, can't believe it was a month ago since one of the top 5 shares on the ASX was discussed.

Anyone know why it dropped 3% this morning before recovering? Some announcement about the Bankwest acquisition maybe?

 

[drsmith]

Possibly on media reports that ABC learning is about to go from intensive care into the hands of the corporate undertakers.

CBA is a $500m creditor.

 

[cuttlefish]

People might also be questioning why they didn't pass on the full 75 bp RBA rate cut but only 58 basis points instead - kind if implies things are a bit tight doesn't it? WBC only passed on 65 bp as well.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-slices-rate-065-20081105-5i7x.html

 

[TheAbyss]

Sky business channel commentator on your money your call last night stated that CBA was "very smelly". Can't recall the exact wording however my interpretation was as follows,

Suncorp deposits were/ are in jeopardy hence the government guarantee on bank deposits being introduced and that if that guarantee gets lifted he wouldnt be surprised to see Suncorp share price hit $3.00. He then went on to say that CBA is also "very smelly" on the same lines. That was his reasoning as to why no one can make an offer for Suncorp as they are in dire straits so a value cannot be put to them.

Any truth to this? Only insiders would know however i wondered at the time what impact those comments would have on Sun and CBA today.

How to gauge the effect of these comments? Interesting to say the least and do they have to substantiate given theior positions as brokers or do they get to slate a stock and buy low?

 

[awg]

People might also be questioning why they didn't pass on the full 75 bp RBA rate cut but only 58 basis points instead - kind if implies things are a bit tight doesn't it? WBC only passed on 65 bp as well.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-slices-rate-065-20081105-5i7x.html

Possibly on media reports that ABC learning is about to go from intensive care into the hands of the corporate undertakers.

CBA is a $500m creditor.

try multiqoute again, hope it works

my opinion, reason they are not passing on full interest rate cut is cause of OS funding is rising due to our lowly dollar. approx 30% is sourced OS

As i stated on the ABS thread, that company is rooted, I looked at it ages ago and couldnt beleive anyone would invest.

I doubt they would be cost flow positive, even if you ignored the interest bill completely.

CBA will take a complete loss, the govt wont let them close the doors, or no mummies can go to work!

 

[johnnyg]

Interesting Chart for CBA. Has formed a nice trading range within a Rectangle for the past 10 months. May have the potential for a big move either way depending which way it breaks. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

 

[Julia]

Wow, can't believe it was a month ago since one of the top 5 shares on the ASX was discussed.

Anyone know why it dropped 3% this morning before recovering? Some announcement about the Bankwest acquisition maybe?

Possibly on media reports that ABC learning is about to go from intensive care into the hands of the corporate undertakers.

CBA is a $500m creditor.

I offered another reason for the drop in my post this morning. This was deleted because I wrote words which were not meaningful in order to fill the 100 character rule. So I am now trying again to offer the information given earlier, i.e. that CBA also have significant exposure to AFG which is following the ABS path. Hope this helps.

 

[joeyr46]

Interesting Chart for CBA. Has formed a nice trading range within a Rectangle for the past 10 months. May have the potential for a big move either way depending which way it breaks. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

The longer term chart 16yrs or so is more interesting as a log chart as it shows CBA has broken trend and is consolidating just under the trend line and of course today it broke down from the rectangle it had formed in your chart on good volume time will tell but it does not look bullish at all

 

[STYLSH]

thanks for the analyst Maybe it'll be heading north today with the small rally they are having in the states. Hope i didnt jump in too early like i always do.

 

[Moneybags]

Awesome stuff Nick........as always . Some pretty disturbing targets there but thankfully I do not hold ATM.......will be watching with interest.

Do you see a similar bearish senario for other Banks also??

Cheers

MB

 

[bloomy88]

Wow thanks Nick, that is some very in depth analsis. I will be watching CBA very closely for the rest of the week, especially after the 6.29% fall ($2.39) today. I think if CBA hits $30 i will be buying, the only worry is their $600+ million exposure to ABC and $200million exposure to Allco.

Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Thanks again Nick

 

[cuttlefish]

I think if CBA hits $30 i will be buying.

That would be brave imo. From an economic perspective I can't see anything to indicate the pain isn't far from over for the banks and in fact it might only just be starting.

 

[Moneybags]

Do you see a similar bearish senario for other Banks also??

Cheers

MB

Hmmmm, judging by todays performance of Banks it could well be the case......NAB have really started the ball rolling here with cap raising.

MB

 

[Sean K]

CBA yielding 10% on a pe of 8 ish.

Anyone else thinking it's approaching oversold - long term opportunity?

 

[STYLSH]

Wow, lucky i got out a few days ago. It doesn't look like a fakeout. Maybe the $15 scenario is coming?!

 

[dhukka]

CBA yielding 10% on a pe of 8 ish.

Anyone else thinking it's approaching oversold - long term opportunity?

I have the FY09 forecast yield at around 8.6% according to comsec consensus estimates (assuming a price of $31) but I'd be careful about the yield, CBA announced what amounted to a profit warning last week in their September quarter trading update. Short term it looks oversold, especially when it dipped below $30 earlier this morning.

 

[gfresh]

The CBA will be downbeat until that huge white elephant in the room - Centro Properties is resolved. Looking at the price of CNP and CER, any hope for them seems to be fading fast.

If Centro fails it will be Australia's largest corporate collapse, and CBA is exposed. The expiry of the funding deadline is December 15th, which is looming ever closer.

Under that scenario, a target of $15 (or at least much lower than current prices) couldn't be ruled out.

 

[Bushman]

The CBA will be downbeat until that huge white elephant in the room - Centro Properties is resolved. Looking at the price of CNP and CER, any hope for them seems to be fading fast.

If Centro fails it will be Australia's largest corporate collapse. The expiry of the funding deadline is December 15th, which is looming ever closer.

Under that scenario, a target of $15 probably couldn't be ruled out at all.

Keep an eye out for what discount to book value Centro are accepting for asset sales in CAWF/CSIF etc. CBA & Co controls this process now. If it starts heading to the 'firesale' territory (say 15% plus), then you know that CBA and co are 'losing faith' in trying to trade out of the mess Centro are in.

 

[cuttlefish]

Wouldn't go near it long term. Short term it seemed logical that it might hit some resistence to its downward plummet around the $30 mark so it might pause here for a while and consolidate for a bit before any further moves down.

 

[oldblue]

What is ( best guess ) CBA's exposure to CNP group?

How much was ( theoretically) covered by first ranking security?