CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

josjes · 17 January 2008

What's going on with CBA ? It's been on a down trend without a pause since last week (probably 8 days in a row). Compared with the other 3 big banks it has underperformed substantially. They all made a bounce in the last 2 days, but CBA is just refusing to join them. I am thinking CBA was the most overvalued of the 4 is that why it's been harshly dealt with ? Or perhaps the market figures out that it has got more skeleton in the closet by the Centro fiasco ?? Anyone knows the story behind ?

The Mint Man · 17 January 2008

Who knows mate, in a market like this.
Look at MQG, perfectly good company that has even said that they have hardly, if any, exposure to the US credit crisis but has that saved them, No! If your in for the longer term probably best to ride it out, good companies like this don't stay down forever and will in all likelyhood come back strong once the market/s get this period out of the system.

Cheers

ROE · 18 January 2008

I'm skeptical with Aussies banks at a moment because they are too clean with sub-prime .... there maybe be some sub-prime hidden some where in deep dark corner of their book that no one uncover it yet .

Every other bank got hit except aussie banks

josjes · 30 January 2008

All three other banks are green and up 1-1.5%. Except CBA again down 1.5%. If anyone knows about rumours in the market , I guess they have some skeleton in closet with sub-prime write-down ?

ShareIt · 31 January 2008

josjes said:
All three other banks are green and up 1-1.5%. Except CBA again down 1.5%. If anyone knows about rumours in the market , I guess they have some skeleton in closet with sub-prime write-down ?

Not sure, but my indicators are showing a possible reversal.... spinning top, positive divergence on the macd... could see an up day tomorrow

kerosam · 31 January 2008

Hi shareit,

thanks for your thoughts.

I looked at the daily & weekly chart (see attached) and still find trending down. Daily chart support was 48.70 but breached today (though she closed higher than 48.70)... weekly chart shows next support could be 46.82... & a possible bounce off that 46.82.

Awesomandy · 31 January 2008

Just a general reminder... be very careful if you are trying to catch a faling knife.

Although, fundamentally, I really can't see any major changes as of recent times to suggest why CBA should underperform so much when compared to its peers. I think some value is starting to appear.

Bill M · 31 January 2008

I just thought I'd add a comment about CBA. I bought CBA in 1996 for $10.40 a share. In all those years they have paid me handsome dividends and I have never sold. Today as you people know they are $49.40 per share.

Well that is very nice dividends for 12 years and my share price has gone up 460%.

The only thing I can say is that at these prices CBA is a good deal. I've seen many corrections and the Asian crisis since I bought them and they still keep producing bigger and and better than ever.

At today's lows of around $47 odd I nearly bought in again but then it bounced upwards and closed up in the green. I buy when it is ridiculously low.

As a long term investment CBA is one of the best companies on the ASX. Don't worry about short term charts and falling knifes CBA will always give you your dividends and perform in the long run. My personal opinion only but the facts are there just check the prices I bought on 27/05/1996. I will NEVER sell them, good luck.

ShareIt · 1 February 2008

kerosam said:
Hi shareit,

thanks for your thoughts.

I looked at the daily & weekly chart (see attached) and still find trending down. Daily chart support was 48.70 but breached today (though she closed higher than 48.70)... weekly chart shows next support could be 46.82... & a possible bounce off that 46.82.

Well what do you know... CBA opened 2.5% up.... guess the indicators proved right Overall, the trend is still down, but I look to make trades off 2days holding.

kengaikl · 2 February 2008

Bill M said:
I just thought I'd add a comment about CBA. I bought CBA in 1996 for $10.40 a share. In all those years they have paid me handsome dividends and I have never sold. Today as you people know they are $49.40 per share.

Well that is very nice dividends for 12 years and my share price has gone up 460%.

The only thing I can say is that at these prices CBA is a good deal. I've seen many corrections and the Asian crisis since I bought them and they still keep producing bigger and and better than ever.

At today's lows of around $47 odd I nearly bought in again but then it bounced upwards and closed up in the green. I buy when it is ridiculously low.

As a long term investment CBA is one of the best companies on the ASX. Don't worry about short term charts and falling knifes CBA will always give you your dividends and perform in the long run. My personal opinion only but the facts are there just check the prices I bought on 27/05/1996. I will NEVER sell them, good luck.

Your the only person that make any sense in this forum. Everyone has such a short term view of things. People like you are the ones who make serious money on the share market not those who just look at trand lines or what ever. If all investors were like you there wouldnt be all this market turmoil. Fear creates fear right??

Bill M · 3 February 2008

kengaikl said:
Your the only person that make any sense in this forum. Everyone has such a short term view of things. People like you are the ones who make serious money on the share market not those who just look at trand lines or what ever. If all investors were like you there wouldnt be all this market turmoil. Fear creates fear right??

Thank you for your kind words kengaikl. I just thought I would further add that when I bought the original parcel the fully franked dividends were about 6%. Over the years the dividends went up every year. In the last 12 Months the CBA dividend was $2.56 per share, that is a fully franked dividend of 24.2% on the original outlay. To me that's what sharemarket investing is all about building wealth by buying great companies, cheers.

nitpra · 3 February 2008

Past is past. At the moment there seems to be some fear about cba. One broker has mentioned cba will write off some bad load (dont know how much )
when report in few weeks time. In the current environment anything regarding subprime there is a fear. For short trading (2-3 days ) it looks ok but again dont get caught, the announcement may appear any time.

vishalt · 3 February 2008

CBA reports in 2 weeks so we will see.

Who is the mysterious broker who said that? I've been also suspecting that our banks have been having it too good that there was something fishy happening.

Anyway if CBA does get crushed its a bargain, massive dividend + it really is blowing away the competition posed by the other four majors.

nitpra · 3 February 2008

Deutsche Bank:The broker is retaining Hold only because the stock has fallen 18%. This is still a 10% premium to peers and that's a worry. Funding costs and lower wealth management returns are a problem, and increasing bad loans loom as a significant issue. target falls from $54.00 to $51.50. -

vishalt · 3 February 2008

What increasing bad loans? Where did Deutsche get that from? Maybe they are just jealous because their own stock got hammered from 120E to 70E or something.

The Mint Man · 6 February 2008

hey guys,
May be a silly question (had a few) but I was just on the CBA site, http://www.commbank.com.au/, and something caught my eye.
In is its page 'tab' (for you tech heads, also known as the 'global metre' I believe) it says 'Commonwealth Bank Group'.
Is this something new or have they always refered to themself as this??? Sounds very Macquarie-esq to me!!!
They will probably even change their stock code to CBG soon too:

Anyone care to comment?

Cheers

EDIT: dont hold, just curious.

Bill M · 13 February 2008

Bill M said:
I just thought I'd add a comment about CBA. I bought CBA in 1996 for $10.40 a share. In all those years they have paid me handsome dividends and I have never sold. Today as you people know they are $49.40 per share.

Well that is very nice dividends for 12 years and my share price has gone up 460%.

The only thing I can say is that at these prices CBA is a good deal. I've seen many corrections and the Asian crisis since I bought them and they still keep producing bigger and and better than ever.

At today's lows of around $47 odd I nearly bought in again but then it bounced upwards and closed up in the green. I buy when it is ridiculously low.

As a long term investment CBA is one of the best companies on the ASX. Don't worry about short term charts and falling knifes CBA will always give you your dividends and perform in the long run. My personal opinion only but the facts are there just check the prices I bought on 27/05/1996. I will NEVER sell them, good luck.

Well CBA reported today, increased profits and dividends and at todays prices with dividends to come I bought some more.

nomore4s · 13 February 2008

Bill M said:
Well CBA reported today, increased profits and dividends and at todays prices with dividends to come I bought some more.

Will I'm no fundie, I'm a bit surprised at the markets reaction to todays results. Okay results I would've thought considering the current sp weakness and whats been happening to the banks overseas.

I do note though, todays vol is already high for the first hour of trading - nearly as much vol as yesterday already. So while there appears to be sellers around there is also someone willing to buy, will be interesting to see where the close is.

May purchase some more for my long term portfolio as well.

dhukka · 13 February 2008

Obviously the Banking sector is weighing on the market today, CBA's result being a big part of it. They managed to squeeze out eps growth on a fully diluted cash basis of just 3%. Obviously the market was hoping for better.

As expected provisions are on the rise, as shown below, however nowhere near the levels of US banks.

Frank D said:
While you guys are sitting on your hands, i'm back into banking stocks this week, bought ANZ , WBC, and picked up CBA @ 51.70 today....

Maybe sitting on your hands wasn't a bad strategy afterall Frank?

numbercruncher · 13 February 2008

I think that was a pretty tame response to a crap result, wait till the masses start defaulting on mortgages and business loans, then itll get Interesting.

Its a funny old world when you earn alot more in deposit with the bank than as a shareholder, and risk free

CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

josjes

The Mint Man

ROE

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kerosam

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Awesomandy

Bill M

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nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

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