CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Muschu said:

As a long term holder I am certainly not about to desert CBA.. I might not like "banks" but the returns, as a retiree, have been helpful.

I am troubled by people who appear to almost "want" doom and gloom... And who appear not to understand what this may bring to so many good people...

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I think there is a big difference between "wanting" doom and gloom and "expecting" doom and gloom. I can only speak for myself but I'm certainly in the latter category.

rryall said:

I think there is a big difference between "wanting" doom and gloom and "expecting" doom and gloom. I can only speak for myself but I'm certainly in the latter category.

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Good point.
For me I'm always wanting the best for all, however sometimes I see things very differently and want to help others see that when I'm confident about it.

Can't believe the size of NABs capital raising announced today.
They are traitors diluting their share holders at the worst time.
They were the first to raise during the GFC.
Only ANZ waited patiently and raised in a better environment than all the others, none of them needed to raise during the GFC, they should have stuck to their guns take a downgraded rating and done buy backs! If the agencies are that stupid and watch em crank the grade up again 6 months later.
CBA did a cracker deal with that WA bank they bought during the GFC so their raising was OK cause they bought something cheap with it!!!!!!! Incredible business.

rryall said:

I think there is a big difference between "wanting" doom and gloom and "expecting" doom and gloom. I can only speak for myself but I'm certainly in the latter category.

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Yes I agree.... Although I don't wish to "expect" gloom either... Let's see what happens.

CBA has an interesting structure here. From the Top it declined in five waves, then rebounded in five and in the last days also declined in five. So Three fives on a chart. Interestingly, each "five" corrected almost 50% of the previous wave.
This juncture basically can resolve itself under only one scenario- before CBA tanks below $79, it first climbs above $87. Blue line presents possible scenario how this could unfold. I am keen to enter this trade as the smell of easy money is going out from this chart.

Most likely enter point could be at $82, but this I will determine as waves unfold to this point and depending on structure here the low risk entry point will be seen(I expect so).

All Ords also supports the case of the rebound as I discussed the case here today https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=873730&viewfull=1#post873730

Triathlete said:

Based on my monthly chart price table $66.50 comes out as a possible worst case scenario at this stage.

Personally I would be very surprised if it did get to here but would certainly give everyone a good buying opportunity.

It is a must to hold $82.65 here otherwise it will move lower to the other levels based on my price analysis and worst case $66.50.

Interesting times!!!.

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Is CBA about to go lower???

Currently on a EW 4 by my calculation so at this stage I would expect the stock to continue lower....I am still keeping my eye on $66.50 at this stage..

What are peoples view after todays price drop??

Just updated my weekly CBA chart and now expecting the stock to find support at $72.50 before turning and moving higher.

This is not financial advice and for educational purpose only.

Hi Triathlete,

In regards to your anticipated W4, please take a look at this comparison chart and answer those questions:




1)Does the rise from 2011 bottom really looks like W3, in all other instruments? Does it has this "feel" of W3-strong, fast and relentless?

2) How would W4 and then W5 would look in all other instruments, who has overlaps and are below 2007 high?

3)Does fundamentals support the case that from 2011 economy hit the strongest note?

4) What is the best feeling when looking at those charts from 2009, is it a three wave correction, or soon to be five wave advance, in all of them together?

rimtas said:

Hi Triathlete,

In regards to your anticipated W4, please take a look at this comparison chart and answer those questions:

View attachment 64257


1)Does the rise from 2011 bottom really looks like W3, in all other instruments? Does it has this "feel" of W3-strong, fast and relentless?

2) How would W4 and then W5 would look in all other instruments, who has overlaps and are below 2007 high?

3)Does fundamentals support the case that from 2011 economy hit the strongest note?

4) What is the best feeling when looking at those charts from 2009, is it a three wave correction, or soon to be five wave advance, in all of them together?

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Hi Rimtas,
Looking at your comparison charts and the marked overlaps it is starting to look like we are in an ABC correction phase.

The only one that looked like a W3 on your chart was CBA.

I myself am waiting to see whether or not the All Ords can stay above 5069 as I use the closing price on the monthly chart and as yet it has. If it closes below here then I would say we are in a wave C and going lower.

I only use EW as a wave progression tool and whether the percentage levels are met or not.

So for example:

A wave 3 usually rises 162% to 262 % of W1 and a minimum 100%.

If we look at the All Ords it rose 100% and CBA rose 162% up till April 2015 from there W2 lows before they turned down and have been waiting since to see what is going to happen.

This is when I got out of the market.

How W4 and W5 for other instruments will depend now on what happens in the market and whether we go into a C wave down if we close below 5069.

Then my view will change and go with ABC long term correction from 2007.

Triathlete said:

Hi Rimtas,

The only one that looked like a W3 on your chart was CBA.

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You are absolutely correct Triathlete...CBA chart shows a wave-3 still at this point. This may change of course but only when the smaller degree patterns change.

Showing several other hand picked charts in correction mode means nothing. If we all did that then we would assume every chart was corrective. Do not fall into that trap. Every chart should be labelled without outside influences.

Porper said:

Every chart should be labelled without outside influences.

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Not so much if you have the main index showing a different count.
I shows that stock is going to have to go against the rest of the market.

PennD said:

Not so much if you have the main index showing a different count.
I shows that stock is going to have to go against the rest of the market.

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Plenty of stocks buck the trend of the broader market, that's my point.

CBA is one of those that has outperformed. If you'd been expecting it to hit the wave equality projection and retrace you'd have closed positions around $77.84 and lost a lot of potential profit. This latest leg higher has been 1.618x the length of the first leg. More indicative of Wave-3...not Wave-C. That's not to say the wave count is set in stone as it never is.

Don't listen to Porper, he is useless. He lives in an Elliot style fitted house, drinks from Elliot cup that he bought at the auction for 2000 bucks, and smokes cigars named "Elliot".

Penn D pointed out correct-one stock, especially blue chip and major index constituent, won't buck the All Ords trend, it will make it. If you want to know where the market is going you must see the bigger picture, that is derived from all major stocks and see how your projected scenarios fit within those structures.

CBA, and the market overall, from here has only Three scenarios that could unfold. Others are more complex, and from the centuries of data I can say that in the largest degrees market uses simplest forms of corrections, so expecting some wxy would be stupid.



1) Large Running Triangle, lasting another 5-6 years or so. Many other smaller banks that are below ATH don't support this scenario very well, but if this Three wave sideways movement continues, they will sport nice EW structures, like double threes.

2) Series one's and Two's. Maybe this 5mo correction is a bit small in time and larger sideways corrective pattern emerges til mid 2016, but Shanghai and Sensex structures are pointing out that it is over and market is ready to rock'n roll. All world indexes (especialy Asian)and many stocks would fit into this scenario very well.

3)Expandet 3-3-5 Flat - Simplest of them all-Wave c, five wave affair, crash to new lows, somewhere to 2700(in XAO) where larger degree trend channel support sits. Will be quick and must end til mid 2016. Basically the last biggest market opportunity provided to those who are born after 1970's. The rest and older, who bought today, simply won't have enough time to recover and see substantial gains in their lifetimes if do not add to their positions in the face of collapsing world around them.

Thankfully we can use CBA chart as the last one or don't even bother to look at it at all as there are plenty of other stocks and indices which can point out early which scenario is unfolding-best, middle or worst. But I would say that if last's months lows are to be breached, bullish scenario gains least chances and we are left with the remaining two bearish.

CBA and the market overall rise from 2011 looks tired, the slope is not steep, fundamentals do not support third wave scenario, and in many stocks it is a corrective affair, or barely reached 2010's highs, small caps even went in different direction. So it is best can be described as another first wave, or wave C(circled).

This threat and recent events...

Entertainment Value == gold.

Shorting of CBA ahead of a retail entitlement offer. Reported shortfall (50%) of entitlement offer all at a very reasonable price in my opinion (I took up my entitlement).

Grabe!

rimtas said:

CBA, and the market overall, from here has only Three scenarios that could unfold. Others are more complex, and from the centuries of data I can say that in the largest degrees market uses simplest forms of corrections, so expecting some wxy would be stupid.

View attachment 64268

1) Large Running Triangle, lasting another 5-6 years or so. Many other smaller banks that are below ATH don't support this scenario very well, but if this Three wave sideways movement continues, they will sport nice EW structures, like double threes.

2) Series one's and Two's. Maybe this 5mo correction is a bit small in time and larger sideways corrective pattern emerges til mid 2016, but Shanghai and Sensex structures are pointing out that it is over and market is ready to rock'n roll. All world indexes (especialy Asian)and many stocks would fit into this scenario very well.

3)Expandet 3-3-5 Flat - Simplest of them all-Wave c, five wave affair, crash to new lows, somewhere to 2700(in XAO) where larger degree trend channel support sits. Will be quick and must end til mid 2016. Basically the last biggest market opportunity provided to those who are born after 1970's. The rest and older, who bought today, simply won't have enough time to recover and see substantial gains in their lifetimes if do not add to their positions in the face of collapsing world around them.

Thankfully we can use CBA chart as the last one or don't even bother to look at it at all as there are plenty of other stocks and indices which can point out early which scenario is unfolding-best, middle or worst. But I would say that if last's months lows are to be breached, bullish scenario gains least chances and we are left with the remaining two bearish.

CBA and the market overall rise from 2011 looks tired, the slope is not steep, fundamentals do not support third wave scenario, and in many stocks it is a corrective affair, or barely reached 2010's highs, small caps even went in different direction. So it is best can be described as another first wave, or wave C(circled).

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Hi Rimtas,

I would like to ask you.... as you have mentioned that you only like to trade using EW.

When you have worked out a likely trade that you are going to take.

How do you work out how far the likely move is going to be.?

I am asking because using my own analysis and techniques on my previous posts in CBA,WOW and BHP.

They all hit there price mark and were mentioned on this forum at least 5 months before it happened.

I enjoy your posts on EW because it is much more advanced then what I use.

I just like to keep EW simple and by incorporating Price, Pattern and Time analysis seems to get me the results I require at this stage.

No sure about the share price but I do wish that this bank would fix their IT systems.

Another day, another failure. Netbank is down yet again. Seems to be happening roughly once a month lately, although this is now the third failure in a week.

Keep this up and they'll be losing customers I expect.

rimtas said:

Don't listen to Porper, he is useless.
1) Large Running Triangle.

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Yes Rimtas, that is why I do this as a job and have been for donkey's years. You admit you don't have the skill to do this. Enough said.

Just a few things. First of all you say you are an Elliott Wave guru (an Elliottician) and you can't even spell it. It is not "Elliot".

Secondly I have always said trading using Elliott Wave alone is not the way to go.

Thirdly, you are the self-appointed guru on the subject who does nothing but constantly changes his counts and analysis...many on here have pointed this out to you; so listen to them. You are super bullish, then super bearish and now apparently say the XAO is a lottery...make up your mind. You seem a very confused person to me.

Finally you cannot make a decent wave count full stop. You have parabolic moves higher (WOW thread) highlighted as a corrective 3-wave move. I thought you was joking at first but no, you are serious...lol

Also, you laughed at me ages ago for suggesting CBA could be making a large triangle and now I see you have it as 1 of your possibilities. Mind you, you've covered all bases. 1 bullish count, 1 neutral and 1 bearish. Congratulations, you will no doubt be spouting soon that you were correct. I think you need help...seriously.

I'll leave you to it.

Porper said:

Thirdly, you are the self-appointed guru on the subject who does nothing but constantly changes his counts and analysis...many on here have pointed this out to you; so listen to them. You are super bullish, then super bearish and now apparently say the XAO is a lottery...make up your mind. You seem a very confused person to me.

Mind you, you've covered all bases. 1 bullish count, 1 neutral and 1 bearish. Congratulations, you will no doubt be spouting soon that you were correct. I think you need help...seriously.

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Thank goodness it wasn't just me thinking this...

Porper said:

Also, you laughed at me ages ago for suggesting CBA could be making a large triangle and now I see you have it as 1 of your possibilities..

I'll leave you to it.

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I am still laughing at your triangle. Mine is at different degree, lol.






And mine is not the No1 possibility, just on the chart it is presented first in the row. All three scenarios today have equal possibilities. We need to see certain price action/levels breached to eliminate two of them.

Triathlete said:

How do you work out how far the likely move is going to be.?.

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Trading Waves involves a pattern recognition. Opening the position I do not know how far prices will go. But I always anticipate the certain pattern to emerge-it could be small, big, steep or sloping.

So basically trading Wave Principe is simple-you saw one complete pattern-opened a position, and from this you anticipate what market will do next and what pattern it shoud sport.
You simply wait for the waves to develop and exit when the pattern looks likely complete. Anything that goes beyond your expectations in regard to form can be used as a decision for yearly exit, that what happened when I was holding WOW-it has risen 7% from my entry point, but the next move it made I recognized as "alien" which shouldn't be there and exited with +5%. Later it rose a bit further, but the pattern I anticipated on entry was busted early in the advance and my observations and trading methodology proved that my analysis that was incorporated in trading plan were right, as always.

Trading Waves doesn't involve trading price, it is only trading the form. You can't mix anything else with Wave Principle, it must be used alone, because there are no any indicators which can tell you that the form of the pattern is right, complete, or recognized.

Gartleys, RSI, Standart deviations, moving averages, fibonacci-they do not and can not tell what kind of pattern is emerging, only Wave Principle can tell this and you need to train your brain to recognize them. Very small amount of people have brains which are good in geometric dimensions. I would say that architects could also trade WP successfully, as an example. Ones who sees things only in two dimensions, can not trade WP.

My main trading strategy is to recognize first and second waves, and enter into anticipated third. It is the easiest part to keep the trade-if the price doesn't behave like third wave, I exit. If it behaves, I wait for the complete count. Expected Third waves are easiest thing to trade when the trade is opened, and they rarely give you a stop in red. That's where my main focus is. Not to mention that theiy give the biggest profit compared to any other market move. Take a few third waves (even in shorter time frames)in a year and you are good to stay still till the next.

Thanks for asking.

Gents in the interest of all other members interested in your analysis can you Fu(king get over the self indulgence criticism of each others analysis FFS.

FFS X2 its the markets and it will do what ever it feels like, none of you repeat none of you have the absolute crystal ball.

No if no buts.

You have opinions thats all nothing more no matter what method you use.

We are all interested in your opinions on the market and value them all even if they are 180 degrees apart.

We are not interested in petty fu(king point scoring please it demeans all.

OK got that of my chest feel free to flame me but give the rest a break


Cheers