CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[Julia]

I meant cba, and also when A company goes ex dividend why does there share price drop?

Just think about it for a minute: I'm sure you can answer your own question.
If you buy it before it goes ex-dividend, what do you get that you don't get after it goes ex?
Wouldn't the share be valued accordingly?
Then as far as today's fall is concerned, I'd expect also some profit taking.

 

[stl_08]

yes I see now julia, also will cba send a letter saying how many shares I now have after the spp and what the average price of my entry into the stock now is?

 

[Julia]

yes I see now julia, also will cba send a letter saying how many shares I now have after the spp and what the average price of my entry into the stock now is?

Presumably you are using an online broker? Their website will show what shares you own. I'm only familiar with Etrade but I imagine all brokers have the facility for you to set your own parameters on your p/f page, including "show average price".

 

[Econinvestor]

No, I come to you with facts and ask you for your facts-- in 'fact' yours is all theory, no evidence.

Also GDP *isn't* lagging, unless we are in a recession now, which is possible, but we will only know looking back at revised data. What is your source for lagging GDP, and what is the figure????

The IMF has forecast a mild recession, private commentators like Access Economics also, others a slowdown or zero growth with no recession.

Your panic list says nothing about a forecast of a recession, which is sustained negative growth. You also provide no numbers.Give me some numbers otherwise, as I said, why should I listen? I've given you my numbers: mild recession (usually a 1 % contraction), a share price ($43 based on six months of stable trade), a write down of bad assets of 16% per annum. Conclusion $37 CBA price.

Sigh... alright man. Be sure to come back in 6 months time and let me know how your bank stock portfolio goes.

Here I am Julia, back in way less than six months, and CBA has hit $37.

As I said, you can't beat logical analysis on fundamentals. I hate to say I told you so, but... then again I'm lying: I quite like to say it because you were so aggressive and didn't give a logical answer to reasonable questions:bananasmi

If you'd bought CBA when I suggested, you'd have made over 25% return.

I've also posted on CSL that it would go to 36 or so. It did. Now it is trading well below fundamental value and I'm buying. Barring ideosyncratic bad news, it will go back to 36 or so for the same reasons I gave last time. Made 6k on it last cycle.

 

[Julia]

Here I am Julia, back in way less than six months, and CBA has hit $37.

I don't know why you're addressing this remark to me. It was juw who mentioned six months.

I have not made any predictions about CBA. Merely provided a quote from a financial commentator.

And if you 'can't beat logical analysis on fundamentals' I wonder why so many technical traders make as much as they do when they frequently haven't the faintest notion what the company even does!

 

[Econinvestor]

I don't know why you're addressing this remark to me. It was juw who mentioned six months.

I have not made any predictions about CBA. Merely provided a quote from a financial commentator.

And if you 'can't beat logical analysis on fundamentals' I wonder why so many technical traders make as much as they do when they frequently haven't the faintest notion what the company even does!

Technical traders make money in any market that is rising. It is possible to show theoretically (and empirically) that any random purchasing strategy will make money in a rising market. There will be a distribution of outcomes as well. Some of them will do extremely well based simply on luck, others badly. But on average, in a rising market, my monkey will make money.

The big issue in finances, so I am told, is whether anybody can make more than the market return, even fundamentals traders. I believe that the latter can, and the former may as well be tossing coins.

 

[Trembling Hand]

The big issue in finances, so I am told, is whether anybody can make more than the market return, even fundamentals traders. I believe that the latter can, and the former may as well be tossing coins.

Ah!! Its good to see that we get a revolving line of so called fundies willing to claim the TA guys can't do what we/they do year in year out. Luckily they refresh so often, it doesn't take them long before they are off trying to make a buck some other way. :

 

[nomore4s]

Technical traders make money in any market that is rising. It is possible to show theoretically (and empirically) that any random purchasing strategy will make money in a rising market. There will be a distribution of outcomes as well. Some of them will do extremely well based simply on luck, others badly. But on average, in a rising market, my monkey will make money.

The big issue in finances, so I am told, is whether anybody can make more than the market return, even fundamentals traders. I believe that the latter can, and the former may as well be tossing coins.

I don't know why I'm bothering but anyway......

TA makes money in any market if applied correctly. FA makes money in any market if applied correctly.

Just because you don't understand TA doesn't mean it doesn't work, don't let your bias to one or the other blind you to other techniques.

Did it ever occur to you that you could actually improve your trading/investing if you broadened your understanding of other techniques?

 

[Julia]

Ah!! Its good to see that we get a revolving line of so called fundies willing to claim the TA guys can't do what we/they do year in year out. Luckily they refresh so often, it doesn't take them long before they are off trying to make a buck some other way. :

Ah, but this time it's different, TH, doncha know!
You're just an ignorant trader - sadly lacking the ultimate wisdom of your so called fundies!

Ecoinvestor, maybe take a look at TH's Home Page. As Nomore4s suggests, you might find something enlightening.

 

[Econinvestor]

Ah!! Its good to see that we get a revolving line of so called fundies willing to claim the TA guys can't do what we/they do year in year out. Luckily they refresh so often, it doesn't take them long before they are off trying to make a buck some other way. :

Here is a challenge for you. Take historic prices of a stock whose name you do not know, taken over dates where you do not know the general market conditions (random dates). TAers claim that they can predict whether or not there will be an increase or a decrease in the SP compared to the index in the week following their analysis, i.e. based only on the chart.

I'll pick 30 stocks, then different dates and give you truncated charts, and all you have to tell me is whether the stock will beat the market or not in the following week.

I guarantee you will fail, because what we know from rigourous and extensive statistical analysis is that stock prices are martingales.

Put your TA where your mouth is!! Do you have the nerve???

 

[prawn_86]

EI,

Before you put your foot in it any further i suggest you check out this thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12683

TH and other technical traders also readily admit that a lot of practice is spent learning the patterns of particular instruments, so of course a blind chart wont work as they do not know what patterns it is prone to.

 

[nomore4s]

Put your TA where your mouth is!! Do you have the nerve???

rotflmao.

You truly have no idea. TH puts his money where his mouth is everyday he trades. I suggest you have a look at his blog or even some of his posts on this thread to see just how stupid your request is.

Why don't take some time to learn & understand TA and then you would know it isn't about being right or predicting anything. Traders can run at 30-40% win rates and still be profitable.

There are plenty of TA traders that beat the market year in and year out.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Put your TA where your mouth is!! Do you have the nerve???

That is a ridiculous task. It has nothing to do with how real traders use TA to make money.

DumB!!

Pull your head in and read through this before you profess to being an expert in something you clearly have little practical knowledge about.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10405


From about post 15

 

[Aussiest]

Enough about that. I am wondering when CBA is going to stop rallying? Surely over fair value now?!

I wonder when they're going to lift the ban on shorting financials

(Comsec says May, but who knows!?).

 

[Naked shorts]

Enough about that. I am wondering when CBA is going to stop rallying? Surely over fair value now?!

I wonder when they're going to lift the ban on shorting financials

(Comsec says May, but who knows!?).

Im hoping they dont extend the short on financials to

No doubt some long-only smuck "investor" like EI will complain to the ASX saying that they can't handle stock prices going down and that they should perpetually go up forever.

 

[doctorj]

Lets try to keep this on topic please - CBA, rather than the age old technical vs fundamental arguement.

 

[white_goodman]

food for thought.


if it rejects and gets support at current levels i could see it going long... yesterdays bar was an inverted hammer, with the day before showing a hammer....

also got support of 50ema and 200sma (i dont really use but is a good confirmation)

 

[cuttlefish]

Anyone got any short term technical view on CBA? Looks like potential further downside imo to mid 34.00 support area. Broken some medium term trend support and also a potential h&s'y sort of pattern in recent days - breakdown could possibly send it down to 34.00+ area support?

 

[cuttlefish]

Forgot to mention - Volume seems to confirm this picture as well imo - relatively high volumes in the recent price strength hasn't overcome supply, and no strong evidence of demand appearing to accumulate in recent price weakness so price may need to range down more to find demand. (note last bar in chart above is incomplete because its today's bar).

 

[Boggo]

CBA has played by the rules so far, an ABC correction may play out before it continues upwards again.

Just my amateur

(click to enlarge)