CB (count back) Lines & Chart Patterns
- Thread starter coyotte
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Barney,tech/a said:
If you are interested in following up on tech/a's comment above, there are a couple of articles on Chuck Le Beau's site at the URL below: http://traderclub.com/discus/board.html
that you may find interesting.
Select the 'Bulletins' link in the left hand frame to see the list of articles.
When using any indicator, including the ADX, it is always important to understand the pros and cons of using them.
Another aspect to consider is related to correlated and uncorrelated indicators.
Besdies the encyclopedia that tech/a mentioned, you can refer to the A-Z of Technical analysis that can be found online. I think there is a copy on the Equis site or you can use a reference, such as the one by Edwards and Magee.
Cheers
Hello coyotte,coyotte said:
I was really pleased to see you posting up examples of your style. It is always interesting to see a fellow trader displaying their craft.
I know it can be frustrating when people scrutinise what you have become comfortable using, and have taken a pride in. It would be a shame for you to stop at this point since you just started to illustrate a picture for us.
I for one appreciate the effort you were going to, and I imagine I was not the only one.
Please do continue, and perhaps the questions (which are actually a positive sign - in that people are taking notice of what you are doing, even if this is critical) can be framed more respectfully.
Regards
Magdoran
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Magdoran:
This Thread was iniated by a question I recieved via PM , as part of the response I offered against my better judgement, to follow a TRADE I was in ( LHG ) with the inquirer.
( I have done this before and then as now found it to be extremly distracting to the trade --- leads to hesitation ).
I told the inquirer that I did not want the THREAD to end up like most of the threads on this site , off the original subject and just a slinging match . ---- That at the first sign of this I would bow out .
The THREAD is about SIMPLE trading methods with a bit of basic advice ( hence the post SHORTS ).
The THREAD is restricted to YOUR OWN PERSONAL and PRACTICAL EXPERINCE
What you have read but NOT applied --- Personal opinons with no Practical back-up---- Back Testing (horse racing systems) ---- DO NOT BELONG HERE
Practical contsructive critisim is more than welcome --- just be mindful of others who may be in a TRADE , that your comments do not distract them from what they are doing.
Exactly the type of thing I wanted to advoid is this reply to tech/a statements.
Early in the thread I stated that only 2 patterns iniate a trade , they are a RISING TRIANGLE or a BULL FLAG for a LONG, opposite for a SHORT ---- hence 70/80% S/R
( Practical not what I've read or Quoted from others )
The Count Back Line is used only as a confirmatin tool for Breakout Trading .-- It does not belong to Pattern Trading
There must be another unrelated signal EG: Trend line rebound, Bollinger Band rebound etc --- this was also stated earlier.
The C/B as a STOP (in a Trend Trade ) is only used as a last resort (insurance) -- by the time it is hit U should have been out of the Trade ---- also stated earlier.
The ADX --- at no time did I state the ADX was a entry signal --- what I said was that with a Topping Treading stock -- to shorten the 21d to 14d -- watch for D+,D- and ADX divergence along with Candles , Bollinger Bands etc , taken as a group they are INDICATING a warning ---- also stated earlier.
After a stock has maintaned its rise as a Breakout or Pattern , if a new UP trend is on the way the ADX will confirm this and can be used as a trend tracking tool , there are probably others , if you have USED them over a period of time and not mearly read about or back tested them, then bring them into the discussion .
This Thread is intended for posters who are ACTUALLY TRADING
Their Practical experinces and Practical advice ONLY
Cheers
This Thread was iniated by a question I recieved via PM , as part of the response I offered against my better judgement, to follow a TRADE I was in ( LHG ) with the inquirer.
( I have done this before and then as now found it to be extremly distracting to the trade --- leads to hesitation ).
I told the inquirer that I did not want the THREAD to end up like most of the threads on this site , off the original subject and just a slinging match . ---- That at the first sign of this I would bow out .
The THREAD is about SIMPLE trading methods with a bit of basic advice ( hence the post SHORTS ).
The THREAD is restricted to YOUR OWN PERSONAL and PRACTICAL EXPERINCE
What you have read but NOT applied --- Personal opinons with no Practical back-up---- Back Testing (horse racing systems) ---- DO NOT BELONG HERE
Practical contsructive critisim is more than welcome --- just be mindful of others who may be in a TRADE , that your comments do not distract them from what they are doing.
Exactly the type of thing I wanted to advoid is this reply to tech/a statements.
Early in the thread I stated that only 2 patterns iniate a trade , they are a RISING TRIANGLE or a BULL FLAG for a LONG, opposite for a SHORT ---- hence 70/80% S/R
( Practical not what I've read or Quoted from others )
The Count Back Line is used only as a confirmatin tool for Breakout Trading .-- It does not belong to Pattern Trading
There must be another unrelated signal EG: Trend line rebound, Bollinger Band rebound etc --- this was also stated earlier.
The C/B as a STOP (in a Trend Trade ) is only used as a last resort (insurance) -- by the time it is hit U should have been out of the Trade ---- also stated earlier.
The ADX --- at no time did I state the ADX was a entry signal --- what I said was that with a Topping Treading stock -- to shorten the 21d to 14d -- watch for D+,D- and ADX divergence along with Candles , Bollinger Bands etc , taken as a group they are INDICATING a warning ---- also stated earlier.
After a stock has maintaned its rise as a Breakout or Pattern , if a new UP trend is on the way the ADX will confirm this and can be used as a trend tracking tool , there are probably others , if you have USED them over a period of time and not mearly read about or back tested them, then bring them into the discussion .
This Thread is intended for posters who are ACTUALLY TRADING
Their Practical experinces and Practical advice ONLY
Cheers
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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My apologies I was un aware you set the guidelines for this thread!
What makes you think we are not trading?
What makes you think the advise given has/is not practical.
Frankly what I see is analysis paralysis,a common fault of early users of tech analysis.
You expected that all your statements would be accepted? Strange.
To some practical discussion.
Regardless of governing trend?
This is extremely misleading I certainly challenge the 70-80% strike rate.
When do you initiate trades before a break or after the first break bar?
When has it failed in your veiw?
A breakout doesnt need confirmation ---it can be seen!!! Support from increased volume is handy.
Purely dependant on time frame.CBL used as an entry and exit will have you whipsawing your trades.Used as an exit It is far too premature.
However as a trailing stop in some instances could lock in profits.
Honestly this is just Technical paralysis---I'm no novice after 12 yrs you can spot it a mile off---totally un necessary to trade.
Ive investigated most technical trading methodlogies over the years and rejected most.Ive tested more technical indicators and setup than you probably know of. You should learn how to test them as it can and will save you lots of money,heart ache and hrs of un necessary delusion.(as you can trade ideas over years of data in seconds).Do enough of that long enough and you'll have a pretty good idea of whats useful and whats not!
Yes I trade.I can direct you to the live trading of one methodlogy over the last 4 yrs and still traded live if you'd like.
coyotte.
You sadly under estimate the experience here of some of the posters.
Personally I have used and discarded much of that which you write years ago.
So to will you,when you discover what you need to do to trade consistently----analysing your brains out either Technically Fundamentally or BOTH ----isnt in itself the path to consistant profit.
I have no problems with your posts or examples but dont treat us as collectively (or individually) technically ignorant!
tech
Dear Coyote,
I think it is good that you have taken the time to demonstrate your approach to Barney.
Having said, that I feel sorry for you in the level of naivety that appears to come across in your latest post and your insinuation about posters not being ACTIVE traders.
So far from the truth that it is not funny.
If you find it distrcating to post live anlaysis and trades either don't do it or work on your trading psychology. If you have the confidence you claim/imply (to have) in you rmethod then nothing in the posts below should really affect your trading.
Your view on backtesting appears to be limited and again naive. Why not ask a relevant question rather than equate it to a horse racing system.
A very recent article published in the USA comments on the number of automated systems coming online in the markets and that in the forseeable future the market place is going to become a battle of computers. These systems will be backtested to the 'nth degree and some of them will have AI built in.
Why would they want to trade blindly in the market on whim and a prayer.
You sadly underestimate the level of knowledge and experience of a range of posters on this forum.
But, in not wanting to create a slanging match your comments appear to be prepared so start one, especially if anyone wants to raise any questions related to your approach.
We can all learn from questioning and even challenging each others approaches, as it can asssit in progressing our knowledge. That's the way of the progressive world, as we are in reality individuals and not sheep.
Enjoy your trading. Trying taking a deep breath and counitng to 10 every now and then.
Cheers.
I think it is good that you have taken the time to demonstrate your approach to Barney.
Having said, that I feel sorry for you in the level of naivety that appears to come across in your latest post and your insinuation about posters not being ACTIVE traders.
So far from the truth that it is not funny.
If you find it distrcating to post live anlaysis and trades either don't do it or work on your trading psychology. If you have the confidence you claim/imply (to have) in you rmethod then nothing in the posts below should really affect your trading.
Your view on backtesting appears to be limited and again naive. Why not ask a relevant question rather than equate it to a horse racing system.
A very recent article published in the USA comments on the number of automated systems coming online in the markets and that in the forseeable future the market place is going to become a battle of computers. These systems will be backtested to the 'nth degree and some of them will have AI built in.
Why would they want to trade blindly in the market on whim and a prayer.
You sadly underestimate the level of knowledge and experience of a range of posters on this forum.
But, in not wanting to create a slanging match your comments appear to be prepared so start one, especially if anyone wants to raise any questions related to your approach.
We can all learn from questioning and even challenging each others approaches, as it can asssit in progressing our knowledge. That's the way of the progressive world, as we are in reality individuals and not sheep.
Enjoy your trading. Trying taking a deep breath and counitng to 10 every now and then.
Cheers.
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Re: Coyotte
Hi Coyotte,
Firstly I would like to thank you for at least being brave enough to post some charts, and a description of how you perhaps go about some of your trades. Wish more posters would do the same on this forum.
I was however under the impression you do not use moving averages of any type in your comments of post #73 in the "Re: Improving Chart Analysis Thread" Refer to the comments from that post below:
Not trying to criticize here, rather just talking from my own experience using Bollinger Bands years ago. I found them to be of very little use in my trading
If you look at what Bollingers are and what you are trying to acheive with them, it's a complete waste of time as they are lagging indicators and will give you very little "earling warning" of anything.
What is a moving average?? It is simple cutoff filter. Depending on the span chosen the resulting trace or line is a representation of the sum of all the cycles greater than the span chosen. There is only one problem here, the relationship between the moving average and the data it smoothes is NOT the one that is shown on stock price charts. In fact, the moving average data point plotted in association with the last price datum should be associated with a price datum half the time span of the average in the past!!!! A moving average becomes a great deal more useful if plotted correctly. To do so, the theoretical time lag of such an average must be taken into account.
How do you do this? Move the moving average back in time half the span you have chosen. In doing so you will see that MA is now in sync with the price action!! The remaining price action between the end of the MA and the last data point is you time delay or lag in the filter. There should be enough info in terms price data for you to extend the MA to end of the price action, or you can simply use various curve fitting techniques to help you do this.
By doing this, you can now virtually toss away all the other lagging indicators you are using like adx etc. From you modified Bollinger chart, you are now able to improve the timing of your pivots, as now price is oscillating from one band (upper) to another (lower) You now have just one tool that may aid you to trade forward timeframes. One caveat though, you need to be able to choose the correct span (dominant cycle) of your price action.
Price itself is the best indicator
Cheers
Hi Coyotte,
Firstly I would like to thank you for at least being brave enough to post some charts, and a description of how you perhaps go about some of your trades. Wish more posters would do the same on this forum.
I was however under the impression you do not use moving averages of any type in your comments of post #73 in the "Re: Improving Chart Analysis Thread" Refer to the comments from that post below:
Not trying to criticize here, rather just talking from my own experience using Bollinger Bands years ago. I found them to be of very little use in my trading
If you look at what Bollingers are and what you are trying to acheive with them, it's a complete waste of time as they are lagging indicators and will give you very little "earling warning" of anything.
What is a moving average?? It is simple cutoff filter. Depending on the span chosen the resulting trace or line is a representation of the sum of all the cycles greater than the span chosen. There is only one problem here, the relationship between the moving average and the data it smoothes is NOT the one that is shown on stock price charts. In fact, the moving average data point plotted in association with the last price datum should be associated with a price datum half the time span of the average in the past!!!! A moving average becomes a great deal more useful if plotted correctly. To do so, the theoretical time lag of such an average must be taken into account.
How do you do this? Move the moving average back in time half the span you have chosen. In doing so you will see that MA is now in sync with the price action!! The remaining price action between the end of the MA and the last data point is you time delay or lag in the filter. There should be enough info in terms price data for you to extend the MA to end of the price action, or you can simply use various curve fitting techniques to help you do this.
By doing this, you can now virtually toss away all the other lagging indicators you are using like adx etc. From you modified Bollinger chart, you are now able to improve the timing of your pivots, as now price is oscillating from one band (upper) to another (lower) You now have just one tool that may aid you to trade forward timeframes. One caveat though, you need to be able to choose the correct span (dominant cycle) of your price action.
Price itself is the best indicator
Cheers
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Money Management with a Rising Triangle :
Ideally the Triangle should form over over 7 to 10 trading days .
Around the later 2/3 thirds of the development is generally the ideal Entry.
With LHG the Tri was confirmed on Mon 25 th Sept allowing a entry on Tues 26th --- Ave price ( the green line) say 2.77.
From Entry 2.77 to Target 3.01 (real 2.99 ) we have potential profit of .22c , with the Rising Stop @ 2.56 a potentia loss of .21c
So our Potential Profit/Loss is odds of 1/1 , a even money bet .
As the STOP risers our loss is diminishing whilst our profit is static.
As from Fri --- barring a sudden price move, we are in a NIL risk position.
As for the Stirrup Trade as the Thurs 28 Sept Open was the Entry we are now almost at the NIL risk area 2.86
Tend to think a lot of new raders do not uderstand what the STOP is reresenting
The STOP is the size and odds of the BET.
In the LHG example at the initial entry:
Target = Winning = .20c
Loss = Bet = .20c
Odds = 1/1
As you can see from the above that by lowering the STOP , you are only increasing the BET & Odds but not the Winnings --- your betting against yourself.
Same principle applies with Tread Trading , as you place your STOP beaware of the potential Profit -- is the Bet size/Odds to large in relation to the potential Prize ?
Ideally the Triangle should form over over 7 to 10 trading days .
Around the later 2/3 thirds of the development is generally the ideal Entry.
With LHG the Tri was confirmed on Mon 25 th Sept allowing a entry on Tues 26th --- Ave price ( the green line) say 2.77.
From Entry 2.77 to Target 3.01 (real 2.99 ) we have potential profit of .22c , with the Rising Stop @ 2.56 a potentia loss of .21c
So our Potential Profit/Loss is odds of 1/1 , a even money bet .
As the STOP risers our loss is diminishing whilst our profit is static.
As from Fri --- barring a sudden price move, we are in a NIL risk position.
As for the Stirrup Trade as the Thurs 28 Sept Open was the Entry we are now almost at the NIL risk area 2.86
Tend to think a lot of new raders do not uderstand what the STOP is reresenting
The STOP is the size and odds of the BET.
In the LHG example at the initial entry:
Target = Winning = .20c
Loss = Bet = .20c
Odds = 1/1
As you can see from the above that by lowering the STOP , you are only increasing the BET & Odds but not the Winnings --- your betting against yourself.
Same principle applies with Tread Trading , as you place your STOP beaware of the potential Profit -- is the Bet size/Odds to large in relation to the potential Prize ?
Attachments
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Was going to reply but wont bother.
Nice to see an expert novice at work.
Nice to see an expert novice at work.
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Hi there guys, I feel a bit responsible for the degeneration of the "vibe" on this thread,even though I know it is not my doing..............Can I say firstly, that I have been given excellent advice from many around here and you all know who you are so thanks for that! I appreciate all advice, whether i do or dont understand it.
Now whether others disagree with Coyottees methods/ use of analysis or whatever is really arbitrary IMO, cause personally, I've found 90% of what C has explained/ told me has been excellent advice/very helpful..........(The other 10% will also be helpful when I learn more) (and I dont just mean this thread....many threads).........
Coyotte trades his system, and it works for him.....that being the case, I repsect that, as I do Tech Mag Les and too many others to mention, but IMO it was not Coyottees intention to get into a debate on who's system is the best.............If your system works for you, then it is the best sytem for you to use (not my words....simply paraphrasing what I've learnt around HERE!)
The time required to "describe" how you trade is consuming, so I appreciate Coyottees (and others) taking that time to "educate" myself and others on the Forum............ But perhaps rather than finding "fault" with others' systems/methods, it would be more productive to say .........well thats an interesting approach........now heres an approach "I" use that you might also find useful/interesting etc..................
It is human nature, unfortunately, to "judge" others, but I've got to say, that I find the less you judge others, the more you can learn from/about them, and hopefully appreciate their views/opinions.........and I'm talking in general, not just share trading................
Anyway enough ranting for a Sunday morning............you should all be at church getting your "sins" forgiven
Cheers to all, Barney.
Now whether others disagree with Coyottees methods/ use of analysis or whatever is really arbitrary IMO, cause personally, I've found 90% of what C has explained/ told me has been excellent advice/very helpful..........(The other 10% will also be helpful when I learn more) (and I dont just mean this thread....many threads).........
Coyotte trades his system, and it works for him.....that being the case, I repsect that, as I do Tech Mag Les and too many others to mention, but IMO it was not Coyottees intention to get into a debate on who's system is the best.............If your system works for you, then it is the best sytem for you to use (not my words....simply paraphrasing what I've learnt around HERE!)
The time required to "describe" how you trade is consuming, so I appreciate Coyottees (and others) taking that time to "educate" myself and others on the Forum............ But perhaps rather than finding "fault" with others' systems/methods, it would be more productive to say .........well thats an interesting approach........now heres an approach "I" use that you might also find useful/interesting etc..................
It is human nature, unfortunately, to "judge" others, but I've got to say, that I find the less you judge others, the more you can learn from/about them, and hopefully appreciate their views/opinions.........and I'm talking in general, not just share trading................
Anyway enough ranting for a Sunday morning............you should all be at church getting your "sins" forgiven
Cheers to all, Barney.Coyotte
Regarding those countback entries on OXR.....I notice that OXR was staggering around like a drunken sailor in a cyclone at the time, no clearly defined trend, basically drifting around in no mans land, going more or less sideways.
Such stocks whipsaw you to pieces....they're difficult to trade profitably no matter whether your entries are based on CB lines or anything else.
I think you'll find that trading is much easier and more profitable if you trade only stocks that are in clear uptrends, (or clear downtrends for short trades).
Regarding the 'upsloping triangle' on LHG.....I presume you mean 'ascending triangle'. There are a couple of things wrong with the ascending triangle you marked on the LHG chart. The first is that it's not an ascending triangle at all. No disrespect, but you need to learn how to correctly identify chart patterns. Suggest you try www.chartpatterns.com
The second thing wrong with the pattern you've outlined is that it occurred while the trend was sideways to down. By going long from this pattern you're trading against the trend.....no wonder the trade is staggering around and showing reluctance to head north.
Triangles can be reliable patterns, but only when they're traded in the direction of a clearly established trend. An ascending triangle should be preceded by a decent uptrend. A descending triangle should be preceded by a decent downtrend.
Symmetrical triangles can be traded long during uptrends, and short during downtrends.
Coyotte, I give you credit for your willingness to help a new trader like Barney. However, some of your information is unintentionally misleading.
Bunyip
Regarding those countback entries on OXR.....I notice that OXR was staggering around like a drunken sailor in a cyclone at the time, no clearly defined trend, basically drifting around in no mans land, going more or less sideways.
Such stocks whipsaw you to pieces....they're difficult to trade profitably no matter whether your entries are based on CB lines or anything else.
I think you'll find that trading is much easier and more profitable if you trade only stocks that are in clear uptrends, (or clear downtrends for short trades).
Regarding the 'upsloping triangle' on LHG.....I presume you mean 'ascending triangle'. There are a couple of things wrong with the ascending triangle you marked on the LHG chart. The first is that it's not an ascending triangle at all. No disrespect, but you need to learn how to correctly identify chart patterns. Suggest you try www.chartpatterns.com
The second thing wrong with the pattern you've outlined is that it occurred while the trend was sideways to down. By going long from this pattern you're trading against the trend.....no wonder the trade is staggering around and showing reluctance to head north.
Triangles can be reliable patterns, but only when they're traded in the direction of a clearly established trend. An ascending triangle should be preceded by a decent uptrend. A descending triangle should be preceded by a decent downtrend.
Symmetrical triangles can be traded long during uptrends, and short during downtrends.
Coyotte, I give you credit for your willingness to help a new trader like Barney. However, some of your information is unintentionally misleading.
Bunyip
Coyotte
Here's an example of what a true ascending triangle should look like, and how it should be traded.
Sorry I can't post a chart - I haven't bothered to learn how to - maybe you can instruct me.
The stock is ADB
ADB made a high of $9.72 on 4/11/04......this was the point 1 of the ascending triangle.
Next it pulled back and made a low of $9.37 on 15/11/04...this was point 2 of the triangle.
Then it went up to a high of $9.74 on 18/11/04...this was point 3 of the triangle. Now we have two equal highs (near enough), i.e. points 1 & 3, on which to draw the upper horizontal boundary or the triangle.
Then a pullback to the low of $9.50 on 23/11/04....point 4 of the triangle. Now we have two lows, points 2 & 4, on which to draw the upward sloping lower boundary of the triangle.
Extend the upper and lower boundaries of the triangle to the right until they join. It's also a good idea to mark in points 1, 2, 3 & 4.
24/11/04 was the breakout day with high of $9.80
Go long on the 25th at $9.81(one tick above the breakout day) with a stop just below the bottom boundary of the triangle, directly below the breakout day. In this case the stop would be at about $9.49, which is a risk of 3.3%
A couple of points worth noting...
1. An uptrend preceded the triangle.....this is VERY important. Triangles are continuation patterns....if a solid uptrend precedes the formation of the triangle, the stock is more likely to continue a solid uptrend once it breaks out above the triangle.
2. The two tops that formed the upper boundary of the triangle were not exactly equal, but they were only 2 cents apart - that's close enough for our purposes.
3. The breakout day was not accompanied by increased volume. Strictly speaking, it should have been. However, my experience is that increasing volume sometimes doesn't kick in until a few days after the breakout - it seems that traders sometimes take a few days to realise the stock is on the move, then they start piling into it, causing increasing trading volume.
So while increased volume on the breakout day is preferable, I don't believe the pattern should be ignored if it doesn't exactly follow the rules in this regard.
Cheers
Bunyip
Here's an example of what a true ascending triangle should look like, and how it should be traded.
Sorry I can't post a chart - I haven't bothered to learn how to - maybe you can instruct me.
The stock is ADB
ADB made a high of $9.72 on 4/11/04......this was the point 1 of the ascending triangle.
Next it pulled back and made a low of $9.37 on 15/11/04...this was point 2 of the triangle.
Then it went up to a high of $9.74 on 18/11/04...this was point 3 of the triangle. Now we have two equal highs (near enough), i.e. points 1 & 3, on which to draw the upper horizontal boundary or the triangle.
Then a pullback to the low of $9.50 on 23/11/04....point 4 of the triangle. Now we have two lows, points 2 & 4, on which to draw the upward sloping lower boundary of the triangle.
Extend the upper and lower boundaries of the triangle to the right until they join. It's also a good idea to mark in points 1, 2, 3 & 4.
24/11/04 was the breakout day with high of $9.80
Go long on the 25th at $9.81(one tick above the breakout day) with a stop just below the bottom boundary of the triangle, directly below the breakout day. In this case the stop would be at about $9.49, which is a risk of 3.3%
A couple of points worth noting...
1. An uptrend preceded the triangle.....this is VERY important. Triangles are continuation patterns....if a solid uptrend precedes the formation of the triangle, the stock is more likely to continue a solid uptrend once it breaks out above the triangle.
2. The two tops that formed the upper boundary of the triangle were not exactly equal, but they were only 2 cents apart - that's close enough for our purposes.
3. The breakout day was not accompanied by increased volume. Strictly speaking, it should have been. However, my experience is that increasing volume sometimes doesn't kick in until a few days after the breakout - it seems that traders sometimes take a few days to realise the stock is on the move, then they start piling into it, causing increasing trading volume.
So while increased volume on the breakout day is preferable, I don't believe the pattern should be ignored if it doesn't exactly follow the rules in this regard.
Cheers
Bunyip
I agree with barney: I’d like to suggest that when we all raise points and observations (particularly by the more senior traders – both in terms of age and experience), that we do so in an accepting, respectful, and inclusive fashion.barney said:Hi there guys, I feel a bit responsible for the degeneration of the "vibe" on this thread,even though I know it is not my doing..............Can I say firstly, that I have been given excellent advice from many around here and you all know who you are so thanks for that! I appreciate all advice, whether i do or dont understand it.
Now whether others disagree with Coyottees methods/ use of analysis or whatever is really arbitrary IMO, cause personally, I've found 90% of what C has explained/ told me has been excellent advice/very helpful..........(The other 10% will also be helpful when I learn more) (and I dont just mean this thread....many threads).........
Coyotte trades his system, and it works for him.....that being the case, I repsect that, as I do Tech Mag Les and too many others to mention, but IMO it was not Coyottees intention to get into a debate on who's system is the best.............If your system works for you, then it is the best sytem for you to use (not my words....simply paraphrasing what I've learnt around HERE!)
The time required to "describe" how you trade is consuming, so I appreciate Coyottees (and others) taking that time to "educate" myself and others on the Forum............ But perhaps rather than finding "fault" with others' systems/methods, it would be more productive to say .........well thats an interesting approach........now heres an approach "I" use that you might also find useful/interesting etc..................
It is human nature, unfortunately, to "judge" others, but I've got to say, that I find the less you judge others, the more you can learn from/about them, and hopefully appreciate their views/opinions.........and I'm talking in general, not just share trading................
Anyway enough ranting for a Sunday morning............you should all be at church getting your "sins" forgiven
We need to remember that forums like this work best when people feel welcome to comment, and are encouraged to post. I think it’s great that we have such a strong pool of talent to draw from, and there is something appealing about the diversity of styles, wouldn’t you agree?
If we aggressively tear into genuine posts, this may stifle the rich flow of sharing ideas. The danger is, if there’s too much negative criticism and people feel they are “under the microscope”, this will act as a disincentive for people to post up their ideas. This applies to intermediate, beginner, and even advanced traders.
Let’s embrace the members who post genuine examples for the benefit of illustrating their style. Just think about it this way. It’s about the tone, not the content. How would you like to be treated if you posted your work up? Sure we are all going to have our perspective, but just think about the possible avenues of discussion that can be inspired from one poster having the courage to post as coyotte has done here.
What I’d like to see are constructive responses such as the way bunyip and wavepicker assertively raised their points. This is an excellent example of how to respectfully address a post, and yet outline valuable observations. Let’s encourage people to post, no matter how basic or complex, and try to foster an inclusive ethos.
Regards
Magdoran
P.S. Hey, I’m including myself here too… we all need to keep raising the “diplomatic” bar higher! - not too high though! Hahahaha - got to have some fun too! Mag.
Magdoran said:
Completely agree.
Some people resort to rudeness and sarcasm to make their point when they disagree with someone.
It's completely unnecessary. A person of character can get his or her point across without being rude and inconsiderate.
Bunyip
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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What and destroy my obnoxious #1 rating!!
Technical peanut outstanding achiever award--from Lord Duc.
Enemy#1 from the darkside---the Gann Clan.
Duck turns pussy!!
Its like taking Macenro out of tennis.
Cummmoooonn!!! Present your stuff!
If your going to offer information for public scrutiny then expect to be scrutinised.
I'm fair I'll give credit where its due.
Technical peanut outstanding achiever award--from Lord Duc.
Enemy#1 from the darkside---the Gann Clan.
Duck turns pussy!!
Its like taking Macenro out of tennis.
Cummmoooonn!!! Present your stuff!
If your going to offer information for public scrutiny then expect to be scrutinised.
I'm fair I'll give credit where its due.
Attachments
Bronte
Trading The SPI for 20+ years
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Great posts Magdoran / bunyip :iagree:bunyip said:
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Coyote,
It is nice to know what sort of stats a system produces in actual trading over a long period of time. Testing of things like count back lines and ADX in the past has led them to be rejected by me as a strategy, although CBL's are difficult to code for testing purposes. Testing is also no guarantee that an indicator does or doesn't work - there are so many variables.
Is it possible to put the rules that you use into clear step by step guidelines? For example indicate;
1. The timeframe that you use,
2. the universe of stocks selected,
3. the position sizing strategy,
4. when you would enter a trade
5. and when you would exit a trade.
This would be useful for coding purposes and give a better understanding of the strategy being outlined above. You also mention some statistics (70% plus S/R) - are there other stats available for the methods outlined. My apologies if I missed this info above.
I am a great devotee of backtesting trading strategies - it is difficult to find good systems that are tradeable.
regards
Stevo
drawdown.blogspot.com
It is nice to know what sort of stats a system produces in actual trading over a long period of time. Testing of things like count back lines and ADX in the past has led them to be rejected by me as a strategy, although CBL's are difficult to code for testing purposes. Testing is also no guarantee that an indicator does or doesn't work - there are so many variables.
Is it possible to put the rules that you use into clear step by step guidelines? For example indicate;
1. The timeframe that you use,
2. the universe of stocks selected,
3. the position sizing strategy,
4. when you would enter a trade
5. and when you would exit a trade.
This would be useful for coding purposes and give a better understanding of the strategy being outlined above. You also mention some statistics (70% plus S/R) - are there other stats available for the methods outlined. My apologies if I missed this info above.
I am a great devotee of backtesting trading strategies - it is difficult to find good systems that are tradeable.
regards
Stevo
drawdown.blogspot.com
RichKid
PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan
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bunyip said:
Hi Bunyip, here's a guide to posting an attachment, it's very easy once you've done it once or twice, happy to help if you need it, just post in the thread linked or pm me or any of the other mods:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401&highlight=attachment
As a moderator and a member I would like to thank all the members who have engaged constructively and empathetically in this thread with a view to furthering the discussion.
It is a sure sign of ASF's maturity to have its members take responsibility for the level of decorum show in online debates. We only need a few strong voices (out of the thousands who join ASF) showing public leadership and compassion to make a big difference on ASF.
Coyotte, your motivation for starting this thread is beyond reproach, it is my sincere wish that your efforts in trying to improve the lot of someone who came to you for help will be repaid to you by others here who will try to help you develop in your trading. I am glad that you have continued to post publicly in this thread despite the strain such scrutiny may place upon you initially.
Finally, let us remember that there is a significant difference between criticism and critique, let us see more of the latter and let it be done in good spirit and with abundant compassion and tolerance.
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IMHO the most important post in this thread , actually vital , is post No.28.
As I was saying to Barney that this thread was leading to the Bottom Line -- and that is that the most important thing / the only thing , that brings around long term profits is your approach to STOPS.
After all T/A , F/A , Gann , Elliot or any combination isn't rocket science , these are mearly tools that we use initially, after a while these drop to the wayside and U can just look at a chart with its Trend Lines, and interpret it , all the other stuff is just making it a bit more comfortable.
Any trading stock , as far as the trader is concernered can only move in one of two directions , if its consolidating sideways , then at the moment it's not tradeable --- so if you mearly tossed a coin you have 50% chance of being right , all any analyst can do is throw the odds your way , because U already have a two horse race.
I admit that under classic pattern rules LHG has not formed a perfect triangle (probably more a pitchfork) but what the heck -- to me it's close enough to an ascending triangle which should throw the edge my way , if I was only to trade stocks that fitted the classic descriptions down to a T , I'd be waiting forever, another excuse to procrastinate.
Far more important is the EXIT and about the only time I use any indicators in a Trend Trade.
From the LHG example ( as with any triangle) the Inital STOP is the Target Reversed , hence (baring a sudden price move) the Loss or Bet is 50/50.
The Actual position size I initially took with LHG was 870 shares * $2.76 = $2400 , The relastic Target is $2.99 =$2600 = profit $200.
The inital rising STOP at $2.56 = $2227 = loss/bet $173
It is the $173 that is at risk not the $2400 -- Profit on turnover is calcualated on the $173 --- the $2400 is mearly the position size.
So initally as long as STOPS are applied I'm making a $173 bet for a $200 profit --- If the STOP is lowered , then the BET size must increase BUT the PROFIT still stays static at $200.
What this is leading to is ODDS and overlay betting :
If I have a selection method that generates a 50% Strike Rate , which picking any old stock at random is going to produce long term , and I can consistently BET $173 for a $200 profit in the long run I must come out ahead -- but if I'm betting $300 for a $200 profit in the long run I must lose --- this is one of the golden rules of punting.
Try Bollinger Bands at 20*2 on a 5 min chart , -- you'll see exacatly what I'm talking about with breaks outside the bands --- I use this method consistently during the day with trading stocks : in and out / in and out
Cheers
As I was saying to Barney that this thread was leading to the Bottom Line -- and that is that the most important thing / the only thing , that brings around long term profits is your approach to STOPS.
After all T/A , F/A , Gann , Elliot or any combination isn't rocket science , these are mearly tools that we use initially, after a while these drop to the wayside and U can just look at a chart with its Trend Lines, and interpret it , all the other stuff is just making it a bit more comfortable.
Any trading stock , as far as the trader is concernered can only move in one of two directions , if its consolidating sideways , then at the moment it's not tradeable --- so if you mearly tossed a coin you have 50% chance of being right , all any analyst can do is throw the odds your way , because U already have a two horse race.
I admit that under classic pattern rules LHG has not formed a perfect triangle (probably more a pitchfork) but what the heck -- to me it's close enough to an ascending triangle which should throw the edge my way , if I was only to trade stocks that fitted the classic descriptions down to a T , I'd be waiting forever, another excuse to procrastinate.
Far more important is the EXIT and about the only time I use any indicators in a Trend Trade.
From the LHG example ( as with any triangle) the Inital STOP is the Target Reversed , hence (baring a sudden price move) the Loss or Bet is 50/50.
The Actual position size I initially took with LHG was 870 shares * $2.76 = $2400 , The relastic Target is $2.99 =$2600 = profit $200.
The inital rising STOP at $2.56 = $2227 = loss/bet $173
It is the $173 that is at risk not the $2400 -- Profit on turnover is calcualated on the $173 --- the $2400 is mearly the position size.
So initally as long as STOPS are applied I'm making a $173 bet for a $200 profit --- If the STOP is lowered , then the BET size must increase BUT the PROFIT still stays static at $200.
What this is leading to is ODDS and overlay betting :
If I have a selection method that generates a 50% Strike Rate , which picking any old stock at random is going to produce long term , and I can consistently BET $173 for a $200 profit in the long run I must come out ahead -- but if I'm betting $300 for a $200 profit in the long run I must lose --- this is one of the golden rules of punting.
Try Bollinger Bands at 20*2 on a 5 min chart , -- you'll see exacatly what I'm talking about with breaks outside the bands --- I use this method consistently during the day with trading stocks : in and out / in and out
Cheers
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coyotte said:
coyotte said:
