Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Can we get real about Options on ASF?

Let's jump into another options strategy to accommodate stock portfolios. My previous post was a stock accumulation strategy (a cash-secured-put alternative), this time I wanted to cover a strategy that can enhance existing stock portfolio holdings.

Now I was contemplating writing about the well-known 'Covered Call' strategy, which is structured generally as an OTM call option that has equal share quantity to the number of shares you own. This is a great strategy to extract extra premium from your holdings, but the downside is giving up your right to the upside of your stock and risking having to sell your shares.

I'd assume most long-term stockholders are in a position of carefully selecting stocks you've spent hours researching and developed a child-like relationship with your bigger holdings and wanting to hold and continue to hold over a long period of time. Why would you risk the loss of your favourite stocks with a covered call? What if you get assigned to sell your stock? You take in cash and have to redeploy, you lose of good performing stock, but worse of all you have a capital gains tax event; I'd argue not a great outcome for you long term portfolio owners out there.

Yes, you can trade European Options, roll your calls up and out for a credit and maybe, eventually get back OTM to keep the initial premium you receive, months and months after you place the trade - but I think for the time that takes, plus the fees you pay it really makes you question the value. You get into a position of chasing your tail to avoid selling your shares.

Anyone who has traded covered calls has been in the position where you sell the call, then the call gets takeout within the first week, and you sit there regretting selling the call in the first place.

If you're actually happy to sell your stock, this isn't really a problem. You keep the credit for putting the trade on, the stock goes up in value for a share increase and you lock in profits.

So, what can we do to lose that risk? Easy, set you covered call as a Call Credit Spread. Which is simply selling a call option, then buying a call option further OTM for a lesser price as protection, for a net credit trade.



It turns the payoff diagram from this for a covered call:
1717454286104.png


to this for a credit spread alongside a stock position (1:1 ratio):

1717454345664.png


The desired outcome is the same - you hope the stock stays below the sold call leg, that option expires worthless, and you keep the premium received. I've just moved the risk area by adjusting the trade as you can see above. But now, if your underling stock catches a flyer, you're not losing and all that effort picking this undervalued stock in the first place hasn't gone to waste.

However, common Covered call concepts apply:

- best in a sideways trending market with moderate to high implied volatility
- you could argue if you have no intention of selling the underlying, this also works in a bear market.
- if the stock is on a run, leave it - why try to pick a top?
- higher IV = higher premium

Key facts to note:

- a sold call will provide more premium (income) than the call credit spread
- a sold call caps your upside on your stock position, where a call credit spread does not. You just take the maximum loss of the trade while the underlying stock can still move up.
- you can still be assigned on the sold call part of the trade - consider Euro Options or managing early >2 weeks until expiry to avoid this.
- having 2 legs now gives great flexibility to roll into new trades depending on how the stock moves, as @wayneL has mentioned previously.
- consider volatility skew as mentioned by @ducati916, as a call credit spread, ideally the sold leg has higher IV than the bought leg for more premium collection.
- be careful of 'pin risk', a chance that at expiry the sold leg can be ITM and the bought leg OTM - I'd say if your sold leg is close to the share price at expiry its worth closing / rolling into a new position.
- Cash settled options - such as the XJO make this strategy even better, because you don't have to worry about assignment and losing your stock. @Gunnerguy has a fantastic example of this in a previous post on this thread on beta weighting the portfolio extracts low risk premium from Index options rather than with each individual stock.

Hope this helps.

Cheers,
VB
 
Just placed a trade in out of hours for tomorrow;

XLE
Expiry 14 June
BTO CALL @ $91.00 @ $0.77
STO CALL @ $92.50 @ $0.08

Max Risk per 1 contract pair = $0.69
Max Reward per 1 contract pair = $0.81

R/R = 0.85/1

So the plan is just to let it run until expiry on Friday (Saturday our time).

Obviously depending on where the market opens etc I may/may not get a fill. I'll update tomorrow.

jog on
duc
 
Just placed a trade in out of hours for tomorrow;

XLE
Expiry 14 June
BTO CALL @ $91.00 @ $0.77
STO CALL @ $92.50 @ $0.08

Max Risk per 1 contract pair = $0.69
Max Reward per 1 contract pair = $0.81

R/R = 0.85/1

So the plan is just to let it run until expiry on Friday (Saturday our time).

Obviously depending on where the market opens etc I may/may not get a fill. I'll update tomorrow.

jog on
duc
So the theory is .,..

You’ve paid $0.69 (debit/max loss) expecting or hoping XLE (US Energy ETF) will rise over $92.50.

If XLE is over $92.50 on expiration date you ‘could’ buy at $91.0, and forced to sell at $92.50 resulting in a gain of $1.50. Less the debit if $0.69 gives you a net gain of $0.81.

If below $91 on expiration a loss of $0.69.

Break even price is $91.0 + $0.69 = $91.69. So anything above $91.69 would be a profit. (Which is only a rise of 1.1% from current price over 3 days)

[posted just to express my understanding in layman’s terms]

Gunnerguy
 
So the theory is .,..

You’ve paid $0.69 (debit/max loss) expecting or hoping XLE (US Energy ETF) will rise over $92.50.

If XLE is over $92.50 on expiration date you ‘could’ buy at $91.0, and forced to sell at $92.50 resulting in a gain of $1.50. Less the debit if $0.69 gives you a net gain of $0.81.

If below $91 on expiration a loss of $0.69.

Break even price is $91.0 + $0.69 = $91.69. So anything above $91.69 would be a profit. (Which is only a rise of 1.1% from current price over 3 days)

[posted just to express my understanding in layman’s terms]

Gunnerguy

So a second trade placed out of hours is UNP:

Screen Shot 2024-06-11 at 4.25.23 PM.png


Expiry 14 June 2024
BTO 14 June CALL @ $230 @ $1.55
STO 14 June CALL @ $240 @ $0.13

Max Risk $138
Max Reward $858

R/R 1/6

Again, depending on the market, may/may not get filled.

jog on
duc
 
Just placed a trade in out of hours for tomorrow;

XLE
Expiry 14 June
BTO CALL @ $91.00 @ $0.77
STO CALL @ $92.50 @ $0.08

Max Risk per 1 contract pair = $0.69
Max Reward per 1 contract pair = $0.81

R/R = 0.85/1

So the plan is just to let it run until expiry on Friday (Saturday our time).

Obviously depending on where the market opens etc I may/may not get a fill. I'll update tomorrow.

jog on
duc
XLE at 88.7 (9.30 AWST).

Not looking good for this trade unfortunately 😞. But 1 day to go … fingers crossed for you.

Gunnerguy
 
LYC down to $6.16 (9.30 AWST).

Gina Rinehart bought 5% of LYC 3 weeks ago at $6.25 I seem to remember.

Will she add at this price or wait for a possible further fall.

Is it worth selling an August put at say $5.50 for some premium ? If it falls further just roll out (and down) if the position gets threatened ? Or get assigned at a price lower than Gina bought for ?

Or is lithium going lower ?

Is this the bottom or is there still full capitulation yet to come ?

Gunnerguy.
 
I was tempted to do this trade but held back. Oil/energy looks to be on a decline short term.

Gunnerguy


In the 'intermediate' term I agree.

Two viewpoints for 'counter-trend' trade:

Screen Shot 2024-06-14 at 6.30.04 PM.png
Screen Shot 2024-06-14 at 6.31.13 PM.png


The blue circle is where the trade was entered. The idea was to catch a short (few days) counter-trend trade. No joy.

The subject of volatility, specifically 'implied volatility"

Screen Shot 2024-06-14 at 3.56.37 PM.png
Screen Shot 2024-06-14 at 3.55.29 PM.png


And why 'selling high vol' is a high probability trade.



jog on
duc
 
The XJO Volatility Index (XVI) is at 6-week highs - naturally caused by the recent uncertainty in the market following lower than expected earnings reports from the Big Tech Stocks.

Currently 12.6

1721870538916.png

Does US Technology earnings really affect our market? Either way, Higher Implied Volatility = more premiums on options.

IV Ranks are climbing on our ASX 20 stocks:
1721870670554.png


Arguably no better time in the last 6 weeks to consider selling premium, Covered calls and Cash secured puts (from a whole market view).

I've started to accumulate sold puts within the mining sector at these high IV levels, starting small and averaging in depending on opportunity. Also collecting premium selling covered calls over GMG around the $34-35 level, rolling to avoid assignment.

Anyone else seeing value within options pricing currently?

Cheers,
VB
 
It's
The XJO Volatility Index (XVI) is at 6-week highs - naturally caused by the recent uncertainty in the market following lower than expected earnings reports from the Big Tech Stocks.

Currently 12.6

View attachment 181444
Does US Technology earnings really affect our market? Either way, Higher Implied Volatility = more premiums on options.

IV Ranks are climbing on our ASX 20 stocks:
View attachment 181445

Arguably no better time in the last 6 weeks to consider selling premium, Covered calls and Cash secured puts (from a whole market view).

I've started to accumulate sold puts within the mining sector at these high IV levels, starting small and averaging in depending on opportunity. Also collecting premium selling covered calls over GMG around the $34-35 level, rolling to avoid assignment.

Anyone else seeing value within options pricing currently?

Cheers,
VB
It's subjective of course. We talk in terms of implied volatility and historical/statistical volatility.

We can equally talk in terms of forecast volatility and realised volatility.

How good is the market at forecasting volatility?

A few years ago I did a study comparing volatility as forecast (IV), to the realised volatility over that time frame forecast. It showed me the market is laughably bad at it.

Fair enough, none of us have a very good crystal ball.

If we could talk in terms of this as being positive gamma (net long options) vs negative gamma (net short options)..... A market maker that I got to know a few years ago remarked that in terms of premium, sometimes what we think is expensive is cheap and what we think is cheap is expensive, but there is no way of knowing ahead of time.

IOW premium may actually be relatively cheap at the moment.

Disclaimer: I have no idea, but just putting forth some points for thought.

Place yet bets, Ladies and Gentlemen.
 
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