wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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It turns out that such a simple concept is actually quite complex... And all to do with those pesky Greeks.In my initial self talk, I used 1) basic long Put or Call
I buy at X and expect to sell at X+something worth...
I also know the most I can lose if wrong or can not sell my losing "bet"
Great insight, Blake.Hoping to provide a unique perspective here on this topic. I was first introduced to options from a company I worked at, had an options trading desk and options research subdivision and immediately took an interest. I was able to see from the other side how people traded, strategies and what the winners did well.
Having traded options for about 5 years, lost a lot, won a little over in the US, I'm fortunate enough to recently secure a position with a group of guys who previously had built risk management systems for the Full-Service derivatives advisors here in AUS, now only this year released a proper retail options offering for ASX ETOs. No question that people get deterred from ASX options due to the terrible infrastructure, high fees and lack of information by big brokers. (By no means am I here to promote this system, just to scratch my options addiction and hopefully provide a different insight. Maybe a topic for another thread if there's interest at all).
Now I have the benefit of interviewing Full-Service Options advisors via our education portal (selfishly that's great for my education and knowledge) and seeing how many of our sophisticated client's trade.
I'll get the bad out of the way first, how most people lose - speculate. Low expiry dates, OTM (out-of-the-money) options, low probabilities (PoP), you have it coming for you and it never ends well; may as well go to Crown (or the local casino). High risk behavior. This is why when you talk with someone about options they say "its a high risk, high leveraged, gambling tools." Maybe you see that post on WSB that made millions, but all very unlikely.
Think about how the institutions use options then I think you're on the right track. They hedge, they manage risk, they adjust their portfolios using the Greeks, they have a plan. Great example is @Gunnerguy above ^ - very similar to how a fund would gain some alpha from the market. @ducati916 your scoring system is new to me but would love to learn more about it, looks very interesting! find something that works for you.
Warren Buffett uses Options at Berkshire Hathaway. They sell cash-secured puts on stocks they want to buy at the valuation they want to buy at. This might not get you that 3% a month but might add 4-5% (or more) a year above what a buy and hold portfolio does. Can turn into some serious $ over the time he's been investing.
Especially if, like me, you don't know which way the market will go tomorrow, you can trade fear (Implied Volatility) and Theta (time decay) which is amazing once you know how options work. Candlesticks are not my friend. Every stock I've ever bought has had a big sell-off the days after I buy. I'm a sucker for catching the falling knife.
What I've seen new traders often miss:
- Implied Volatility - maybe the most important Options factor. significantly affects the premium on options - and usually mean reverting to the underlying's historical volatility average. Buy options when IV is low, sell options when IV is high (as a general rule)
- trying to close positions at 0-3 DTE (days to expiry) - if you're at a loss and you leave it to the last week, the market makers will eat your lunch - they know you'll do anything to avoid assignment and will capitalize on your weakness
-trade options that have good liquidity, ASX top 20 ETO Class have 5 market makers each (on Monthly expiries) - you'll more often than not get a fair price.
- Not having a plan - when to buy, when to sell, manage early (without overtrading and paying too many fees) understanding and managing portfolio risk.
It's good to see some interest on ASX ETO's. No question they're useful instruments for portfolio management - look at US and India. Might be our turn soon.
I'm still working on my own strategies here, but also prefer market neutral, theta positive and optimize with Covered calls when appropriately
Great
Great insight, Blake.
Especially love your point on cash secured puts/covered calls. It's a point I have tried to get across on here for several years. The 3% per month is nothing more that wishful thinking, the 5% *per year* over the underlying based on reality (notwithstanding tax implications).
Those insights from the institutional side of the ledger will be most useful
I haven't actually seen this before, Duc.
On my own I have been trying to develop a probabilities forecast based on recent market movements. In that regard I have been a little bit like a mule at a new gate. I just know that there is a way to unlatch it but haven't quite been able to figure it out yet.
I will have to acquaint myself with this, might be just but I've been looking for, thanks.
Mr Blake,Hoping to provide a unique perspective here on this topic. I was first introduced to options from a company I worked at, had an options trading desk and options research subdivision and immediately took an interest. I was able to see from the other side how people traded, strategies and what the winners did well.
Having traded options for about 5 years, lost a lot, won a little over in the US, I'm fortunate enough to recently secure a position with a group of guys who previously had built risk management systems for the Full-Service derivatives advisors here in AUS, now only this year released a proper retail options offering for ASX ETOs. No question that people get deterred from ASX options due to the terrible infrastructure, high fees and lack of information by big brokers. (By no means am I here to promote this system, just to scratch my options addiction and hopefully provide a different insight. Maybe a topic for another thread if there's interest at all).
Now I have the benefit of interviewing Full-Service Options advisors via our education portal (selfishly that's great for my education and knowledge) and seeing how many of our sophisticated client's trade.
I'll get the bad out of the way first, how most people lose - speculate. Low expiry dates, OTM (out-of-the-money) options, low probabilities (PoP), you have it coming for you and it never ends well; may as well go to Crown (or the local casino). High risk behavior. This is why when you talk with someone about options they say "its a high risk, high leveraged, gambling tools." Maybe you see that post on WSB that made millions, but all very unlikely.
Think about how the institutions use options then I think you're on the right track. They hedge, they manage risk, they adjust their portfolios using the Greeks, they have a plan. Great example is @Gunnerguy above ^ - very similar to how a fund would gain some alpha from the market. @ducati916 your scoring system is new to me but would love to learn more about it, looks very interesting! find something that works for you.
Warren Buffett uses Options at Berkshire Hathaway. They sell cash-secured puts on stocks they want to buy at the valuation they want to buy at. This might not get you that 3% a month but might add 4-5% (or more) a year above what a buy and hold portfolio does. Can turn into some serious $ over the time he's been investing.
Especially if, like me, you don't know which way the market will go tomorrow, you can trade fear (Implied Volatility) and Theta (time decay) which is amazing once you know how options work. Candlesticks are not my friend. Every stock I've ever bought has had a big sell-off the days after I buy. I'm a sucker for catching the falling knife.
What I've seen new traders often miss:
- Implied Volatility - maybe the most important Options factor. significantly affects the premium on options - and usually mean reverting to the underlying's historical volatility average. Buy options when IV is low, sell options when IV is high (as a general rule)
- trying to close positions at 0-3 DTE (days to expiry) - if you're at a loss and you leave it to the last week, the market makers will eat your lunch - they know you'll do anything to avoid assignment and will capitalize on your weakness
-trade options that have good liquidity, ASX top 20 ETO Class have 5 market makers each (on Monthly expiries) - you'll more often than not get a fair price.
- Not having a plan - when to buy, when to sell, manage early (without overtrading and paying too many fees) understanding and managing portfolio risk.
It's good to see some interest on ASX ETO's. No question they're useful instruments for portfolio management - look at US and India. Might be our turn soon.
I'm still working on my own strategies here, but also prefer market neutral, theta positive and optimize with Covered calls when appropriate.
All depends on one’s level of acceptable risk and the value of one’s time. 3 years in to my journey I am averaging a better return on my options portfolio than my buy and hold portfolio. About 12% on my options portfolio after costs (before tax) for about 15 hours a week of my time managing options trades.5% per year above the underlying, for all the extra stress involved, only seems interesting for a big portfolio - or maybe people with a not SO big portfolio but without a regular job.
I have traded a few index options and oil ETF in the US.
I was toying with the idea of doing a Bear put credit spread at a delta of maybe 0.05 on Tesla over their earnings. High volatility so reasonable premium. Any thoughts.
Bear in mind we talking here about a fairly simple covered call strategy, systematically applied. Not that much time nor stress involved and as I have pointed out many times, it will reduce volatility of returns.5% per year above the underlying, for all the extra stress involved, only seems interesting for a big portfolio - or maybe people with a not SO big portfolio but without a regular job.
IV is higher than HV but,So:
View attachment 175155View attachment 175156View attachment 175154
What strikes are you thinking of using?
IV is pretty good.
TSLA is already in a bear pattern. Bad news could really drop the stock, whereas good news won't make as much headway higher (IMO).
I'd be looking at selling CALLS rather than PUTS
jog on
duc
What strike would you sell a call at ?So:
View attachment 175155View attachment 175156View attachment 175154
What strikes are you thinking of using?
IV is pretty good.
TSLA is already in a bear pattern. Bad news could really drop the stock, whereas good news won't make as much headway higher (IMO).
I'd be looking at selling CALLS rather than PUTS
jog on
duc
What strike would you sell a call at ?
Would you sell a spread of naked call ?
A $20 gain on $250 risk over 7 days on a high IV ? 4% in 7 days ? IV will drop, playing the theta decay no ?View attachment 175160View attachment 175161
So I would on the 26 April Expiry
Sell Call $172.50 for +/- $0.97
Buy Call $175.00 for +/- $0.77
Credit $0.20
Risk $2.50
The box should provide enough resistance to blunt a positive earnings report. A bad or average and you should be profitable.
However, that being said I would never place this trade. $20 profit for $250 in risk is just not for me.
You could also place both trades as a 'Strangle'. One leg must win and possibly both legs.
jog on
duc
A $20 gain on $250 risk over 7 days on a high IV ? 4% in 7 days ? IV will drop, playing the theta decay no ?
What is the delta in the $172 ?
Sorry my delta in the previous previous post should have read 0.06 rather than 0.6.
a lot of this talk look like sorry greek to me:Sorry my delta in the previous previous post should have read 0.06 rather than 0.6.
The IV may well be 82% but what is the 13 week IV rank ? Is 82% higher or lower than the common/average IV over the last 13 weeks or over earnings weeks ? I usually use the 13W Rank to guide my decisions.
So yes my 120p delta is 0.06 with 2.6% risk and your 172c delta is 0.1 giving a 4% risk (SP at $149)
A good example to those learning options of the relationship between delta/probability/risk-return.
Great discussion !!
One could always do an iron condor (I’m not too keen on these myself) using my bull put credit and your bear call credit. We get both premiums ….. my $8 and your $20 with a (my) maximum risk of $300. A 7 day risk return of $28/$300, 9.3% (Annualised at 484% pa … lol).
If SP moves less than 19.4% up or less than 15.4% down the iron condor would ‘win’ but in addition at earnings the IV is likely to drop so BTC (buying to close) could also net a profit irrespective of SP movement.
Good discussion.
Gunnerguy
I mentioned before in this thread and another that I used a website called Option Alphaa lot of this talk look like sorry greek to me:
what would you remember as website/book to read to get the basics on options?
I am sure many newbies would be keen to know as well
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