Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Buy with open arms?

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So_Cynical said:
So what changed in the 4 days between those posts? i mean really changed?

Nothing
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That's it really, nothing has changed, the ASX200 remains very cheap indeed, imho. In the words of so many, "that doesn't mean it wont go down further" - on the other hand it gets cheaper still.
Forced sellers, panicky types and generally those who can't take the pain are the sellers; not a bad thing you know as it shakes the weak apples off the tree.
Currency changes are something to watch carefully as I still think the Aussie will move to the range A$1.25 - A$1.35 to the greenback in the nearer term.
Watch commodity prices and the Aussie dollar strength or weakness.
Watch also for any caving in by Rudd & Co over the Henry proposals.
 
The last time I got enthusiastic - I was clobbered by the Hungary announcement, but this turned out to be a big exaggeration. So I'm staying invested (although guilty as charged on the panicky thing :() The pressure is building on the Aust govt about the mining super tax, so I'd expect any announcent now should be a good one - from the point of view of miners anyway.

...I think the Aussie will move to the range A$1.25 - A$1.35 to the greenback in the nearer term.....noirua
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Wow that's a big call, but I'd love to see it happen. The $USD really looks extended doesn't it.
 
Unnamed User said:
If the employment figures out of the US tonight are not at least 500K, then it is going to get ugly....

Having that, i think they will beat that easily, here's hoping....
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That was a good call, 2 days before the result came out. Smaller rise in jobs saw the djia tank 325 points.

[QUOTE...I think the Aussie will move to the range A$1.25 - A$1.35 to the greenback in the nearer term.....noirua....[/QUOTE]

This one makes me think someone is having a lend of us. :confused: With the flight from the Euro to the U.S$ we are gaining against the Euro but have lost ground against the U.S$. Mind you, the lower dollar and current lower priced shares makes our shares more attractive to overseas investors.
 
From a General Chat thread but relevant if it's mining stocks you're planning to buy:

I'm listening to PM Gillards acceptance speech. The following are relevant to the proposed new mining tax:

- She has committed to the budget being in surplus by 2013 (see note below)

- She re-affirms that the Australian people are entitled to a fairer share of mining profits

- She has said to the mining industry: that the goverment will cancel it's mining tax advertising if the mining industry will cancel it's ads.

- she has said that the government will afterwards negotiate again with the mining industry about the proposed tax

If people will recall, the return to budget surplus by 2013 was on the assumption of a mining tax (RSPT, or "future tax" spin term) in the recent Rudd govt budget. So there's the new message to the miners - the Gillard govt will negotiate, but they firmly intend to have the mining tax, and indeed it is already in the budget!
 
The Bears have their own thread. It's called XAO Analysis :) Well in that thread they always seem bearish to me anyway. So perhaps this thread can provide some bullish balance.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601057&sid=afhp5gFngGA4

BlackRock’s Doll Says ‘Double-Dip Recession’ Unlikely (Update2)
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Shani Raja and Susan Li

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- A “double-dip” recession is unlikely, even as corporate earnings and economic reports raise fresh concerns over the strength of a global recovery, said Robert Doll, of BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager.

U.S. stocks have the potential to climb higher in the second half of this year, Doll, BlackRock’s vice chairman, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped as much as 0.5 percent today after a report showed U.S. home-builder confidence fell more than forecast, fueling concern the recovery is faltering.

“My view is that we will not have a double dip, and that we’ll work our way higher, but maybe not just yet,” Doll said. “If we can get through the second quarter with earnings reasonably good, revenues reasonably good versus expectations, that will be a good down-payment on getting out of what ails us in this period.” Earnings have been “okay, but not great,” he said.

The S&P 500 index rallied 23 percent in 2009 as governments worldwide mounted stimulus programs to counter a global recession. This year, it has lost 3.9 percent as European budget deficits and China’s steps to curb asset bubbles looked like threatening a recovery.

U.S. Reports

Speculation of a double-dip recession intensified this month as reports pointed to a contraction in U.S. manufacturing and slowing economic growth in China, and after companies from Google Inc. to General Electric Co. and Citigroup Inc. reported earnings or revenue that missed analysts’ estimates.

“If this is just an ordinary cyclical slowdown, which is my view, stocks will have a better second half,” Doll said. Even as China’s growth slows, the world’s most populous nation will continue to spur a global recovery and drive up stock markets, particularly in developing nations, he said.

“China is a potent force of growth,” said Doll. “We do think they have the muscle to help continue the emerging markets being the leader of the world’s growth scene.”

BlackRock is “overweight” U.S. stocks within its developed markets portfolio because of the “significant stimulus” ploughed into the economy over the past two years, Doll said.

“We’re overweight, but not as much as before, the emerging markets,” he said. “Our preference is to play them through the multinationals.”

In January, BlackRock predicted the S&P 500 may end the year at 1,250, which is almost 17 percent above yesterday’s closing level.

To contact the reporters for this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.
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Logique said:
The Bears have their own thread. It's called XAO Analysis :) Well in that thread they always seem bearish to me anyway. So perhaps this thread can provide some bullish balance.
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Your join date for the forum is April 2007, the way I see it, the market has been in a downtrend since October 2007, probably why they always seem bearish to you ;)
 
Purely on an historical basis there is no guarantee this market will not have further significant losses.

I took this table from the following site.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/The_Stock_Market_Crash_of_1929.htm

You can see that after the 1929 crash it took 4 years for the DOW to recover.


Year Dow
Return Return
1920 -32.9%
1921 12.7%
1922 21.7%
1923 -3.3%
1924 26.2%
1925 30.0%
1926 0.3%
1927 28.8%
1928 48.2%
1929 -17.2%
1930 -33.8%
1931 -52.7%
1932 -23.1%
1933 66.7%
1934 4.1%
1935 38.5%
1936 24.8%

Follow the trend. Bottom picking is dangerous and distasteful if engaged in with hard earned money or leverage.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Purely on an historical basis there is no guarantee this market will not have further significant losses.

I took this table from the following site.

http://www.amateur-investor.net/The_Stock_Market_Crash_of_1929.htm

You can see that after the 1929 crash it took 4 years for the DOW to recover.

Follow the trend. Bottom picking is dangerous and distasteful if engaged in with hard earned money or leverage.

gg
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1929 is a apples and oranges comparison....its a totally different market and economy now, everything happens faster now everything is so much more dynamic.IMO
 
What the market 'does' and what the market 'should do' are two very different things. If we all knew where the market was heading we could make a fortune. I would say this - a volatile market is not a 'buy and hold' market so whatever you decide to do, be ready to act fast. You don't make money trading by watching the market....or lose for that matter :cool:
 
ggkfc said:
its risky waters at the moment aye?
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Risk other than entry point and stock selection is something i don't pay much attention too....my investment strategy hasn't changed since mid/late 2008.
 
Buy with open arms! Isn't that risky? Well, it's like this: You have to jump a gap just 3 metres across! No problem for an able bodied person and only a small chance of falling over. But but BUTT, what if there's to be a drop of 30 metres to the rocks below? "NO THANKS", he shouts. Ahhhhhhh yes, that's what risk is about; if you've researched your stock and are certain then you must jump the gap everyday and prove yourself to yourself, that you're a man my son; WHO SAID THAT?
 
In very serious circumstances here I see a sea of, yes, it's BLUE across that there pond of the Americas and beyond. All up and we get a feeling of warmth and well-being and great pleasure in thinking, 'we have bought with open arms, oh yes.
Re: We have all bought with open arms.
 
Tough indeed for contrarian thinking, but stockmarkets are very low, - considering each sector in its own right, carefully of course - and a good point to buy with open arms. Go back to the peaks in 2000 - 2001 and you'll see the point.
 
noirua said:
Tough indeed for contrarian thinking, but stockmarkets are very low, - considering each sector in its own right, carefully of course - and a good point to buy with open arms. Go back to the peaks in 2000 - 2001 and you'll see the point.
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gotta love your tongue in cheek remarks.. its sure as heck the way everyone wants you to think..

enjoying the comedy big time.. :D:D:D
 
So is everyone ready for a contrarian rally into black September? Europe hasn't gone broke...there's still growth in the US, China rolling along, the banks are still lending....time for a rally back to 4900 i reckon. :2twocents
 
Tongue in Cheek Agentm only 4,900 So_Cynical: No no no, we are going for 5,500 in 2010, 7,000 in 2011 and 10,000 in 2012, be sure to sure. Open those arms and start buying at once.
Look at the low point in 2000/2001, add on inflation and 20% for luck and you can see what's to come, absolutely old feller m'lad.
 
I do feel those who mock this thread are humgruffians and make my eyes humect.
As we all know, "sell in May and go away" and come back with a month with an 'R' in it; September me thinks. Thus 'buying with open arms?' would be good.
Remember there are other places to invest than Australia as the ASX200 has performed badly, probably due to the strong Aussie. The FTSE100 has so many stocks foreign to the UK that buying with the AUD may be a good consideration, going forward - however ...
Sectors need to be looked at, again me thinks, as those foreigners are buying up Australia.
Good Luck
 
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