(Bull) Market Feb. 2021

And:



jog on
duc

Very pleased to see some of the market froth blown away last night. There's still plenty to more to go. This selloff is good test of the resolve of the bulls. Will be very interested to see if there's solid buying tonight in the US or do they hide and think about things over the week-end.

Flabbergasted to see GME up so much premarket last night and pleased to see that my broker allowed me to short it.

I'm sitting here waiting for the ASX to reverse. I'm surprised that it hasn't yet. Downward momentum slowing, but it hasn't paused, let alone reversed. My third attempt at trading the reversal just triggered (6670). I'll need at least 20pts to break even.

Futures looking nasty:



jog on
duc

Smurf1976 said:

Just clarifying what kind of serious you're referring to?

Serious as in you're thinking the major stock indices drop modestly, say 10%, then it's on with the bull?

Or serious as in the bull's over, here comes a test of the lows from 2020 kind of serious?

Just not sure how to interpret your comment really....

Click to expand...

Back in the third week of January I posted this long term delta chart which suggested a key reversal Feb/March plus or minus a few months. This long term chart has stood the test of time since I started using this approach in 2004. I also posted these other charts below too as I thought there was a lot coming together in terms of confluence.
Taking the Delta chart at face value ( if the cycle solution is correct) then this decline may persit till early to mid 2022 if in fact cycle point red 10 has been established. Also of confluence is the Fibonacci/Lucas time counts where a number of significent time cycles come togther this month for the SPX.
That is the time side of things, now what about price? I have created this long term geometric chart. It all "starts with one line". I joined the 2003 bottom to the 2007 top and extended it into the future. After cloning this line I have drawn a parallel to the 2000 top. Lastly I have drawn an equidistant parallel line below. This last line is a thing of beauty, it has acted as support for almost every correction since the 2009 bull began. More importantly price has now just reached the original middle line extention and looks like after briefly throwing over is reacting away from it, so obviously these lines are very important with respect to how price interacts with them.

Now before I get to far ahead of myself, I should note that I had a price projection of between 4150 to 4350 for ther SPX. The minimum of this has not been met and my projections are met or exceeded 76% of the time and we only reached 4000. So given the Delta time analysis is accuarte to only plus or minus a few bars (months) on this chart it's plausible it might have another crack at trying to meet that projection. But also it could be that the projection also gets invalidated and this would be shown by price crossing back down below the centered moving avarages I use in my Price Projection routine. That has not happened yet. If the correction continues it may set up a new downside projection. The shorter term 5W cycle has already set up a downside projection of 3766-3777. No doubt lower projections may come along next week.

EOW and EOM:



Yesterday's Bond sell-off:



The stock market will (seemingly) recover. BTD will once again work. However, under cover, the market is if not broken, near to being broken. The recovery will embolden risk on and leverage. The 10yr is now headed to 1.6%. There may well be a cooling off period, but unless the Fed. steps in with curve control, the 10yr marches higher. I now suspect that 2% rather than 3% is a breaking point.

Junk turns downward. A blip? We'll see. An early warning? We'll see.



VIX remains elevated in both Corporates and Stocks. Again, might go higher, might go lower moment.




Unless 'something else' happens, this is a short-term BTD. Monday may open with a minor sell-off, but we are likely to trade higher.



So a number of articles re. the return of day trading a la the 1999 era:





Day trading in volume, certainly adds to market vol. With added vol. there is an increase in algo. trading as they love vol. Bigger and faster swings could be the norm for a while.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:




Gold:

Has obviously been hammered due to rising rates. With rates now targeting 1.6%, it is unlikely that gold will be rallying any time soon. Of course, if the Fed. fix the curve, gold will explode higher.




DXY:

I would expect a bounce and DXY to trade higher. Currencies are a tricky business as there are just so many variables. A reversion trade looks possible in the short term.



jog on
duc

and last night for a "kind of" first time in the last weeks, oil went down in a measurable way, was still climbing yesterday...