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BUD - Buddy Technologies

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Please tell me you holding Barney?
Another announcement, hot off the press.

ASX MARKET RELEASE
Record LIFX Smart Light Orders Increased to A$4.3m
SUMMARY
● Earlier today the Company announced the receipt of purchase orders for approximately
US$2.6m (A$3.6m) of LIFX White, the Company’s recently introduced low-cost white smart light
● Subsequent to that announcement, those purchase orders have been amended to include additional units, with a new total value of US$3.1m (A$4.3m)
● This new total means this largest set of orders for smart lights the Company has ever received
now eclipses the previous largest orders by 33% in terms of unit volumes
● The Company will not ordinarily announce each purchase order for LIFX White or other products in its portfolio, except where orders exceed those typically placed in the ordinary course of business.
 
Buddy, punching on.
The chart looks remarkably similar to the mid 2017 lead up to ~40 cent.
Instead of the double bottom as in 2017, covid has given a saucepan bottom which is now on the mend nicely with good volume to match.

I would point out that the rise in 2017 was merely speculation where the price would go, product was largely in R&D stages and pre LIFX manufacturing, I believe.

Product is now to market and scaling up to meet demand, so it's really going to be an interesting ride ahead.

Hopefully that's a bit of illumination on the matter for @Linus van Pelt, illustrating using the combination of FA & TA with the latter being simply analysed.
Maybe @peter2 or @Skate or @tech/a might be interested to show a more detailed TA analysis, if time permits.

Logic states that physical product to market over mere speculation could mean a climb in the stock price to that of mid 2017 and beyond.
A wholly reasonable proposition, in my opinion.

5 Year chart.



3 month chart clearly showing the ascension out of the saucepan.



I think it's only reasonable to consider the share price updraught has only just started picking up, on the long term picture perspective.
Plenty of meat and fat on the bone for any who would give it a chance, in my personal opinion.
@rnr @Trav. @barney interested? Any guidance?
 
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We will need to see the FY results to see if there is an investible business in BUD, the last 4C shows the dire straits the business is actually in, and the high cost debt hangs over its head heavily. The positive thing is that it looks to be very low capex business, so if it can scale up quick enough to survive then it should be able to become profitable.

Its tight though, without the cap raising it would likely have become insolvent this quarter.

Obviously the good news is the increased orders and that should be enough to keep their heads above water for a while, if they can build on that and get sufficient margin as it scales it might just work out.
 

I thought an under performing outfit in dire straits would be right up your alley? Normally your Xmas...
 
Am quite sure they sorted out a line of credit early on in the covid period.
I believe that had them covered for cash for up to 3 years.
Just like many companies, covid has been really bad timing.
(for myself and family also...it has been the third wammy in a row in a period starting from September last year...)

In my opinion, the share price movement is indicative of the recovery all round.
 
frugal.rock said:
I believe that had them covered for cash for up to 3 years.
Click to expand...

Well the line of credit expires in October this year, I believe the Trade finance facility only has about 12 months to term.

Regardless if a business can only survive by drawing down on credit facilities then its not investible IMO.

The next 4C will be very important IMO, I think there is a considerable amount of deferred revenue which should come though on it and we will get a much better idea of whether its really scaling up to profitability or not.

As I have said I really like the product, so I am happy to continue to watch closely and see if I can come to like the business as well!
 
galumay said:
As I have said I really like the product, so I am happy to continue to watch closely and see if I can come to like the business as well!
Click to expand...
Watch away. I am not recommending the stock, purely expressing an opinion.
I would encourage anyone reading to do your own research.
The information posted by myself may or may not be correct, and should not be considered financial advice or guidance in any way, shape or form. Direct or indirect.
Full stop.

Just Announced, July update.

SUMMARY:
● July was the Company’s first EBITDA positive month in 2020, with consolidated revenue of A$4.9 million, up 90% from June (A$2.5 million) and up 80% from July 2019 (A$2.7 million)
● EBITDA for July was A$36k (up from -A$266k in June, and significantly up from -A$647k in
July 2019)
● Government subsidies & rebates related to COVID-19 were A$207k, down 66% from June (A$600k), meaning that customer revenue was up 138% from June, and up 72% from July 2019
● Total current assets were A$10.7 million, up 18% from June (A$9.1 million), comprising A$5.5 million of trade receivables, A$3.3 million of inventory and $1.9 million of cash.
 
Thats certainly the type of scaling that potential investors will want to see, very encouraging. The next 4C will be very interesting, that will indicate if the revenues are sticky and the costs controlled. It may well see them move to OCF +'ve and even potentially FCF +'ve. If they can maintain that for a series of quarters then I am going to be seriously interested!
 

Since when has closing the gate after the horse has bolted been an effective method of investment?
Buying at the high and selling on the pullback doesn't net you income, even if you tip the chart upside down.
 
frugal.rock said:
Hands up whoever's bought a one way ticket ?
Tickets selling out fast...
Click to expand...

Lol ... No doubt you are feeling quite chuffed with yourself at the moment with BUD FR

When a large holding behaves, financial pressures are eased so good luck with it and lets hope it continues onwards and upwards

PS Of course, if your windfall becomes substantial, you may well consider shouting your Online comrade @barney a cheap bottle of bourbon for my next birthday

PPS With Pepsi Max please ... I'm watching my weight

Jokes aside, BUD up another 23% today ... closed on the high ... good luck with it FR and any others holding.
 
Up another 10% at the moment today!!

That bottle of bourbon is getting closer by the day

ps Just tickled up 12% as I typed
 
Thanks Barney.
It's nice to have a small holding working out.
The momentum surely has been impressive and hasn't slowed to any great concern.
Considering a bit of profit taking if we reach $0.10 any time quickly.
Cheers.
 
barney said:
Almost vertical now. Decisions decisions
Click to expand...
Almost vertical depends on how you squash a chart.
Here's a 30 day chart.




Quant ratings aren't keeping up.
FWIW, quant rating upgraded to $0.09 around 2 days ago (from $0.07).

Does anyone know of a broker that actually have a recommendation yet?

What happens if one broker decides to put a "strong buy" on it...?

That's the only decision for me at the moment Barney.
I accumulated a small amount this morning on 0.062
Cheers.
 
Ya Think????



Decisions
I know what mine would be!!
 
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frugal.rock said:
That's the only decision for me at the moment Barney. I accumulated a small amount this morning on 0.062
Click to expand...

My post may have been misconstrued Rock. (Fairly common problem when posting with words and no facial expressions attached

I purposefully chose to indicate that any decision is your decision ... nothing more.

ps @Tech ... You would take 50% off the table and tighten the Stop tight enough to strangle a brown snake .... then re-buy at a hefty discount at the appropriate time if/when it drops to the appropriate level.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong Not my Stock, not my decision
 
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