BUD - Buddy Technologies

[barney]

See how it pans out ... needs to hold a tight range on smallish volume to have a chance at the springboard …

I made the executive decision to sell my remaining lot of BUD this morning as I had no way of watching the trading during the day today. (That turned out to be one of my better short term decisions as it got dumped a bit after early trading)

This morning's reaction to the announcement didn't seem to have much follow through so I'm now all out.

It wasn't a big trade but overall caught up a few dollars from some of my other recent less than attractive trades

For the sake of credibility (because that actually matters to me even though it's the internet)

My final Sell earlier this morning (Blanked some numbers for security)

 

[frugal.rock]

Good one Barney!
So trade 2x100k exits @ 0.036... What about the entries B ?


F.Rock

 

[barney]

Good one Barney!
So trade 2x100k exits @ 0.036... What about the entries B ?

Lol … Don't embarrass me FR … You know my Mum don't you! .....

One entry ok/One not so good … (Not uncommon for am accumulation trade, but that may be just an excuse on my behalf lol)

I don't normally kiss and tell if its a good trade but the total profit on this one was nothing to skite about at $700 less brokerage …

That's why I still have a day job

 

[frugal.rock]

I dunno Barney, if all trades averaged out to a profit like that, it would be nice, and I reckon sharing wins and losses is good value. There real situations, real trades, that can be viewed on the charts and we all trade probably for the same main reason. Yeah?
Share the joy, share the sorrow, share the experience... cause are we not the "sum of one's experiences"?

Cheers
F.Rock

 

[barney]

I dunno Barney, if all trades averaged out to a profit like that, it would be nice, and I reckon sharing wins and losses is good value.

Absolutely …. I never knock any trade ending with a green number

I've certainly had my share of very large Red ones that's for sure…

Fortunately not for a while though .. Touch wood

 

[frugal.rock]

Buddy, what's happened!?
Announcement yesterday reducing monthly costs by cutting staff hours and directors fees etc.
Reducing operational costs by up to $375k per month.

Someone took it to heart by dumping.
Circa 35 million shares traded in a fairly short time. No doubt, triggers were hit. Seems to have been supported quite well at the 0.006 to 0.007 level.
I put in a small at market order, thinking that I would be paying 0.007, however I jagged a 0.0065 price, which wasn't an average either. One price.
I guess we don't often see midpoints trades on stocks with 3 decimal places... the systems generally don't show more than 3 decimals, and I know Morningstar reports only show 2 decimals...not very useful for penny speculative stocks.
So, midpoint trades are common practice amongst the HFT circles...
Wondering if @Skate has looked at the coding for midpoints at all?

F.Rock

 

[Skate]

Wondering if @Skate has looked at the coding for midpoints at all?

@frugal.rock I'm unsure what you are asking when you are referring to "midpoint trades". Buy & Sell prices are up to 6 decimal places because of "averaging" - if that helps. I have traded "BUD" in the past but no longer as my price filter only buys when the price is 5 cents & above.

Charts
I'll post up a couple of charts as you may like to enlighten me to what you are seeing that I'm missing.

Buying & Selling pressure chart
The charts are self explanatory, the company BUD is unloved by most "at-the-moment".

Skate.

 

[barney]

I'm unsure what you are asking when you are referring to "midpoint trades". Buy & Sell prices are up to 6 decimal places because of "averaging" - if that helps.

I think that's what @frugal.rock noted Skate ….. there was no averaging on his order but he still got it at a midpoint instead of paying the level registered in the market depth.

No one complains when they get something cheaper of course.

Had an unusual 'non-fill' myself last week. It was the remainder of a standing order which had been 3/4 filled a few days ago.

I was front of the queue at my price level …..A million shares were traded one particular day at MY price, but I didn't get a sniff.

I rang Commsec to ask how this could happen … Their answer was it was a Market Order gazumping me because MO's take preference …..

Of course they take preference, but the market depth/price when the orders went through was a point higher than my order … YET …. they were filled at my price, gazumping me and several other standing orders.

ps It was a buy order according to Commsec and it wasn't a cross trade ….. It seems there are rules for we retailers and other rules we are not privy to

Anyway, I just laughed at what appears to be an "Insider" trade and took it on the chin, as you have to

 

[frugal.rock]

@Skate . Apologies, incorrect terminology in this case, but have seen it called midpoints.
https://www.asx.com.au/services/trading-services/asx-centre-point.htm
When I have time, will read that ASX page... a quick skim, pinging? interests me, because I don't know what exactly it's referring to in the trading case scenario.

The centre point trading isn't available by garden variety trading platforms.
IE; in my case, I couldn't order at 0.0065 as it's a mid or centre point.
However, I believe not being able to is purely a coding and software thing.
An area where I believe you excel at Skate.


The purchase of BUD is a speculative investment, based off recent pre virus activity and product gaining market traction.
I had come to the conclusion it was potentially at its long term trend bottom and reversing...

F.Rock

 

[frugal.rock]

Interesting case you post Barney.
Makes me think there are ways to code trade's that appear to be conditional, but use different methods.
Would love to see the tick data/ course of trades for the day in question. Love a good mystery!

I can understand a centre point trade starting below your sell point, then conditionally bringing the price to your sell point, which would bypass you being 1st in line.
How the price got above your sell point without taking any from your lot is bizarre though.... that would go against all the rules one would think?

Am thinking that we just don't see enough of the decimal places to have any chance to determine what exactly happened...

EG; the trade I disclosed above,
Purchased at one price, 0.0065, no averaging.
The executed orders show executed at 0.006 (1 decimal dropped, no rounding),
the email text for trade/ tax invoice shows 0.007 (decimal dropped and rounded),
the tax invoice shows the true story,
Purchased at 0.00650, no average, single price.
Considering my purchase was ~7% cheaper than what I expected, this "dark arts" area has considerably sparked my interest, but obviously dealing with penny stocks is inherently risky, but apparently potentially profitable if the stability can be managed and exploited...

Wouldn't be surprised to find a SPP offer soon. The cash bleed situation calls for it.

@Skate , my first purchase was on Nov 12. on a PB.
To me, the signs of the heartbeat was returning, trend reversal, volume picking up.
All green at this point on your charts.
It broke out around 2 weeks later.
Took profit too early, timing is still a work in progress.
(Am wondering if my methods are comparable to the "pocket pivot's" method?) Research required on my part though. Cheers.

F.Rock

 

[frugal.rock]

@barney
The link in post #49 should answer your mystery. I suspect Skate has found a new research project...

F.Rock

 

[Skate]

@Skate , my first purchase was on Nov 12. on a PB. To me, the signs of the heartbeat was returning, trend reversal, volume picking up. All green at this point on your charts. It broke out around 2 weeks later. Took profit too early, timing is still a work in progress. (Am wondering if my methods are comparable to the "pocket pivot's" method?) Research required on my part though. I suspect Skate has found a new research project...Cheers.F.Rock

@frugal.rock - Yes, I have moved on & I'm working hard to better prepare for the next few months of trading. Most mechanical system traders now realise that capital protection when there is a run on the markets is futile, no coding can protect you against sharp & swift price movements because all indicators we rely on are lagging.

@frugal.rock your purchase on the 12th November 2019 meets the crude (basic) conditions of a Weekly "Pocket Pivots" my parameter setting would have kept me out of the trade. A Pocket Pivot signal is considered as a raw signal dependant on a list of parameters before an entry position is confirmed. Before you read the "Pocket Pivot Guidelines" below let me give the basics of a weekly Pocket Pivots System. Pocket Pivots should be viewed with regard to the context in which they appear. It's only a few lines of code so I'll explain them in english.

To generate a Weekly Pocket Pivot Signal
1. The Pocket Pivot is the sum of the (Weekly High, Weekly Low & Weekly Close) than averaged by dividing by 3
2. My Resistance level is simply (2 X Pocket Pivot) minus the "weekly low"
3. My Support level is (2 X Pocket Pivot) minus the "weekly high"

A Pivot Buy Signal
To arrive at a Pocket Pivot buy signal first you subtract the support level from the resistance level than subtract the sum of the (Weekly High, Weekly Low & Weekly Close) averaged that has to be greater than the closing price. That sounds double dutch so for an easier explanation - The Pivot Buy Signal is when the close is greater than: Pocket Pivot minus (Resistance level - Support level)

The Chart
The chart of BUD below encapsulates the time period you have suggested "12th Nov 2019" a perfect setup in its raw form.

Daily Pocket Pivot Guidelines
Most traders prefer trading "Pocket Pivots" on a Daily timeline & such the "Pocket Pivots" should be viewed with regard to the context in which they appear. Here are the ten commandments as a guideline:
1. As with base breakouts, proper pocket pivots should emerge within or out of constructive basing patterns.
2. The stock’s fundamentals should be strong, (excellent earnings & ROE)
3. The day’s volume should be larger than the highest down volume day over the prior 10 days.
4. If the pocket pivot occurs in an uptrend after the stock has broken out, it should act constructively around its 10dma.
5. "Pocket pivots" sometimes coincide with base breakouts or with gap ups, @peter2 has explained that this can be thought of as added upside strength should this occur.
6. @frugal.rock this one is important "Do not buy pocket pivots if the overall chart formation is in a multi-month downtrend" (5 months or longer in this case).
7. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock is under a critical moving average such as the 50dma or 200dma.
8. If the Pocket Pivot is well under its 50dma & getting support near the 200dma, it can be regarded as a buy signal provided the base is constructive.
9. Do not buy pocket pivots if the stock formed a ‘V’ where it sells off hard down through the 10dma or 50dma then shoots straight back up in a ‘V’ formation. Such formations are failure prone.
10. Avoid buying pocket pivots that occur after wedging patterns.

There are so many rules it becomes too confusing & that's why a simple code become invaluable.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

Being a manual discretionary trade, am out again.
As said elsewhere, I trust the market like a cut snake at the moment.
Buddy, hasn't bounced to my liking today.
Further, the markets today currently (1pm), remind me of the relative calm before the storm... again.

Inline with discussed info above, Skates analysis is still current. Unloved generally.
I would expect the trend from November period to appear again post virus era if they don't get hit too hard though.
With the US in a worsening state, and the planned roll out in Europe stuffed, it's all about online sales figures.
Probably a fairly grim status if it all drags out for more than 2 months.

F.Rock

 

[frugal.rock]

And again, Buddy is pulling out surprises.
Paused yesterday, then trading halt re a material sales order.
.Debt maturity put off by 12 months and still under debt buy out negotiations.
300m shares off voluntary escrow tomorrow, already quoted on ASX. (shares owned by the manufacturers of the LIFX range and was (part?) consideration on purchase a year ago)
Sales orders received for $3.8 mil of a new product line.
Trading halt should be lifted tomorrow morning.

Am interested to see how this all plays out, after a large volume with SP drop on Friday...

As Skate has said, a sell decision is easily reversed, if indeed it turns out to be a mistake.

F.Rock

 

[frugal.rock]

Update.
Have increased the residual holding on Friday in BUD by 400%, from a speccie position to a firmer position for reasons mostly outlined in previous posts.
While the whole virus thing has hit the SP hard, l would consider that most of the damage is done in that regard.
Having said that, the future lies with sales.
Obviously, physical shop sales results will be dismal, however, with many people stuck at home, no doubt is potential for online sales increasing.
Has shown consolidation signs at the $0.01 level.
Will leave it there, but my thoughts also extend to where the SP has potential to return to after long term downtrend but now with product out to market, product gaining traction and sales regions increasing, albeit temporarily hinded by current covid conditions.
A dent in the SP is considered from next sales figures results.

F.Rock

 

[Skate]

Update. Have increased the residual holding on Friday in BUD by 400%, from a speccie position to a firmer position for reasons mostly outlined in previous posts.

@frugal.rock you are displaying more confidence than me trading BUD where others hold a lesser view of stocks you have mentioned in the "Dump it here" thread. I have joined two comments together as an example (1/2c festering canker of a speccie - who trades this sort of micro crap stock?)

Charts (just for you)
As traders we are all different & that's the very reason why we have a market. One man's trash is another man's treasure. I trade "one" Market, "one" Index within that Market with applied filters - meaning I trade in a "tight range band" of that Index. What you trade or what I trade isn't important - trading where you are comfortable is. I've made a few comments on the charts.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

How rude of me not to thank you for the charts Skate. Much obliged.
I must have been basking in the moment of having a chart posted special for me!?

So Buddy, announcement.
ASX MARKET RELEASE
LIFX Receives A$700k in EU/UK Orders for LIFX White Smart Lights;
European TV Campaign Launches
SUMMARY
● LIFX has received purchase orders to support the initial stocking requirements for LIFX White in Europe totalling nearly A$700k
● This is the single largest order for the European market that the Company has ever received, and further supports the growth goals management has for Europe in 2020
● This order will provide initial stock for the U.K., Italy, France, Germany and Spain, is expected to be replenished with subsequent orders in due course, and is incremental to
orders regularly received for the Company’s remaining range of lights by European retailers
● LIFX lights to be featured in first ever European television ad campaign by Google and Tink.de starting this week.


Sounds like a good start to the European markets.
With recent Microsoft certification on Connector software and plugging/ discounts of LIFX product at Microsoft convention thingy, the products are getting out there.
Buddy SP was showing good signs of long term trend reversal prior to covid19.
My view is, I get a do over. This is for all the missed opportunities of late...
Giddy up Buddy.

F.Rock

 

[Skate]

Buddy SP was showing good signs of long term trend reversal prior to covid19. My view is, I get a do over. This is for all the missed opportunities of late...Giddy up Buddy.

@frugal.rock it appears "The Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy" shares your enthusiasm as it was a buy on the 15th May.

Weekly Chart

It also appears that "The Ducati DAILY Blue Bar Strategy" shares your enthusiasm as well - it was a buy on the 11th May.

Daily Chart

Skate.

 

[Skate]

a chart posted special for me

@frugal.rock this is an updated "Daily Buy & Sell Pressure Chart". It's easy to see BUD is being loved at the moment with the increase in volume & more buying than selling. Lots of green bars are a pleasure to see when you are interested in the stock.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

Great charts Skate. Thanks!
Am sure others will find useful also.

So Buddy,
A big volume day, the highest volume on record, from what I can see.
65 million.
If only I had known it would return to 0.013 today... had a small window of opportunity to jump at .016 but missed it... so I bought some more at 0.013 instead...
I have dreams of selling at 5c so am really trying to resist trading it.

F.Rock