BTA - Biota Holdings

Crash · 25 January 2007

No mention of Relenza. Basically tells of poultry deaths, awaiting tests and quarantining - saying if positive will be second outbreak in a week in Japans top poultry producing region. First ones since 2004 in Japan. Also mentions recent outbreaks in other asian countries.

Crash · 5 February 2007

Again will be interesting to see reaction over the Pommy bird flu situation. See if people take the UK situation more seriously than the Asian breakouts.

Gurgler · 20 April 2007

Was yesterday an indication that there may be breaking out of this sideways movement? Increased volume and MACD is turning.

We'll wait and see. Comments anyone?

Crash · 20 April 2007

There was an announcement of their LANI trials completing in Japan and starting in UK I believe, some buying on the back of this I think.

Gurgler · 26 April 2007

Glaxo Smith Kline advised that royalties to Biota for Relenza have more than doubled in the past quarter ( from $7.3 mil to $16 mil).

Relenza is now the 14th largest product in what must be an impressive product mix. Augurs well for the future.

motorway · 26 April 2007

Looks to be a valid Jump
To set up the next leg to $xxxx

I thought the action in the last trend channel was very transparent

Been waiting for this to sort itself out.. Posted this chart earlier on reefcap

I felt that the market Gyrations at the time might delay the move..

There was little given back in the reaccumulation range..
When a stock comes to a hinge
definitive action might be expected..

A lot of Volume in the Jump

The backup now is the crucial thing..
I need a successful backup to confirm the jump
downside appears minimal

The volume could mean all overhead supply in this vicinity has been cleared.

There was certainly a dry up of activity where the stock came to a hinge.
The trading range was good preperation and was I thought very strong.
The whole range nearly can be defined as accumulation

motorway

Dutchy3 · 28 April 2007

Hi motor ... and the volume too. I prefer a weekly time frame and good to see is working on the daily as well ... stocks jump on volume from areas of resistance for reasons, the announcement aside. Lets see what it can do now

eternit · 28 April 2007

Hi Guys,

Do you think the price of BTA could go over $3 in the next few months?

Also there has not being any dividend payouts for BTA this year?

Sean K · 28 April 2007

eternit said:
Hi Guys, Do you think the price of BTA could go over $3 in the next few months?

Eternit, how could anyone possibly reasonably answer this? I'd invite anyone to provide a response using some quality FA or TA, but it'd really be a task. ANY price targets must come with detailed analysis. Cheers, kennas

eternit · 28 April 2007

kennas said:
Eternit, how could anyone possibly reasonably answer this? I'd invite anyone to provide a response using some quality FA or TA, but it'd really be a task. ANY price targets must come with detailed analysis. Cheers, kennas

hi kennas,

Can TA and FA analysis help determine an approximation share price for BTA in the next few months? If so how can i go about doing FA and TA?

Thanks

Sean K · 28 April 2007

Well, with fundamentals you might be able to look at their inlows of royalties from Relenza, or what GSK might have to pay them in this law suit and how much this might be all worth to them. With technical analysis you need to look at the chart and make price projections using any of the accepted methods such as EW, fibonacci, support and resistance lines, or even Gann.

Just making a general guestimate on a price target withough using some facts and figures isn't an acceptable method of share valuation.

One thing you could definately look at is what the law suit could be worth to them. Try googling it.

You should go to their web site for some detailed info. There are some analyst reports there putting some valuations on the company. TaylorCollison has a $2.21 12 mth target for example. Read through these reports to get a feel for how they come up with the valuation.

Cheers,
kennas

http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021003&subpage=1021136

eternit · 28 April 2007

kennas said:
Well, with fundamentals you might be able to look at their inlows of royalties from Relenza, or what GSK might have to pay them in this law suit and how much this might be all worth to them. With technical analysis you need to look at the chart and make price projections using any of the accepted methods such as EW, fibonacci, support and resistance lines, or even Gann.

Just making a general guestimate on a price target withough using some facts and figures isn't an acceptable method of share valuation.

One thing you could definately look at is what the law suit could be worth to them. Try googling it.

You should go to their web site for some detailed info. There are some analyst reports there putting some valuations on the company. TaylorCollison has a $2.21 12 mth target for example. Read through these reports to get a feel for how they come up with the valuation.

Cheers,
kennas

http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021003&subpage=1021136

Cool thanks. Good info there.

btw the law suit you talking about, this is the one which started in 04?

motorway · 28 April 2007

eternit said:
hi kennas,

Can TA and FA analysis help determine an approximation share price for BTA in the next few months? If so how can i go about doing FA and TA?

Thanks

If you have a look at My chart from a TA perspective..

You can see how good the quality of the trend was..

In the uptrend channel....Look how the volume was in complete harmony .
price and volume expanded together..Volume occurred at the bottom of all the small waves creating impetus and momentum..

Demand continually overcame supply... All We had to do was be in harmony with the trend...

A trend like that gathers a following... It will last as long as that following is maintained... What finally happened in this case was that the buyers, the demand became less willing to reach higher .. The sellers had to start meeting the buyers The trend terminated into a trading range... Some profit taking occurred...

Ok a trading range if it is active is another type of trend .. It also gathers a following.. on balance there is buying at the bottom and selling at the top

An active trading range builds the energy for the next move
A technical position is being built.. And a lot of contingent orders are building on the sidelines... ( That is Why the Volume surges ..All those wanting to buy or sell waiting for their signal )..

Now do We judge that this trading range is accumulation going to lead to a new markup ...Or Do We see distribution occurring..

Where did the volume dry up ?
Where did price react with vigor from ?
Were there signs of demand or supply taking the initiative ?

How much of the previous markup was given back while the sellers were meeting the buyers at their prices in this trading range ?

The swings in the trading range are testing support.. Building that contingency and transferring ownership ( sellers cashing in accrued profits to buyers looking for future profits ).. A technical position is being created
that will reflect the time frames , cost price and information of those participating ... A line of least resistance is being created that with a confirmed Jump and backup will soon gather a following..

In a sense the smartest money bought at the bottom of the trading range
That is why it was the selling that became exhausted...

The effect of news of the response also reveals A strong technical position..

All things being equal If We analyse the swings in the trading range We can produce a dead reckoning price target ( A target like something being aimed at Not a prediction ).. Buyers who have been buying will hold for higher prices the sellers have already been left behind and a new markup will also build momentum and a gather a further following..

I can generate two such targets.... a conservative one of just over $2.00
and a higher one of just under $3.00 ...

They suggest that taking the trade/investment is a sound proposition
Good strong action producing a strong technical position.. Like a high pressure system,,

Once the trend is underway... We just again have to keep in harmony like the previous markup.... look out for signs of change.. Also expect other "stepping Stone" trading ranges maybe one just over $2.00..

However It is dead reckoning.. We can see the swings that price has made in the range testing demand and supply... I have seen it explained like a hammer thrower spinning around before He let's go and throws..
Once in flight ( once a markup is under way ) Anything can then happen to completely change the risk reward..

At the moment We have things looking good...The backup is occurring atm ..

And the targets are at higher and not lower prices..
On the archery field We don't want to be the targets

We can see the alternation larger and smaller ...
Price activity is continually building ranges ( seeking equilibrium )
building a potential that gives way to trends ( seeking a new equilibrium )
even within the uptrend channel

cheers Dutch... yes the weekly is very important..

motorway

eternit · 28 April 2007

motorway said:
If you have a look at My chart from a TA perspective..

You can see how good the quality of the trend was..

In the uptrend channel....Look how the volume was in complete harmony .
price and volume expanded together..Volume occurred at the bottom of all the small waves creating impetus and momentum..

Demand continually overcame supply... All We had to do was be in harmony with the trend...

A trend like that gathers a following... It will last as long as that following is maintained... What finally happened in this case was that the buyers, the demand became less willing to reach higher .. The sellers had to start meeting the buyers The trend terminated into a trading range... Some profit taking occurred...

Ok a trading range if it is active is another type of trend .. It also gathers a following.. on balance there is buying at the bottom and selling at the top

An active trading range builds the energy for the next move
A technical position is being built.. And a lot of contingent orders are building on the sidelines... ( That is Why the Volume surges ..All those wanting to buy or sell waiting for their signal )..

Now do We judge that this trading range is accumulation going to lead to a new markup ...Or Do We see distribution occurring..

Where did the volume dry up ?
Where did price react with vigor from ?
Were there signs of demand or supply taking the initiative ?

How much of the previous markup was given back while the sellers were meeting the buyers at their prices in this trading range ?

The swings in the trading range are testing support.. Building that contingency and transferring ownership ( sellers cashing in accrued profits to buyers looking for future profits ).. A technical position is being created
that will reflect the time frames , cost price and information of those participating ... A line of least resistance is being created that with a confirmed Jump and backup will soon gather a following..

In a sense the smartest money bought at the bottom of the trading range
That is why it was the selling that became exhausted...

The effect of news of the response also reveals A strong technical position..

All things being equal If We analyse the swings in the trading range We can produce a dead reckoning price target ( A target like something being aimed at Not a prediction ).. Buyers who have been buying will hold for higher prices the sellers have already been left behind and a new markup will also build momentum and a gather a further following..

I can generate two such targets.... a conservative one of just over $2.00
and a higher one of just under $3.00 ...

They suggest that taking the trade/investment is a sound proposition
Good strong action producing a strong technical position.. Like a high pressure system,,

Once the trend is underway... We just again have to keep in harmony like the previous markup.... look out for signs of change.. Also expect other "stepping Stone" trading ranges maybe one just over $2.00..

However It is dead reckoning.. We can see the swings that price has made in the range testing demand and supply... I have seen it explained like a hammer thrower spinning around before He let's go and throws..
Once in flight ( once a markup is under way ) Anything can then happen to completely change the risk reward..

At the moment We have things looking good...The backup is occurring atm ..

And the targets are at higher and not lower prices..
On the archery field We don't want to be the targets

We can see the alternation larger and smaller ...
Price activity is continually building ranges ( seeking equilibrium )
building a potential that gives way to trends ( seeking a new equilibrium )
even within the uptrend channel

cheers Dutch... yes the weekly is very important..

motorway

Thanks for the explanation

It was very informative and made a lot of sense too. I will keep an eye on the chart and lets see what happens

Crash · 2 May 2007

Good to see someone give this a kick in the guts today, peeking over 1.80. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Crash · 7 May 2007

Pushing into the high 1.80s this morning after some positive press in the Herald Sun yesterday and finishing last week at 1.835. I believe the target quoted in the HS article was 2.10 on the back of the last Relenza royalties update. How quick it can get up there is the question after being fairly slow for some time.

Gurgler · 7 May 2007

The graph is certainly looking a little healthier - although only regesering a 13.6% rise since news broke on 26 April.

The move to acquire CSIRO's Relenza royalty rights (ann May 3) should maintain the upward momentum.

Gurgler · 17 May 2007

Gurgler said:
The move to acquire CSIRO's Relenza royalty rights (ann May 3) should maintain the upward momentum.

However I was wrong, it hasn't! Today opening at $1.715, it seems the market has not appreciated the long term positives inherent in that move. I guess this is not entirely unexpected given that it is a Biotech stock.

This out today on FN Arena supports my confidence that there is a brighter future lying ahead:

Are Investors Overlooking Upside Potential At Biota?
FN Arena News - May 17 2007

By Chris Shaw

Biota (BTA) has announced it will buy CSIRO out of the royalty agreement the two groups had in place with respect to sales of anti-flu drug Relenza and Intersuisse suggests this is supportive of the stock and its Buy rating.

In the broker's view there are two positives from the move, as it now increases the company's net royalty from Relenza sales to 6.75% from 6.5% previously, while it also means it will not have to share any royalties that it may receive as a result of litigation with GSK over that company's distribution of Relenza. This potential settlement offers some upside risk to earnings for the company, so the new deal means it gets to keep all of any benefits that flow through.

Also supporting its positive view is Relenza sales have been increasing strongly, the broker now estimating it will receive royalty payments from GSK this year of as much as $43m, which it suggests is also not currently factored in to the share price.

This strong growth looks set to continue, as GSK has indicated production capacity will double to 30 million units from 15 million previously, so Intersuisse likes the idea of Biota increasing its royalty share by buying our the CSIRO now rather than potentially having to pay more later.

On the broker's estimates it has the stock trading on 13.3x earnings this year and only 8.9x in FY08, which suggests Biota is cheap relative to the broader market. Add in the upside potential from higher royalties and a potential successful settlement and the stock looks cheap in the broker's view.

Intersuisse has a share price target of $2.58, which is close to the middle of its valuation range of $2.10 to $3.13. The stock is not widely covered, the FNArena database showing none of the leading brokers actively research the stock.

Shares in Biota this morning are weaker and at 11.30am were down 2.5c at $1.72, which compares to a range over the past 12 months of $1.13 to $1.90.

Of course, as always DYOR!

Crash · 31 May 2007

What are the thoughts on todays profit announcement, for mine thought they might have upped the numbers for the last quarter? I guess it is somethign like a $29 million turnaround. Hopefully this can continue to grow now.

Dutchy3 · 31 May 2007

Hi Crash - from my TA perspective I bought this a month or so ago ... the profit turnaround is timely .... took a bit of a run and then fell back so I need this one to now proceed through 1.90ish for my analysis to hold correct.

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