BTA - Biota Holdings

[Prospector]

I have been following BTA from 50c, purchased as many as I could with the SPP at 78c; have traded them at around $2.20 mark then bought in again at $1.45 as well as holding on to the SPP shares. BTA is very much a day trader stock, as well as long term for those who feel that as soon as the litigation process is finalised, it may soar on the back of million dollar orders. GSK only have to report annually in March, and are not releasing any more than they have to, presumably because of the court case. The SP rises when a country releases its order quota independently of GSK process. For instance, many feel that the US may release details of the stockpile so on that day the price will soar. It happened in Jan when another order was announced.

I have the feeling that tomorrow it may well consolidate though. Time will tell

It takes much patience to follow this stock but it is an exciting ride!

 

[chansw]

I found the following two interesting news.

[SIZE=+2]From NineMSN Market News yesterday[/SIZE]

"Small-cap biotechnology company, Biota Holdings Ltd. (BTA.AX), jumped 11 percent to A$1.61 on speculation it was scouting for acquisitions in the United States. A Biota spokesman told Reuters the company does not comment on market speculation. Trade volume was near average levels at 2.8 million shares."

[SIZE=+2]From The Australian[/SIZE]

Flu drug makes an amazing recovery

IT is the dead-cat drug that just won't die.

The commercial revival of GlaxoSmithKline's Australian-developed influenza drug, Relenza, was given local form last week with the formal re-opening of one production line at the pharmaceutical giant's factory in Melbourne.

The first of two "new" production lines for Relenza, which will cost about $30 million, was formally opened by Health Minister Tony Abbott and GSK's local managing director, Paul Lirette. It is hard to know which of the two would have wanted to be there less.

Certainly both kept their visit to the Boronia factory very quiet indeed. News of the successful opening ceremony is on neither the Health Minister's website nor, more amazingly, GSK's.

That might reflect the fact that Abbott, Lirette and the international executive hosts at GSK are very recent converts to the idea that Relenza is worth anyone's hard-earned cash. Relenza's return is an obvious by-product of a global hysteria over bird flu and the subsequent fear that we could face a new global flu pandemic.

The belated embrace of Relenza by the federal Government was confirmed on December 16 with its order for 1.8 million "additional courses" of the home-grown flu drug. Additional indeed. Until that order, Australia's Relenza reserves stood at a grand total of 24,570 courses.

Not that we stood unprepared. Even though Australian taxpayers effectively spent $247 million on the development of Relenza, the Government ended up building its $555 million pandemic defence around Relenza's dominant competitor, Roche's Tamiflu.

So why did we spend $114 million on a Tamiflu stockpile? Most likely because Relenza's owners, GSK, had demonstrated such a palpable lack of confidence in the safety, effectiveness and value of the drug.

To get a clear idea of the extent of GSK's failed faith, just grab a copy of the company's opening defence of a $430 million lawsuit launched against the multinational by its Australian partner in the drug, Biota Holdings.

Biota was the first corporate supporter of Relenza - and it still shares with the CSIRO a 7 per cent royalty from sales of the drug. Up until mid-way through 2005, that meant very little.

This is because in September 2001, without telling Biota, GSK quietly decided to withdraw the drug and to suspend research in a new form of the drug.

Biota claims it did not know until the start of 2004 flu season that GSK had dropped Relenza. It maintains that the first and only formal confirmation of GSK was delivered in the 2005 defence.

Lodged with the Victorian Supreme Court in May 2005, the GSK defence reflects extensively on US concerns about Relenza's side-effects and the views of European governments that the drug was "poor value for money".

And GSK seems to itself conclude that its drug should be no one's choice for a pandemic stockpile.

The document twice warns: "Relenza is less suitable than Tamiflu for stockpiling by governments and other authorities in order to cope with an influenza epidemic or pandemic."

If that is the case, someone should perhaps make a call to the French Government, which recently placed an order for 9 million courses of Relenza. It might not come as music to Tony Abbott's ears either. After all, his order will cost more than $40 million.

To be fair to GSK, it does seem that its view of Relenza has changed profoundly since the Biota defence was written.

The best illustration of the change of heart came in October last year in a market briefing by the man widely regarded as the chief executioner of Relenza, GSK's chief executive J.P. Garnier.

While still openly wary of Relenza's delivery system (it is inhaled, unlike Tamiflu, which is a pill), Garnier agreed that the company just could not produce the stuff fast enough to meet the demand and said GSK had kick-started research on a way of delivering the drug and was looking at reviving research into the preventative form of the drug.

For all that, Garnier's tone was hardly celebratory. And that probably reflects the unusual corporate paradox he finds himself in. Garnier was intimately involved in the disappearance of Relenza, a decision that is at the heart of Biota's $430 million claim.

The dead drug's revived popularity could add billions to GSK's revenues. But it also seems to confirm Biota's view that its pharmaceutical competitor acted too hastily in trying to kill their drug.

 

[britishcarfreak]

I'm new to charting and trying to get a handle on what the attached chart means. What's the deal with a triangle like this? Does it mean that it's high risk and could go either way?

 

[phoenixrising]

BCF,

I'm no expert either. Looks like a desending triangle, which suggests a breakout down. On the other hand a similar desending triangle to mid Jan broke up so could go either way

One to monitor and see which way it goes

 

[mr meathead]

it's gonna run

Relenza looking more and more like the only antiviral to be relied on in the event of a pandemic flu. Active minutes after administered-unlike tamiflu which takes precious hrs to kick in and resistence probs as well.

 

[Ken]

Bird Flu Season coming up again will BTA fly again?

i remember around last september/october Biota went to boom town when bird flu was in the press....

If bird flu is once again a problem would this increase the price of the stock. it seems to have flattened out aroun $1.20. The company is fairly cashed up and recent reports seem positive.

Long term where do people this kind of company, and in the short term what will the direction be.

 

[Ken]

i beleive biota have made it as a company especially in their sector.

they are cashed up, have a product, and once these new clinical trials are completed they will go further and further.

The graph has picked up a heap of momentum and is looking like it could start a good run on. steady releasements of solid information is benefiting them.

definatley a stock for the future. even if holding 1000 units. Potentially could be huge..

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

i beleive biota have made it as a company especially in their sector.

they are cashed up, have a product, and once these new clinical trials are completed they will go further and further.

The graph has picked up a heap of momentum and is looking like it could start a good run on. steady releasements of solid information is benefiting them.

definatley a stock for the future. even if holding 1000 units. Potentially could be huge..

Ken I think your dead right ,they are huge especially when Relenza was about to be passed through FDA way back and silly me buys @$9.15!!!!! Thank God it dropped back to 45cents!....sorry could not resist the snipe ......but fortunately I managed through patience to weed myself out of the issue, and eventually get to India with the proceeds!

 

[Sean K]

BTA broke out yesterday in a general up trend. Good news for BTA holder IMO. Might consolidate for a bit before pushing on through next resistance at $1.65 ish.

I was trading this last year during the knee jerking Bird Flu pandemic fear period and made some very handy beer money.

Maybe it's 'investment' material now?

(not holding)

 

[Prospector]

Those heady days last year were good for many of us. I think that they have now got their act together as a research and development company, and the relenza story is still to unfold. Although the vaccine makers must be getting closer to a prevention now, which is why I am also in CSL.

 

[Crash]

What will the way forward for BTA be? New research breakthroughs, winning the GSK litigation case or actual cash returns for Relenza? Woult BTA start paying dividends from the Relenza royalties or will it always spill back to more research?

 

[Sean K]

What will the way forward for BTA be? New research breakthroughs, winning the GSK litigation case or actual cash returns for Relenza? Woult BTA start paying dividends from the Relenza royalties or will it always spill back to more research?

Isn't the potential litigation worth more to BTA than their current market cap?

Why would GSK pay them out as opposed to just buying them out?

All good for BTA, maybe.

Breakout ID earlier confirmed and now potentially going again.

Why didn't I buy back in?

(still not holding)

 

[Crash]

I assume if GSK think they are going to lose they will settle for something much less than the litigation claims - which Biota will accept. Just my guess. At any rate they will continue to drag this out as long as possible.

I will be sticking with mine for a while yet anyway I think, but it has been a stock that always drifts downwards when nothing is happening, so thats my biggest concern.

 

[Crash]

Biota back up 1.68 after hangnig around 1.61 for a few weeks. Is this likely just on the back of Bird Flu news from Vietnam in the last couple of days?

 

[Prospector]

I think there must be an announcement coming, BTA hasnt risen like this for several months. And there has always been reports of bird flu around.

When exactly does litigation start? Maybe GSK are caving in? Who knows

 

[Crash]

Dunno seems to have drifted back down again, there did seems to be a larger amount of news on the bird flu in those couple of days?

 

[Crash]

Will see today if the new news of Bird Flu in Hungary and bird flu preparations in Japan will push it up.



I am holding.

 

[spottygoose]

Will see today if the new news of Bird Flu in Hungary and bird flu preparations in Japan will push it up.
.

I have read the news on Hungary but do you have a link to the story on the preparations in Japan?

Biota had a nice rise yesterday and I think it might be the beginning of another run into the high 160's.

Everything is starting to fall into place. Negative news on Tamiflu, higher ratios of relenza being ordered, bird flu continuing it's march, Lani and other drugs in development and of course the settlement with GSK.

Cheers (I hold)

 

[Crash]

http://media.fairfax.com.au/?sy=age&category=Breaking News&rid=25256

As requested (it is video) and you may need to register to view.

 

[spottygoose]

http://media.fairfax.com.au/?sy=age&category=Breaking News&rid=25256

As requested (it is video) and you may need to register to view.

Thanks Crash unfortunately I couldn't get it to load. Anything of interest in there re Relenza?