- Joined
- 10 July 2004
- Posts
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- 3
Brendan, not so funereal next time, more fun, less real. !
PS I've got 50c to say that it's Malcolm and not Brendan who takes the Libs to the next election.
I mean even the Libs will be bored of Brendan in a year or two you'd think.
A huge problem for them, I feel, is also the reason they elected Nelson in the first place. There will be much talk from the Libs about how they've listened to the electorate, amended their wicked ways. If this were true, they wouldof (be calm my inner pedant) elected Turnbull in the first place. The problem is that a majority within the party firmly believe in the platform they went to the election with. Either they stick to this politically suicidal path or, as is likely, give Turnbull the nod and try and sell a platform that few of them believe in.
Yes, they could.If they try going down the path of forcing a dissolution out of sheer bloody-mindedness, they might actually lose ANOTHER 10-15 seats (you know, the ones that used to be safe but are now marginal)! Surely they won't go that far.....they couldn't be that dumb.... could they?
AJ
Hi Skint
I disagree. Nelson was the next leader they have to have. Safe hands.
Turnbull has fantastic potential. But he's still very much rookie material. You don't make your No 1 Draft selection from last season, captain of the team before they earn it.
Plenty of sporting players and politicians have been promoted on the basis of "promise and potential" without every realising it.
At present Turnbull is still a loose cannon - his intentions are good but the style, delivery and street smarts are still developing.
Wasn't Latham voted in by Labor over Beasley on the basis of choosing fresh, progressive ideas over safe and predictable??
In 2 years time Turnbull will look back and see that this choice was ideal for him. He can sit back and cement himself as one of the Liberal powerplayers in the position of Treasurer. He has the benefit of being up against Swan who although tries hard is no great parlimentary combatant. Costello usually found his barbs no more annoying than being hit by fairy floss.
The Liberals can hardly lose. If Nelson performs well and the polls recover - great. If he doesn't perform they can swap to Turnbull (which deep down everyone expects anyway!!). At least this way they can keep their powder dry. The worse thing would be to throw Turnbull in and watch their great hope either slowly drown or explode ("do a Latham").
Bishop is OK - will be good to have someone against Gillard who has been very hands-on in the Education portfolio.
Duckman
The temptation will be very high for Rudd to call a Double Dissolution, if the Libs try twice to block any of his "mandated" agendas in the senate. He has indicated as much in his warnings.
The reality we have seen is that the so-called "Dream Team" of Howard & Costello got smashed by the voters. So, I wouldn't like the chances of a Liberal party in disarray, led by flip-flopper Nelson & his sidekick Bishop peddling Howard's policies all over again, of getting anywhere near the pathetic vote they did under Howard.
If they try going down the path of forcing a dissolution out of sheer bloody-mindedness, they might actually lose ANOTHER 10-15 seats (you know, the ones that used to be safe but are now marginal)! Surely they won't go that far.....they couldn't be that dumb.... could they?
AJ
Another three months of that type of negative Union/industrial relations publicity(expected), another interest rate hike (expected), a couple of months of "fuel price" watching by Rudd's committee (announced), continued increased inflation (expected) and no visable improvement in the country's health system(???) and you are still expecting a further swing of 10-15 seats!!!???
Your man did very well on 24th of November but you've forgotten who he has become...."The Hunter" is now "The Hunted".
Duckman
...the temptation will be very high for Rudd to call a Double Dissolution, if the Libs try twice to block any of his "mandated" agendas in the senate. He has indicated as much in his warnings. Going into an election against Howard & Costello was one thing, but fair go - against Nelson and Bishop with only a few months prep.. it would be a slaughter....
...
AJ
In the current warming political climate (pun intended), a double dissolution would be a tactic of last resort for the ALP government: with twice the number of senators to be elected, the quota is halved and would result in something like 10 or 12 Green senators, as well a few curiosities from the religious spectrum. It could even be Pauline Hanson's return ticket.
The ALP has a sound majority in the House of Reps. They might have a managable senate. A lot depends on the final count for senate this last election (I'm expecting the Greens to pick up the sixth seat in Victoria to foil the ALP's expectation). They've got an outside chance in Queensland (at the expense of a Liberal expectation), and if that falls their way it it would change the senate dynamics - the ALP would not need to impress Family First senator Fielding, they would only need to impress the Greens and independant Xenophon.
Notwithstanding suprise outcomes, the ALP may still find they have a senate they can live with. The senators in the middle all have a common interest to act 'responsibly'.
We may even yet see the miraculous emergence of the National party as something other than a Liberal rump, though that would mean the reversal of decades of entrenched political (hrrp-hhmm) 'culture'.
Disclaimer: I'm a Greenie.
If this occurs, I expect FF will have to be thrown a bone of some sort for their support. Parlimentary exorcisms or something. Very strange mob, FF.
I always get nervous when 1 issue parties - like the Greens - get anywhere near the balance of power. Not one issue - even supposed climate change - is large enough to be addressed in a vacuum.
As far as climate change is concerned, the Earth may well be warming, but there is not enough evidence to prove that it is caused by Man, or that it is naturally irreversible , despite the hysteria, and may well be just a cyclical event. You should have a balanced view if you propose to change the economics of the World on such scant evidence.
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