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who?
Bottom picking the All Ordinaries
- Thread starter Snakey
- Start date
who?
Here are some. Their chart looks ugly. but the value is there.
below cash value IPR, CCI, for risk control reason I can not have more. My fund is limited.CFE a few days ago when the price is 65c. right now it is back.
the market is very abnormal. I think we should start a thread for stock whose market cap below cash in hand?
ridiculous, I have never seen this happened before. it is illogical as well. I do not know whether it is the case in 1960s?
Look at the market, if it tanks straite down then it ens up being oversold to quickly and we must see a fast run back up If it is not a slingshot into the bottom then we must have a sideways period of accumulation if we are to have a bottom.
Anyways, people who talk about 3000 and 1929 are crackers.
Super money is forced into the market every payday now and it is a substantial amount of money. Effectively it can only go into cash property or shares and we all know that the real earners are shares and property so they are the ways to go.
The major funds are currently trading in the commoditeis arenas, at some point when they decide to pull out of their they will come back over the shares and when they do it must go up.
There is just oo much money(credit) continually being pumped into the markets these days to suffer humungus falls like 1929 and 1987 etc. Those days are gone and will not happen like that again unless the protections put in place are removed to allow for such things.
Anyways, people who talk about 3000 and 1929 are crackers.
Super money is forced into the market every payday now and it is a substantial amount of money. Effectively it can only go into cash property or shares and we all know that the real earners are shares and property so they are the ways to go.
The major funds are currently trading in the commoditeis arenas, at some point when they decide to pull out of their they will come back over the shares and when they do it must go up.
There is just oo much money(credit) continually being pumped into the markets these days to suffer humungus falls like 1929 and 1987 etc. Those days are gone and will not happen like that again unless the protections put in place are removed to allow for such things.
MichaelD
Not fooled by randomness
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Everyone mainstream now expects the market to go lower. That's good enough for me to suggest that the vast bulk of the bottoming is done with and it is time for the smart money to go buying again from the punters now that prices are back at wholesale levels.
I should of course point out that declaring tops and bottoms has no effect whatsoever on my trading - it simply chugs along following plans. Remember, I don't believe there is any predictive value in FA or TA.
This is pure entertainment.
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Somehow I don't get excited by looking at forecasts from chicken footprints (charts). Why? Because chartists didn't stop prices falling when 911 happened. You could draw all over your charts and the market just ignored them with grin. "Sorry trend line, was I supposed to rest here and turn around?"
So what is the MAIN fundamental reason for the fall this time? OIL! OIL! OIL! When ever OIL price stops increasing, the ALLORDS will stop falling ... NO BOTTOM in view!!!
So what is the MAIN fundamental reason for the fall this time? OIL! OIL! OIL! When ever OIL price stops increasing, the ALLORDS will stop falling ... NO BOTTOM in view!!!
Sean K
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lol, on a role lately eh Kennas!
Sean K
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Nice change of avatar MRC. Put my $2 on black!
Trembling Hand
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What a silly Post!! It just shows there are still idiots who want something to be wrong even if they don't understand what the hell they are commenting on.
As for a preferred "chicken foot print" I have been thinking about what would be the Best scenario. If I could order something I would ask for an accumulation pattern rather than a "V" or "W" bottom. Something like the patterns below. It would give time for the SO strong shorts to orderly cover their positions.
Note the bottom pattern is actually the topping pattern from last year turned upside down.
Attachments
Well said TH - you have a great website and I have learnt a lot from it.
NotaDuck - the following quote from John Carter in his "Mastering the Trade" interests me:
"Many day traders I talk to ask about the wisdom in swing trading. The biggest question I get involves the risk of being exposed to an overnight position. The most common question is, "What if there is another terrorist attack?" After trading the markets for nearly 20 years, there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of - there is always somebody who knows about the upcoming market move and this person is in the process of getting positioned for it. After the crash on 9/11, one of the ways the government tracked down terrorist cells was to look at all the brokerage accounts that showed heavy short selling in the weeks before the attack. This led to multiple arrests, as people who knew about the upcoming attacks had been shorting insurance companies and airlines aggressively." He goes on the describe the weakening technical picture in the market prior to 9/11, and then does the same for the Oct 19 crash of 1929.
Refer to charts as "chicken footprints" at your peril.
Cheers, Wrong'un.
NotaDuck - the following quote from John Carter in his "Mastering the Trade" interests me:
"Many day traders I talk to ask about the wisdom in swing trading. The biggest question I get involves the risk of being exposed to an overnight position. The most common question is, "What if there is another terrorist attack?" After trading the markets for nearly 20 years, there is one thing I am absolutely convinced of - there is always somebody who knows about the upcoming market move and this person is in the process of getting positioned for it. After the crash on 9/11, one of the ways the government tracked down terrorist cells was to look at all the brokerage accounts that showed heavy short selling in the weeks before the attack. This led to multiple arrests, as people who knew about the upcoming attacks had been shorting insurance companies and airlines aggressively." He goes on the describe the weakening technical picture in the market prior to 9/11, and then does the same for the Oct 19 crash of 1929.
Refer to charts as "chicken footprints" at your peril.
Cheers, Wrong'un.
Trembling Hand
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refer to my post in the Mkt Ind Thread
tops look like tops because of HOPE
bottoms look like bottoms because of FEAR
A bottom is not a top "upside down"
But we did have a lot of fear already
motorway
So motorway all bottoms are Vs are they? All bottoms are fear driven without accumulation????????
how do you explain the first bottoming pattern??
By distinguishing between the bottom
and the resumption of of an uptrend
before and after the "bottom"
there can be accumulation
sometimes for a long time
sometimes there might be nothing much after the bottom
If I make a film of anything
eg walking
and then play it backwards
It is not the same as the way real walking backwards is...
same with throwing a ball
played backwards it is not the same as really catching one
A top is different to a bottom
though that does not mean flipping charts
is very valuable
eg
here is the top of CNP
it slid on hope for over a year
The chart is flipped
the breakout ( down ) was where the realization and fear
took hold
on a relative chart
the different dynamics are even more stark..
nothing is always or absolute
but fear is different to hope.
and tops and bottoms have been recognized as different
eg in P&F why are low pole reversals more reliable than high pole reversals
zones of fear and hope create different dynamics
eg why does the B%
bull or bear mkt spend most of the time above 50% compared to below
Hope can last and last ( till you go down with the ship )
Fear and Panic exhausts and is self limiting
It kills quick.
motorway
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Trembling Hand
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Motorway as usual lots of words but no answer to my question. The top chart I posted WAS an accumulation pattern that WAS a bottom. But of course that doesn't happen
nothing is always or absolute
in other words NO
But
The distinction between tops and bottoms
I find useful
and along the lines in my post
a useful point of departure
suggestive I would think
befores are not the mirror image of afters
accumulation is not the mirror of distribution
Fear is different to hope
and no doubt we could put a whole spectrum of emotions
that unfold in between.
eg what precedes hope ?
what follows fear ?
but that would take too many words
what ever way you capture opportunity
may you prosper
I would also distinguish
a base ,both, in terms of time
but also work on the "figure chart"
time does stop
when hibernation
is in play
and NO work gets done
so how big is a base really ?
depends on how you measure those V bottoms
time or work
too many words
motorway
subaru69
Just keep swimming...
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This is all getting a bit complicated:
I'm sure this must fit in somewhere.
"Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering." - Yoda
:I'm sure this must fit in somewhere.
"Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering." - Yoda
Thought I might continue this thread.
The question is - have we put in a bottom in the markets for a week or more?
Most said no, don't be stupid, look at oil.
Some said yes, my argument was because the USD has popped up.
So, what's happened so far?
XAO still looks bad, but I put that down to lower BHP from lower copper and oil.
HSI looked good, 400 point rally this morning.
Nikkei managed 180 points up.
K200 managed 3 points up.
USD still climbing.
Globex ES up 5 points.
Oil down to 143.50 from 146.
Gold down to $925 from nearly $950.
These are, ofcourse, only hints of a mood change, what do others think?
The question is - have we put in a bottom in the markets for a week or more?
Most said no, don't be stupid, look at oil.
Some said yes, my argument was because the USD has popped up.
So, what's happened so far?
XAO still looks bad, but I put that down to lower BHP from lower copper and oil.
HSI looked good, 400 point rally this morning.
Nikkei managed 180 points up.
K200 managed 3 points up.
USD still climbing.
Globex ES up 5 points.
Oil down to 143.50 from 146.
Gold down to $925 from nearly $950.
These are, ofcourse, only hints of a mood change, what do others think?
I think the road down is going to be a slow and hard road. Probably will end in a ridiculously low spike somewhere in the next two to four months before rebounding sharply. a lot of cheap stocks now but i think fear will drive them lower. It will take a lot of time to shake out all the scaredy cats.
I just wish the market had a fast forward button so we could get to the good times a lot sooner. Don't see a bottom for this year yet.
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I personally, agree Broadway.
I think it is time for a short-term rally (will probably happen too with my inability to find any long set-ups and being overweight in shorts)!
On another note, I have been looking at quiet a lot of short set-ups lately and have seemed to notice accumulation taking place in many of them, with a heap of major charts approaching longer-term support on the daily.
Not to mention, the broader markets in the US are not looking so bad, in comparison to the DOW.
Another bounce coming over the next month or two, before it continues it's waves down to 4000 by mid next year. That being said, this is traditionally a poor performing time of the year and of the month, as far as seasonality. But in this kind of environment, does any of that matter? It is a emotions boiling pot out there at the moment!
I think it is time for a short-term rally (will probably happen too with my inability to find any long set-ups and being overweight in shorts)!
On another note, I have been looking at quiet a lot of short set-ups lately and have seemed to notice accumulation taking place in many of them, with a heap of major charts approaching longer-term support on the daily.
Not to mention, the broader markets in the US are not looking so bad, in comparison to the DOW.
Another bounce coming over the next month or two, before it continues it's waves down to 4000 by mid next year. That being said, this is traditionally a poor performing time of the year and of the month, as far as seasonality. But in this kind of environment, does any of that matter? It is a emotions boiling pot out there at the moment!
