Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Bottom Picking August 2011

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ROE said:
I pick HVN for asset play
I reckon price is cheap, not as good as operator like JBH
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Only fear with that is that retail bricks and morter may only be good for apartments if the shopping trend sustains.
 
The kind of stocks you pick now should depend upon the evaluation of the crash.

Is this a short term crisis caused by irrational idiots around the world? I think it is, so I bought ALK, ARU and MOL today.

If however one should come to the conclusion, that we are facing a long term crisis, he should carefully look for bargains among the blue chips.

What I learn from reading is that a lot of investors failed to retain liquidity and. short hedging positions. This leads to the fatal thought "do I sell now in order to buy back even cheaper"

regards
Julia
 
notting said:
Only fear with that is that retail bricks and morter may only be good for apartments if the shopping trend sustains.
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I'm a mad online shopper I spend a bit of money online.....
and I can tell you brick and mortal stores is here to stay for a long time

it will be another force retailer has to deal with
but it wont kill brick and mortal stores..

Factor in the margin for online threat but dont discount the whole business
because of a threat...

and in a pro-long down turn you want retailers that own the properties
because the two most expensive thing for retailer are rent and labour

take rent out ...in recession you can get cheap labour.

Anyway take care when buying stuff, buy what you can afford to lose

PS: I bought HVN this morning so my watch my bias opinion :)
 
Looks like many punters are speculating that Uncle Ben will tell the world he's cranking up Uncle Sam's printing press tonight. The ride so far has been irrational, and the relief rally today is just as irrational. China's CPI number appears to have been ignored by many punters.

I'm too afraid to get smelly fingers right at the moment, so I'm heeding Confucius' advice and not picking any bottoms just at the moment.
 
I always thought AMP under $4 is decent, but havent done a proper analysis for a while
 
ROE said:
I'm a mad online shopper I spend a bit of money online.....
and I can tell you brick and mortal stores is here to stay for a long time

it will be another force retailer has to deal with
but it wont kill brick and mortal stores..

Factor in the margin for online threat but dont discount the whole business
because of a threat...

and in a pro-long down turn you want retailers that own the properties
because the two most expensive thing for retailer are rent and labour

take rent out ...in recession you can get cheap labour.

Anyway take care when buying stuff, buy what you can afford to lose
Click to expand...

I agree ROE. HVN is looking pretty cheap, at the current price it's retailing/frachising business is being valued at about $480mln. Bricks and mortar ain't going anywhere for a while. It's still tiny, and even in the US and UK which are far further down the online retailing path b&m still exists.
 
Julia said:
OK. Look forward to seeing you do this.


It's just a little bit different actually picking those buys and sells for that quick profit in real time. Seems so simple in hindsight, doesn't it.
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I agree with Julia here. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing. Having the confidence to wade in and take longs in a market that is being overwhelmed by panic is another thing entirely. Most times, it is better to wait for the dust to settle and then jump into the ones you have researched and are confident with. Just my opinion of course.

P.S. When I say "longs" I'm talking of buying, expecting the price to rise, even if you only hold them long enough to take a quick profit after brokerage.
 
I eat my words, I do actually have a little HVN and will be buying a little more tomorrow after seeing Gerry tonight on Current affair. Harvey Norman Big buys. Excellent.
Quote "I'm not expecting it to make much, a little bit" BS
He looked happier than I'v seen him in quite some time, he was even rubbing his hands together.
 
LifeChoices said:
My computer picked these stocks as having the biggest falls since 9-03-2009 to a few minutes ago

+-------+---------+
| code | change |
+-------+---------+
| VOR | -96.83% |
| HST | -89.73% |
| AYN | -89.55% |
| ERA | -82.45% |
| GNS | -67.97% |
| NUF | -66.29% |
| BSL | -62.42% |
| SIP | -56.25% |
| AWE | -55.51% |
| BMN | -53.57% |
| TAH | -52.7% |
| CVN | -50% |
| NXS | -47.5% |
| ALL | -33.73% |
| PRY | -31.07% |
| OMH | -30.45% |
| STO | -30.34% |
| CCC | -30% |
| TOL | -29.34% |
| SWM | -28.83% |
| PDN | -27.21% |
| BBG | -26.81% |
| CSL | -24.51% |
| AIX | -23.11% |
| CAB | -22.12% |
| OST | -21.35% |
| MMX | -21.01% |
| TTS | -18.63% |
| GFF | -18.5% |
| TLS | -16.31% |
| FXJ | -15.29% |
| WDC | -14.72% |
| SGM | -14.58% |
| FGL | -13.8% |
| PPT | -13.2% |
| QBE | -13.01% |
| HVN | -10.75% |
| SPN | -10.33% |
| SGT | -7.69% |
| AAX | -7.34% |
| DOW | -7.01% |
| WPL | -6.88% |
| IAG | -6.21% |
| ORG | -5.81% |
| TRS | -5.8% |
| WOW | -5.76% |
| APN | -5.73% |
| CPU | -5.37% |
| MTS | -5.13% |
| LEI | -4.23% |
+-------+---------+
Click to expand...

TAH should probably have an asterisk next to it - the demerger practically halved its SP.
 
I took a small average down into ABC just after the open @ 2.29 so in front on that one and sold out of 1 of my gold stocks at around 1.45 PM freeing up a 3 year old lump of cash, but the rally was under way so my low ball buy orders for IIN, KSC and CPU didn't get filled...no afternoon sell off.

Perhaps on Friday ill get lucky.
 
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