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Bottom Picking August 2011

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Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
Joined
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It is now time to put the gloves on mesdames et messieurs.

It is a thankless task, but someone has to do it.

QBE, CBA, FMG and TLS seem to me to offer the correct amount of : prior time stagnating in a sideways trend and/or the prospects of a jump once this silliness abates, with a combination of divies and expectation.

This is not an advice to buy but merely an attempt to garner information to relieve the burden of my cash and margin loot.

gg
 
TLS would be my pick there GG if I had any idea what I was talking about.

It has some good instalment warrants (TLSIOP, IOU and IZJ) for those that enjoy a bit of adventure with a dividend run up approaching.

Oh no, I just realised that I am bottom picking :eek:

(click to expand)
 

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Equally I make no buy/sell recommendations. But I'm tired of the gloom and doom threads that inevitably spring up at times like this, so I'll have a go.

When the dust settles, and I have no idea when that will be, I expect many stocks to provide excellent opportunities, and we all have our favourites.

LYC (REE) and NTU (HREE) are two, approaching long term support, and companies with a new age, tech necessary product to sell, in a tight world market. Would love to see these two merge, mutually beneficial.

AYN (silver), the sp stubbornly refuses to budge by much, but it's approaching support levels. And it's now transitioned into a producer.
 
This is the list of ASX200 shares that are trading below or close to their GFC low...

GNS
ERA
IFN
BSL
SIP
NUF
AWE
ALL
TPI
PRY
BBG
SWM
GFF
OST
TOL
QBE
CAB
HIL
FXJ
TLS
PPT
IAG
HVN
CSL
MTS
TTS
WOW
APN

Go pick for your life :)
 
May I add EQT (It's not top 200) they are small and pay a good fully franked dividend and manage a stock portfolio and performed beautifully during the GFC even though their share price got smashed.
If your fed up let em do it for you!
Love these iron gloves!
 
The ratio is "bargain hunters" : panicked sellers is definately < sellers.

Imo if there is any bounce it will be a short bounce where the buyers will get swallowed by the sellers, I will be looking for bargains in the coming weeks or months better to buy on the way up then try get the bottom right. Some shares may not recover as quickly as others.

Just my view
 
Just been looking at alot of shares.

Their lows for the day are significantly below their current price.

If you invest wisely, it would be pretty easy to make back any losses.

SEA for example, went to a low of 50, now at 57.5c. Thats 15% made there

Edit: now 59c -> almost 20%.
 
You could just about bet your life on Telstra and be sure that you will. at worst, get your money back if you hold it for seven years and the share price is 1c by then.
Riskless trade?
Did any one notice that guy in silicon valley who has invented this wireless thing that can transfer data proven - 100x potentially 1000x that can be done wirelessly at present and does not ramp up load as it is used!!!
Telstra has been investing full boar in wireless. Hmmm
When they anounced the NBN I thought that they had gone insane. Tax my God!
Not to mention our future fund!
 
I don't want to bottom fish just yet. I reckon the market has further to go.
Right now the ASX200 is like moving in lock step with S&P500. (Refer chart)
While ASX200 is now in the striking distance of the GFC bottom, S&P500 has
a long way to go yet. If the US Fed will not print the QE3 money, there is a very
high probability we will see that bottom again. ASX200 will even exceed it with the
Big Four banks tanking.
 

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My computer picked these stocks as having the biggest falls since 9-03-2009 to a few minutes ago

+-------+---------+
| code | change |
+-------+---------+
| VOR | -96.83% |
| HST | -89.73% |
| AYN | -89.55% |
| ERA | -82.45% |
| GNS | -67.97% |
| NUF | -66.29% |
| BSL | -62.42% |
| SIP | -56.25% |
| AWE | -55.51% |
| BMN | -53.57% |
| TAH | -52.7% |
| CVN | -50% |
| NXS | -47.5% |
| ALL | -33.73% |
| PRY | -31.07% |
| OMH | -30.45% |
| STO | -30.34% |
| CCC | -30% |
| TOL | -29.34% |
| SWM | -28.83% |
| PDN | -27.21% |
| BBG | -26.81% |
| CSL | -24.51% |
| AIX | -23.11% |
| CAB | -22.12% |
| OST | -21.35% |
| MMX | -21.01% |
| TTS | -18.63% |
| GFF | -18.5% |
| TLS | -16.31% |
| FXJ | -15.29% |
| WDC | -14.72% |
| SGM | -14.58% |
| FGL | -13.8% |
| PPT | -13.2% |
| QBE | -13.01% |
| HVN | -10.75% |
| SPN | -10.33% |
| SGT | -7.69% |
| AAX | -7.34% |
| DOW | -7.01% |
| WPL | -6.88% |
| IAG | -6.21% |
| ORG | -5.81% |
| TRS | -5.8% |
| WOW | -5.76% |
| APN | -5.73% |
| CPU | -5.37% |
| MTS | -5.13% |
| LEI | -4.23% |
+-------+---------+
 
alexc2005 said:
Just been looking at alot of shares.

Their lows for the day are significantly below their current price.

If you invest wisely, it would be pretty easy to make back any losses.
Click to expand...
OK. Look forward to seeing you do this.

SEA for example, went to a low of 50, now at 57.5c. Thats 15% made there

Edit: now 59c -> almost 20%.
Click to expand...
It's just a little bit different actually picking those buys and sells for that quick profit in real time. Seems so simple in hindsight, doesn't it.
 
skyQuake said:
Bottom's in imo, as of 2hrs ago :)
Click to expand...

Nicely picked (for today at least). :xyxthumbs

Now I wish I'd had one of those "boxes of cash" referred to in the "tanking" thread! :)

Could well see a short-term relief rally from here.

But I just can't help thinking "Danger! Remember 2008! This could be worse!"
 
I pick HVN for asset play
I reckon price is cheap, not as good as operator like JBH
but the price justified it

It has large properties portfolio worth Billion...
at this price u can withstand a few years decline earning
and no grow going forward and properties book at
book value going no where for decades...
 
baby_swallow said:
I don't want to bottom fish just yet. I reckon the market has further to go.
Right now the ASX200 is like moving in lock step with S&P500. (Refer chart)
While ASX200 is now in the striking distance of the GFC bottom, S&P500 has
a long way to go yet. If the US Fed will not print the QE3 money, there is a very
high probability we will see that bottom again. ASX200 will even exceed it with the
Big Four banks tanking.
Click to expand...

Actually S&P -10pts (-1%) from 10am
SPI up 150pts (+3%) from 10am

Definitely not lockstep atm.
 
SWM is the old WAN and is Down closer to 70%.
Divedend is expected to be reduced to concentrate on growth and debt reduction.
Bilionair Stokes is heavenly involved. They say you should never not bet against people like him. Even if he is nasty!
Longer term on that.
Got a bit
 
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