BOE - Boss Energy

[finicky]

The only uranium stock I have taken some interest in - because it is already pretty much set up and developed, ready to push the starter button - yet I didn't notice the recent share price move.

From Small Caps
May 8 2021

"As it advances its plans to become a first-mover uranium miner, Boss Energy has confirmed it has all necessary permits in place to resume operations at its Honeymoon project in South Australia.

The company undertook a review of all required approvals to mine, process, store, transport and export uranium from Honeymoon.

It confirmed it has all these at hand and that an enhanced feasibility study into the mine’s restart will be completed “in the coming weeks”".

Not Held

BOE All Data Quarterly periods

 

[finicky]

Occasionally I read or listen to something from Peter Grandich; maybe I should more often, as he'd be the first to tell you that he has a stellar record for picking major tops and bottoms of different assets <- but with some basis in fact if you accept the self advertised record linked

He was calling the biggest bull market in anything for Uranium back in Jan 2020. His chosen vehicle has been Cameco, he also mentions a U.S uranium miners etf for those who don't want to stock pick. I guess he would have liked BOE?

As an aside, a recent one from him I think says he is accumulating cash and is back into gold miners after, of course, picking a top and a significant low earlier in those and taking profits.

About his record
I am Great

Short Audio April 2020
Just the First Innings for Uranium

 

[finicky]

Not calling it but does BOE look like it could have a pullback here? It's making some long upper wicks and is at a prior high from years back.

All Data Monthly

 

[Cam019]

I really to start trading these patterns that I find. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback up to $0.145.

 

[Sean K]

Boss mentioned at 13.00 mins. If uranium is on the way up this will be a mine, again.

Boss Energy Ltd

Boss Energy Ltd

www.bossenergy.com

Nice rise over the past 8 months, probably following POU.

 

[Sean K]

Predictions of $60-70 POU down the track will make this a pretty valuable player.

 

[Beaches]

The problem remains in getting the uranium price to the levels needed for long enough for this to be profitable.

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[Sean K]

The problem remains in getting the uranium price to the levels needed for long enough for this to be profitable.

There seems to be an assumption/assessment from uranium analysts (that I've been listening to on You Tube) that $60 is the benchmark price for much of the old reactors to be turned back on. BOE have set that as the key level as well and factored that into it's feasibility study. I'm not sure how they get funding for the capex and restart prior to that price unless a bank is sold on the recovery story and takes the risk.

 

[Sean K]

Waiting for an opportunity to take a punt on this puppy. General feeling on uranium sprewkers on youtube was that the juniors ran ahead of themselves over the past 6 months, so waiting for an decent pull back. Although, if it's a longer term play, which I think uranium is, maybe it's time enough. This breakdown has me short term concerned though.

 

[Sean K]

Well, looks like the uranium speculators have seen an opportunity and started to buy again. BOE, PDN, BMN all found some support and ticked up. I don't know how much legs this has but longer term if there's a change in sentiment regarding nuclear energy then this puppy will be one of the next new/renewed uranium mines to start up. It's a bit of a punt I guess, but that's life.

 

[Sean K]

I think I've bought this about a year or two too late for major gains because a lot of an (supposed) future uranium price rises are factored in already. Not sure how much. Probably need Japan to re-start some reactors (maybe too soon) and some other countries to realise that big batteries and hydrogen won't be enough to power the world without FF. So, maybe I'm not too late. Just need another Fukashima and the story ends.

 

[finicky]

Boss Energy (BOE) at an interesting juncture here with the share price at 0.14 as that is the price of their March 2021 $60m capital raising. Placement was to buy a strategic U3O8 inventory to strengthen their negotiating standing for offtake and debt raising. Placement holders might get cold feet at this share price in a downtrend?

The chart looks negative to me and my bet would be for 14c to break.

Current spot $32.50 USD per pound? Their D&D presentation projects AIC of Honeymoon to be < $32 USD, so that doesn't suggest to me that they're in a position to press the go button.

2,278m shares on issue - yuck

Not held

 

[Sean K]

BOE been pretty quiet lately and hasn't made some of the big gains a few of the other juniors have since SPUT started buying uranium. Gone up a few cents I suppose but 18c a hurdle now.

While they're waiting for the POU to rise to a level they can commit to ramping up they're going to try and expand the resource which seems like a no brainer plan.

Hopefully make it up to the higher edges of the exploration target, but also find some really high grade areas to target for mining later on.

How much this ends up being worth once they get to mining again is anyone's guess. Speculation that SPUT is going to cause a rapid gain in POU is a little bit of wishful thinking I think. But, the supply demand metrics seem to point to mid-term price rises up to a point where these guys can start mining again and be making good profits. Long term bet for me.

 

[Sean K]

Yes, we know you will be the next Australian uranium producer as all you should need to do is blow off the cobwebs, give it a dust, and push the green button. Maybe I've overestimated how much of the old mine infrastructure was still in place ready to go...

 

[finicky]

Chart confounded me but still skeptical. Not something I would risk myself given view of general market precariousness. Maybe uranium will participate in a general asset blow off top - don't care, cash is only asset that excites me now. Boss of BOE candidly saying there's only one driver in spot which is Sprott Uranium Trust and so far utilities not stepping up with improved offers for contracted supply.

 

[Sean K]

Chart confounded me but still skeptical. Not something I would risk myself given view of general market precariousness. Maybe uranium will participate in a general asset blow off top - don't care, cash is only asset that excites me now.

I'm sure everything will be effected in your market bust scenario. Do you have a date on that? There was a lot of chatter about what SPUT would do to the market and U equities. Can't last too long imo, and may already be over. As I've said elsewhere though, 5 year plan for me.

 

[Sean K]

I was really hoping for some decent consolidation across the U space and expected them all to take the top blue arrow path, but they've all only taken a few days before reaching up again. My FOMO almost has the better of me but will be patient for a sensible pull back. Maybe I'm underestimating what's going on here.

 

[Sean K]

I think only PDN and LOT will be quicker and cheaper to restart than BOE of those companies on the ASX. About $80 and $60m respectively. BOE is around the $100m mark due some more significant upgrades. I'm not sure what price uranium needs to hit for the final investment decision to go full steam ahead with restart for BOE. In all the presentations I've read/watched the trigger point has been avoided. They might have to answer that soon. Maybe when they start lining up finances.

 

[Sean K]

I was really hoping for some decent consolidation across the U space and expected them all to take the top blue arrow path, but they've all only taken a few days before reaching up again. My FOMO almost has the better of me but will be patient for a sensible pull back. Maybe I'm underestimating what's going on here.

View attachment 130128

Now getting that consolidation I was expecting and hoping for after peaking at 35c. Was way overbought in the short term and very frothy. Not sure if that's a word. Had to take some profits on this and DYL but will probably add more once the dust settles a bit. I did have a 3-5 year plan on this so I'm going against my initial plan by selling into strength somewhat, but it was just going a bit nuts. Some weak support across 25c ish, so happy for it to track sideways above that level for a bit. Volume coming off so might be shaking out some of the short termers. Maybe a decent market correction will put it back to pre-liftoff levels in the coming months anyway.

 

[Sean K]

Unusual move from BOE today. Unfortunately missed the opportunity to top up on the dips as I was expecting even more consolidation as the MCs of these U juniors out of action had gone up considerably and the consolidation had some time to play out. Poor me.