BNB - Babcock & Brown

roland · 16 June 2008

well, the time frame is the absolute key - isn't it....

e.g. BBI, up 20% at one stage today - I did some mechanical bot trading and got back 1% of my BBP losses

what happens with a lot of us, is that we want quick gains in a short time frame, then if it goes sour we refuse to take a loss and we either buy to average down or the stock goes into the "bottom draw, long term basket"

I am still trying to get this right, gotta learn to take a loss on the chin and get out at the right time. This to me is the hardest part of trading - loss management.

eMark · 16 June 2008

Mr T

From what I have read, I believe I do qualify for at least 1-2 of the extra hurdles.

You have used the word "business". Remember I don't have an ABN. Are you using the word business to describe what I do as a "business", or are you assuming I am a business?

Also one of the points mentioned making a profit for at least the 3 out of the last 5 years. Does this mean overall profit for each year (ie profit minus loss resulting in overall profit)? If that is the case I made a greater loss than profit this financial year.

Re - The business have made $20,000 in income (if you sold $20,000 in your share trading business, this would be fulfilled).

What does this mean? I don't understand it properly.

Thanks Mr T.

Mr_T said:
Here's an interesting story about BNB from famous journalist Robert Gottliebsen

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Babcocks-deal-addiction-FMRBS?OpenDocument

The second example of the deal making culture of the group goes back to 2003.

An organisation of which I am not a beneficiary was looking at buying a substantial area of inner city land. Part of the land was subject to flooding, so any potential buyer had to do a lot of work to work out a way to use it.

My organisation hired people to do the work and we knew that others were doing similar work on the field as they considered making a bid. To calculate a value, we worked out the maximum any developer could pay. In the end we found the land did not suit our requirements, so we stepped back and discovered the developers still in the hunt had come to a similar view on maximum value.

However, I was stunned to find that Babcock jumped in and bought the land well above what we thought was the top value to a developer.

Because their people had not been on the ground, we knew they hadn’t done the flood assessment work. They had to catch up after the purchase and as a result the land was dormant for about two years. We are talking about a property worth less than $50 million, so it was not a make-or-break deal.

However, the transaction told me a number of things about Babcock in its early years. First, they were deal makers moving from one deal to the next. Second, while most of their deals might have been well researched, they were capable of rushing into a deal without doing the base work.

That culture makes it very hard to handle the change that has taken place in the group.

bunyip · 16 June 2008

MRC & Co said:
Or spreads.

But the big question is, what criteria did you use to 'find stocks that had recently begun new uptrends'? A % move from the low............a new higher high or higher low...........an uptrend over a given timeframe? It's not as simple as saying you just scan for stocks starting a new uptrend.

But I agree completely with the general idea. I use it myself when trading.

Running a computer software scan for suitable stocks or markets is just about the easiest part of trading.
There are numerous scan criteria you can use to find newly uptrending stocks....if your software has good scanning ability, and you have the knowledge to come up with suitable scan criteria to feed into it.
I don't propose to go into detail here, but just briefly, you can use things like moving averages, trend strength indicators like ADX, or Hull's ROAR indictor, (if it's included in your software), among others. Suffice to say you could use any of the criteria you mentioned, plus many you haven't mentioned.

MRC & Co · 16 June 2008

Yes, but the question was, what do (would) you use? To get on near the start of the oil or coal bull for example........

Personally, I use time.

AT LEAST consolidating (forming a traditional pattern) at a 3 month high.

However, I prefer the bull to have been underway much longer than that, 1 year +.

The higher the % move in that timeframe, the better.

Any break out of the pattern (preferably if volume in the pattern is favourable, for example, drying up into the flag) on high volume. Usually, if the trade has not moved my way in a couple days after breaking out, or hit my stop, I will exit my entire position.

Sorry off topic.

bunyip · 17 June 2008

MRC & Co said:
Yes, but the question was, what do (would) you use? To get on near the start of the oil or coal bull for example........

Personally, I use time.

AT LEAST consolidating (forming a traditional pattern) at a 3 month high.

However, I prefer the bull to have been underway much longer than that, 1 year +.

The higher the % move in that timeframe, the better.

Any break out of the pattern (preferably if volume in the pattern is favourable, for example, drying up into the flag) on high volume. Usually, if the trade has not moved my way in a couple days after breaking out, or hit my stop, I will exit my entire position.

Sorry off topic.

Yes.....off topic - detailing scan criteria is inappropriate on this thread.
You may wish to start a new thread specific to scans...perhaps you'll generate some discussion from those who wish to divulge their scan criteria, or are interested in learning what other traders are using.

jayinoz · 17 June 2008

Back to BNB topic- Good 6% open today......

All the news in the media has been highly negative yet this morning Sky news had more positive things to say. Also yesterdays financial review was not completely negative.

Sure they will not turn all this around in a few days but it is not in any lenders interest to perform a review. Remembering the lenders have not even called a review yet. Appartently they are looking to get the lenders to lower the review point, yet in doing this I hope this does not leave another target on the back of BNB.

Surely it would be in the lenders interest to remove any review. As they want BNB to be OK and if they keep up to date on payments; surely that is enough.

It like my bank have a review of my house assets, if the suburb I live in drops by X%. What does my lender care of the lowered value of my home, as long as I keep paying the repayments. Can someone pls explain this to me? Why do the lenders wish to trigger issues for a company when they have not defaulted on a payment?

jayinoz · 17 June 2008

Does anyone know if BNB will be giving out a dividend on the 30\6 this year?

To me BJT seems like very good value just before a dividend payout- is this trust directly related to BNB or an entity in its own right? B4 I buy in....

BNB heading towards $6 last I looked- good... now my $7 buy a few days ago does not look as stupid- yet who knows in the short term.

yuan84dk · 17 June 2008

jayinoz said:
Does anyone know if BNB will be giving out a dividend on the 30\6 this year?

To me BJT seems like very good value just before a dividend payout- is this trust directly related to BNB or an entity in its own right? B4 I buy in....

BNB heading towards $6 last I looked- good... now my $7 buy a few days ago does not look as stupid- yet who knows in the short term.

Me too, I entered at $7.7 as well. It is definitely a good thing that the market is stablising. But now, I just wanna cut some losses. Personally, $7.5 mark is hard to reach. People might buy now and take profit at that price...

jayinoz · 18 June 2008

Does anyone know the future Ex-dividend date for BNB?

We should be getting some information in the talks between BNB Management and their banks. Anyone heard anything to date?

Good luck to all BNB holders......

navjit6 · 18 June 2008

Dont know exactly but going from last year adn the dividend earlier this year it should be around the end of August!!

jayinoz said:
Does anyone know the future Ex-dividend date for BNB?

We should be getting some information in the talks between BNB Management and their banks. Anyone heard anything to date?

Good luck to all BNB holders......

barnz2k · 18 June 2008

gonna be a tough battle to get back up but hopefully BNB will be doing as much as they can to get some confidence back. mightnt get to $35 highs again but nice to see it still has peoples attention to move up %10 in a day..unfortunately 10% of $6 isnt same as %10 of $10...

jayinoz · 19 June 2008

Good news BNB selling Wind Energy for 3+ Billion. Maybe a good rebound especially when BNB announce their lenders are all OK.

They must change lower leverage in the medium term & get investor confidence back to get back in teens I feel.

Mr_T · 24 June 2008

I remember reading somewhere that at a recent Friday night drinks, Phil Green said the market has unfairly sold down BNB and it was undervalued.

He still doesn't get it.......it's always everyone else's fault, isn't it Uncle Phil?

Tysonboss1 · 26 June 2008

Mr_T said:
I remember reading somewhere that at a recent Friday night drinks, Phil Green said the market has unfairly sold down BNB and it was undervalued.

I think BNB is very much undervalued, even with all the current negative reports,

I mean a 9.9% dividend and 3% p/e,.... its simply madness.

They have already begun a plan to delevaged their balance sheet, and with so many projects in the pipline and such a diverse amount of incomes streams they will be ok,

I wouldn't expect a quick recovery, but I think i might buy some BNB shares and just put them in the bottom draw for a year or two.

Mr_T · 26 June 2008

Tysonboss1 said:
I think BNB is very much undervalued, even with all the current negative reports,

I mean a 9.9% dividend and 3% p/e,.... its simply madness.

They have already begun a plan to delevaged their balance sheet, and with so many projects in the pipline and such a diverse amount of incomes streams they will be ok,

I wouldn't expect a quick recovery, but I think i might buy some BNB shares and just put them in the bottom draw for a year or two.

If the "e" part of the p/e was genuine, I might agree with you. But when a substantial portion of your earnings are unreal (ie due to revaluing assets that have actually gone down in value), the p/e ratio needs to be taken with a pillar of salt.

BNB is stuffed. I pity the shareholders, but have no pity for Uncle Phil and co.

prana · 26 June 2008

Mr_T can you say this again when I saved up a larger pool of money? I need ppl like you to get in at cheap prices. Thanks dude.

wayneL · 26 June 2008

Tysonboss1 said:
I think BNB is very much undervalued, even with all the current negative reports,

I mean a 9.9% dividend and 3% p/e,.... its simply madness.

They have already begun a plan to delevaged their balance sheet, and with so many projects in the pipline and such a diverse amount of incomes streams they will be ok,

I wouldn't expect a quick recovery, but I think i might buy some BNB shares and just put them in the bottom draw for a year or two.

I'll bet London to a brick and Mombasa to a melon that those "earnings" (and probably dividend) are substantially lower next time they report.

Tysonboss1 · 26 June 2008

wayneL said:
I'll bet London to a brick and Mombasa to a melon that those "earnings" (and probably dividend) are substantially lower next time they report.

the EPS is much larger than the dividend so I don't think they will lower the dividend, and even if the earnings halved then thats still a price earnings of 6.

wayneL · 26 June 2008

Tysonboss1 said:
the EPS is much larger than the dividend so I don't think they will lower the dividend, and even if the earnings halved then thats still a price earnings of 6.

Doesn't that ring alarm bells for you?

Any forensic accountants like to have a stab at current earnings?

pilbara · 27 June 2008

Mr_T said:
...when a substantial portion of your earnings are unreal (ie due to revaluing assets that have actually gone down in value)...

can you give a concrete example of:

1. How Babcock & Brown uses this kind of valuation?

2. How a change in asset value is accounted as earnings? How can something which should appear on a balance sheet be transferred to a profit and loss statement?

BNB - Babcock & Brown

roland

eMark

bunyip

MRC & Co

bunyip

jayinoz

jayinoz

yuan84dk

jayinoz

navjit6

barnz2k

jayinoz

Mr_T

Tysonboss1

Mr_T

prana

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Tysonboss1

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

pilbara

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