Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BMN - Bannerman Energy

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captjohn said:
I'm an Eagle fan from Perth , a new member of ASF( yesterday),..........trading on & off for 10 years & been accumulating BMN since June 2006.
It's really great to read all your opinions over the past 9 months especially from chris 1983 ....I'm learning a lot from him. ....keep up the good work.
Like you guys I'm not selling my BMN ....it'll be a 'golden egg' ....like paladin....
I'll always regret about 4 years ago selling off 250,000 PDN when they hit ....20 cents :banghead: I got 'em for about 4 cents.sob sob.
Anyway from now on I'll be watching all your comments on bannerman as I have put 'all my eggs into one basket'
captjohn
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I bet 99.9% of shareholders who bought at those prices would've sold out by now. Only those who bought and either forgot about them or died still have them (those who dies wouldn't but it still be in their name...).
 
some ppl like me have come rather late to the party.

prolly the resource is better suited in a major's hands
 
Halba said:
some ppl like me have come rather late to the party.

prolly the resource is better suited in a major's hands
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I didnt forget about them..and I'm still alive..but I have sold along the way to free carry and also lock in profits. The 3 for 1 share split was a blessing to those in early. But anyway back to Halba's comment..you think BMN could be a prime target for takeover? They better take them over now then... before they get a chance to drill the resource out. The SP will be 10 bucks by the time someone comes in and makes an offer.
 
chris1983 said:
They better take them over now then... before they get a chance to drill the resource out. The SP will be 10 bucks by the time someone comes in and makes an offer.
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Sorry Chris, but this comment is PURE and ABSOLUTE BULLSH!T

How do you know how much U is under the ground when RIO/PDN/other suitors (like most mortals) need to see drilling results????

BMN needs some stunning results to maintain the current massive valuation

I hold a very small parcel in this so I am not 'jealous' or whatever criticism people will launch.
 
okay. Well if there is anything in the ground by the time they do find out its there they will be $10 a stock. They miles well make an offer now if they want to get Bannerman cheap. Figures are below but its all guesswork. Ive posted this before. Nathan McMahon obviously thinks they will go further with him buying shares in the company recently at 2.70.

Goanikontes alone is in excess of 22km for the strike length. Assume a width of 50 meters even.

Summary: 22000m strike x 50m width x 100m depth = 110,000,000 Cubic Meters


I found on a website that it is about 2.4 tonnes per cubic meter. So that comes to around 264,000,000 tonnes.

Lets say they have an average grade at 0.03. It equates to in excess of 79,000 T of uranium. Not bad when you compare it to Paladins resource. Paladin has a market cap close to 5 billion. It just shows where Bannerman can take the company.

Paladins Resource

Ore Reserve Estimate 32.2Mt of ore @ 0.07% (Measured & Indicated) (22,200t U3O8)

Total Inferred Resource 40Mt of ore @ 0.06% (23,800t U3O8)

The in ground value will be 158000000 pounds multiplied by the spot price of 75. This equates to around 11.85 billion dollars inground value off current prices and they believe this will continue to increase. Don’t forget this is all pretty conservative. You can pretty much lock these uranium prices in because there is going to be no slow down in demand for uranium. Talk about the best long term investment you possibly could find IMO.

Remember this is all in relation to the Goanikontes prospect and not including the additional anomolies on the epl such as the Rossingberg 11 Anomaly (R11) which has been shown to extend for a total of 15 kilometres :)

It is important to note this information from Carmichael research report released on the 26 September 2006

“The Goanikontes Anomaly A has been extended by an additional 1.5 km along strike, north of the Swakop River. In addition, a high tenor uranium anomaly is present on the eastern side of the Goanikontes Dome, in a similar structural position to both the Rossing and Valencia deposits. This anomaly was previously un-recognised and lends weight to the suggestion that the Goanikontes anomaly may be present around the whole nose of the dome, but is obscured by cover in the south. Spot uranium anomalies on the southern end of the dome support this view. This would have the effect of increasing the strike length of the Goanikontes Anomaly from 10 km to 22km.”

So we don’t know if the entire strike length of Goaniktones will be 22km..but even with a 10 km strike length there will be a lot of uranium there.
 
Ohh yeah..I must add..they could get half of what I had said and they would go to $10+ a share easily based off the amount of shares on issue..so what I said in regards to $10 per share isn't BS.

People would of been saying Paladin at $10 a share is BS too.
 
chris1983 said:
Ohh yeah..I must add..they could get half of what I had said and they would go to $10+ a share easily based off the amount of shares on issue..so what I said in regards to $10 per share isn't BS.

People would of been saying Paladin at $10 a share is BS too.
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No I'm happy for peeps to question and have some negative comments. Its healthy to spark debate and clarify things. Debate only spurs better understanding and promotes a real picture of the company.

Keep em coming I say.....Chris will just cut and paste previous posts to answer all your questions
 
chris1983 Ohh yeah..I must add..they could get half of what I had said and they would go to $10+ a share easily based off the amount of shares on issue..so what I said in regards to $10 per share isn't BS.


If it isnt BS - a euphemism could be "an optimistic guess".

Anomolies are not reserves, they are not resources, they are not bankable, they should be risked at about 5% of potential

You are extrapolating -they 'could' go to $100 - but it may not be supported by valuation metrics.


Some points:

How much dilution are you assuming to get the project (if there actually is one) to production?

At your $10 per share valuation - the existing 136,612,500 shares will make a $1.30 billion company (AWE, ADB, KZL)

Assuming they need $100m to drill out and do a full Bankable Feasibility Study then another 30,000,000 shares may be listed in the interim.

Assuming the BFS (probably completed around 2009) is good, they could need $1bn in cash to get the mine built.

Assuming the $1bn was raised with 30% equity another 100m shares may be issued. (who knows?)

You can see that by the time the reality of production hits (where your yardstick PDN is NOW) - we could well be in about 2012+ and there could be about 260,000,000 shares on issue and a lumping $700m debt facility.

Your $10 val would therefore price the future market cap at $2.6 billion (SEV, OST, SGM, MCG, MRE, BBI).

This $10 valuation in present vaue terms, using a reasonably high 12% discount rate, in five years woudl be the future equivalent of $20 per share or a $5 billion company (FXJ, TTS, RMD, BLD, CPU, ALN)

________________________________

To come up with your $10 val, what are your assumptions beyond extrapolating anomolies and applying PDN's metrics?

Mine life, production, grade, capital cost, U price, debt /equity split

What year would you expect production?

Do you think that the global prevalence of U exploration could effect the U price in the 10 years we will wait for any production?
 
BSD

Its ok everybody is entitled to their opinion, and just like many others it is a speculative investment. Its not a trading share IMHO

BMN has 250 historic drill holes, proving up the mineral over 1km strike length.

Theres no issue regarding the resource -its just the extent/depth (which also have been confirmed by new drills)

Regards

Halba.

of course target price depends on a number of factors including resource, but more importantly production rate, exploration potential, costs of production, time to production. The resource structure the way it is(open pittable) ticks all the right boxes here.


re : high valuation. Don't think very high? Mkt cap about $300m, assumes only 30 mil pounds (13,000t).
 
chris1983 said:
haha dont you own shares in Bannerman? Please sell on monday
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Thanks for your in-depth response

At least your type of analysis will provide a bigger idiot for me to pass the parcel to.

halba said:
BMN has 250 historic drill holes, proving up the mineral over 1km strike length.

There's no issue regarding the resource -its just the extent/depth (which also have been confirmed by new drills)

of course target price depends on a number of factors including resource, but more importantly production rate, exploration potential, costs of production, time to production. The resource structure the way it is(open pittable) ticks all the right boxes here.

re : high valuation. Don't think very high? Mkt cap about $300m, assumes only 30 mil pounds (13,000t).
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On what metrics does 30m/lb = $300m?

How did 10-20km of strike become 1km and we are still happy to extrapolate with 'no issue' about the resource?

Do you guys not believe you need a Bankable Feasibility Study ?

How many holes do you think it will take to get a bankable project?

When do you see production?
 
BSD said:
Thanks for your in-depth response

At least your type of analysis will provide a bigger idiot for me to pass the parcel to.



On what metrics does 30m/lb = $300m?

How did 10-20km of strike become 1km and we are still happy to extrapolate with 'no issue' about the resource?

Do you guys not believe you need a Bankable Feasibility Study ?

How many holes do you think it will take to get a bankable project?

When do you see production?
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Mcmahon bought 8 percent of the company at 2.70. Aside from everything else going for the company that is about all the information i need.
 
BSD said:
Thanks for your in-depth response

At least your type of analysis will provide a bigger idiot for me to pass the parcel to.



On what metrics does 30m/lb = $300m?

How did 10-20km of strike become 1km and we are still happy to extrapolate with 'no issue' about the resource?

Do you guys not believe you need a Bankable Feasibility Study ?

How many holes do you think it will take to get a bankable project?

When do you see production?
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So many questions....i like it (someone finally standing up to the happy family of BMN).....you seem to have an incredible interest in the stock for someone who only has a very small parcel......Can i take you back about three to four years to a company called Paladin who have had more or less a similar path in front of them.....its probably not a fair comparison because they are completely different companies and have absolutely nothing in common but the point being is they seemed to do alright and achieved their goals in a rather less helping environment. The moral to the story is the best case scenario is hello Paladin all over again or worst case just another Poseidon.......I think we all realise the inherent risks associated with an exploration company and its pitfalls trying to become something other then an exploration company.....its no rocket science that there is **** loads of obstacles ahead but you have to agree...so far so good (although still early stages)??? Lets cross each bridge when we get there and be vigilant.

p.s. if you need to find out in depth answers to your questions then ring an analyst or 2 who has written a report on BMN to get some figures and an opinion.

but i don't need to tell you that cause you seem intelligent enough to do that yourself and realise this is just a forum of punters and investors who share their opinions (drum up support for their favourite stocks and present their cases to the masses)
 
If it takes 1 month to assay a core then we'll be in production in the year 3000. :banghead:

The most optimistic scenario would be production in 3 years IMHO.

Lets say they get some cash in the kitty now and start to drill the $@#! out of the area this year, then they can probably get JORC estimations by end of year. They may even be able to start a PFS towards the end of the year depending on the results. They can probably start a BFS in year 2 say around March. You can assume 12 months to complete BFS. Don't forget if the project starts to look economically good they can even start mine construction during BFS. Optimistically they could get a mine up and running in say 12-15 months from end of BFS.

Also don't forget if the resource is anything like Rossings then it will be open pit mining. Don't think it will be a $1b mine construction :confused: . Don't discount the possibility they may even ship the ore to Rossings if there is sufficient capacity.

I don't have a price target for BMN as I don't believe we have sufficient information to do so. It's still speculative. But all I know is that if U price stays this high...based on the information we do have today, BMN is not "overvalued" IMHO.
 
I think it is a big of stretch try to compare BMN to PDN.

PDN grew with U price increasing from $7 to the current level because it started with a pretty defined resource already. While BMN started when U price at $30 something, and try to prove it has enough uranium. That is the beauty of the BMN which will reward the true believer with in depth research because its value grew with more good drill news together with U spot price. It is not a easy stock to hold if you have a weak hand.

But I won't dispute the destination might be the same $10+ stock one day if BMN can define enough U, and put into production before anyone else do.
 
LifeisShort said:
......its no rocket science that there is **** loads of obstacles ahead but you have to agree...so far so good (although still early stages)??? Lets cross each bridge when we get there and be vigilant...
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Very interesting discussion but I think another factor is the spot U price which is going up all the time. Since I started managing my own smsf I have seen U spot climb from the 40s to the 70s rather dramatically, and if you check HC (Ok there is sometimes some interesting stuff going on there) the discussion is that U spot Monday will be 80. How true that is will be easy to check come Monday. On kitcometals there is a link to a Bob Kirtley article http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kirtley/feb072007.html in which he speculates that U will be $200/lb "in the near future", whatever that vague term means. But I get the drift. U spot is not going sideways or down, it is going in one direction only - up! And that is why I bought back into BMN!
 
wow..I came home to a lot of posting..my post was based off assumptions. They have historic drilling over a 1km strike at Goanikontes but the anomoly extends to 22km. Its not the only anomoly on the license don't forget. Of course I know anomalies aren’t resources but I’m not like you..sitting back until it becomes a large resource. I bought in early expecting them to map out a huge resource. Anomolies and historic drill holes are all I had to go by when first buying into BMN. You can get a larger holding when they prove it's there and pay $6 a share.

BSD said:
How much dilution are you assuming to get the project (if there actually is one) to production?
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Not much. They don’t need to release many shares to raise 30 million dollars. They will get some money coming in from the exercised options and that should keep them going for some time seeing further increases in the SP. They may even get some early income from their swakop river tenements. If they hit uranium in there it would more than likely be processed through Paladins Langer Heinrich mine. It would be in the best interest for both of the companies I would think. Once again depends if there is anything there though and we are waiting on drilling results. This would be a bonus to the company because they seem to allready have excellent potential to have a world class resource at Goanikontes alone.

BSD said:
At your $10 per share valuation - the existing 136,612,500 shares will make a $1.30 billion company (AWE, ADB, KZL)
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1.3 billion dollar company..Paladin was a 1 billion dollar company with no production..its been a billion dollar company for quite some time now so what makes you think BMN cant repeat what PDN has done.

BSD said:
Assuming they need $100m to drill out and do a full Bankable Feasibility Study then another 30,000,000 shares may be listed in the interim.
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You talk as if 30,000,000 shares is so many.

Go have a look at the Placements made by PDN when they first started. There is a big difference. Bannerman can make placements more than likely in excess of $3 a share.

Your entitled to your opinion and hats great but to me my assessment of you is that you dont like to go into companies that can actually turn into something big. You don't have much faith. Dont just think Paladin will be the only uranium company to fly. Bannerman has allready done wonders and has had excellent returns for share holders. Heck if they didnt have the share split they would almost be $10 a share now and people would of probably though that would never happen.
 
Thanks everyone for the more detailed responses.

I think it makes more entertaining reading than one line blurbs offering massive price targets with limited reasoning.


It is very true you need to take a leap of faith, have steady hands and patience to make big $$$$ in mining shares.

Personally, I like to buy between Pre Feasibility and Bankable Feasibility - with the view to holding for production.

I guess my leap of faith is generally from a lower hight!

Regardless of project size, these companies in the past have typically had market caps of 35-100m.

BMN is now valued at 350m and that is a lot to pay for an explorer.

The current valuation is stretched due to uranium hype and I avoid buying hype

Remember that if uranium goes to $150 - it is only up 100% from here. The 1000% move from $7 to $70 is what created PDN.

Uranium is a very common substance I would add.

_________________________________________

BHP is planning on having annual output of Uranium from Olympic Dam of 15,000 tonnes!

PDN has reserves at Langer Heinrich of only 23,000tns

http://www.paladinresources.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/ProjectDescription.pdf

The total inferred resources for PDN is around 80,000tns.

Considering the cap of PDN is $4.4bn - the implied value of the U alone in Olympic Dam could well exceed the current MARKET CAP of BHP

I don't think the valuation of PDN is a very good yardstick for any stock.
 
hi BSD

you raise very valid points re: being a hype. I have to 100% agree with you. As normally looking at fundamentals, it is a hype, but certainly something we can make money from. Additionally, its better than dotcom where the U companies actually have a chance of making good money. one important point is that BHP's olympic dam can be the subject of regulatory delays, cost blowouts, labour shortages thus not enabling it to meet its timetable. Most aussie projects are a Joke. I don't hold paladin, but its revenues are going to be extremely high purely because of luck, and timing of the u price rise.

Another reason why U companies p/e is high is the ability to lock in 5-10 yr contracts at these high levels, ensuring certainty of revenue stream.

Moreover i would not compare BMN to PDN, but other similar junior/explorers in namibia listed on the TSX(canadian stock market).

Forsys Metals: About 30,000t U, but grades 200ppm- Market cap $400m.

Stage: JORC/Pre Feasibility. Production early 2009.

Uramin Ltd

: About 30,000t U reserves, but grade very low 120ppm. Inferred about 4 times this much(but may not all be mineable). Mkt cap $1400m. Stage: Bankable Feasibility Study. Note: it has a few other smaller African uranium projects(outside namibia)

Production 4Q 2008.

More importantly, both companies have been rapidly rising on the TSX, averaging rises of about 2% each day (500%+ a yr)

BMN is cheaper than both.

Proof of BMN's resources:

Anomaly A has been
outlined in over 250 historic drillholes and has two zones with strike lengths of at least 1.4km and 3km each.
The mineralisation has similar grades to Rossing and Valencia. Some of the more significant intersections from
these programs include:
• 50m @ 0.0457% U308
• 45m @ 0.0393% U308
• 46m @ 0.0443% U308
• 23m @ 0.0541% U308

Re: Mining studies. Doesn't have to wait until the full drill program complete. Once it establishes a resource from historical drills /confirmation (through modelling) it can start scoping studies. Also BMN can simply sell it to a 3rd party.

For comparison purposes, we have assumed Goanikontes has a 50Mt resource at 0.035% U3O8 for 38.6mlbs
U3O8. Bannerman’s share of this resource would be approximately 30.9mlbs.

At @ price of $2.70, Mkt cap fully diluted $350M. Ev/lb is $11/lb, but with plenty of "exploration upside"/blue sky. 50mT is conservative, as anomaly A is thought to be 200mt-350mT. Also its in favourable areas which allow u mining. forget u mining in australia- just heaps of delays, bureacratic bulldust.
 
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