BLU - Blue Energy

Jimminy · 20 June 2008

Converting Gigajoule to MCF = Multiply Gigajoule by *.95
so one Gigajoule equals .95 MCF

But one 1 TCF is generally talked about as 1000pj even though it is not quite correct.

There is a lot of wells (hundreds) to achieve those numbers stated by BUL.

But it is very promising given some of the flows Shariff said they are getting.

grace · 20 June 2008

Dukey said:
Gas in place estimates through..... a git quicker than expected.:

Prospective resources: >21 Tcf - which as far as I can work out should equate to a target of something in the region of 2000 to 2500 Petajoules. (not sure of the exact conversion rates between Tcf/Bcf and Joules for CSG - but roughly 1Bcf ~ 1Pj????? anyone ???? ).

This is for it's 100% owned tenements 814p 817p & 854p.

For other BUL tenemements - with less exploration data - they provide GIP figures of almost 19000 Bcf (~ 19000 PJ!!) - much of this is attributed to ATP813P - will investigate this one a bit more.

All in all pretty impressive figures - though essentially targets to be proved up with drilling - is my take on it all.

What do you guys reckon?

-Dukey -( holding BUL)

1 Tcf (trillion cubic feed) = 1000 PJ
So, 21 Tcf = 21000 PJ

This is massive, and the market does not seem to understand quite yet!

(just saw Jimminy's post - yes, he is more accurate)

YOUNG_TRADER · 20 June 2008

I saw BUL and thought hmmm looks cheap maybe the mkt missed this,

Then I checked the APPENDIX 3B and realsie there's about 500M shares on issue fully diluted which at 40c = $200m+ mkt cap

I don't know if thats expensive or not, but not as cheap as I though it may have been, then again 20TCF is a massive target and these guys are no doubt near QGC AOE SHG and others

Amazing sector performance

Dukey · 20 June 2008

Jimminy said:
Converting Gigajoule to MCF = Multiply Gigajoule by *.95
so one Gigajoule equals .95 MCF

But one 1 TCF is generally talked about as 1000pj even though it is not quite correct.

There is a lot of wells (hundreds) to achieve those numbers stated by BUL.

But it is very promising given some of the flows Shariff said they are getting.

Yup : to all above....
...so ATP 813P - the one with the biggest numbers attached is a tenement they havn't explored or spruiked much yet. It is in the Galilee basin - further to the NW - North of Longreach. Apparently Galilee energy have had some exploration success there - will have to check that out further.

Galilee energy themselves might be worth a look too - dunno anything about them.
In looking for conversion figures I also came across 'westside' (WCL) who have some farm-ins with SHG. Will check them out too..... much to do in CSG at the mo. and many opportunities to be had.

----EDIT: ahhh - I see - I lost a zero there somewhere... 21000PJ = !!!!

Dukey · 20 June 2008

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I saw BUL and thought hmmm looks cheap maybe the mkt missed this,

Then I checked the APPENDIX 3B and realsie there's about 500M shares on issue fully diluted which at 40c = $200m+ mkt cap

I don't know if thats expensive or not, but not as cheap as I though it may have been, then again 20TCF is a massive target and these guys are no doubt near QGC AOE SHG and others

Amazing sector performance

YT & Grace: Yep (again!) - has been an amazing ride recently for CSG and UCG.

I think the thing with BUL is that they are a fair way behind the big players exploration wise - the figures out today are pretty much just targets....but when they get stuck in and prove up some resources ... then LOOK OUT!!!

grace · 20 June 2008

Dukey said:
YT & Grace: Yep (again!) - has been an amazing ride recently for CSG and UCG.

I think the thing with BUL is that they are a fair way behind the big players exploration wise - the figures out today are pretty much just targets....but when they get stuck in and prove up some resources ... then LOOK OUT!!!

I just got my initial holding today in this one. Just thought I'd mention that OZ Minerals (Zinifex/Oxiana) is looking to expand into coal seam gas in Queensland. To my knowledge, this is the only major size one that isn't tied up with anyone yet, and still in the early stages of growth. What do you all think about who is left out there without a dancing partner?

Jimminy · 20 June 2008

YOUNG_TRADER said:
but not as cheap as I though it may have been, then again 20TCF is a massive target and these guys are no doubt near QGC AOE SHG and others

Dukey is correct, these guys are on a different timeline to others.

But the key is the % of acreage they have retained 100% rights of.....practically all of it.

As opposed to all of the others doing farmouts.

The reason I believe this is the key? - we will be in a position to do a farmout to another party once we have proved up resources and someone is willing to buy a share of those inground resources as a $/gj far greater than what we have witnessed in the past few months.

cheers.

Dukey · 20 June 2008

Market hasn't reacted very positively.
- could be just the general sentiment around atm.
- could be that further down the report they have said that some other BUL tenements of significant size are not expected to be prospective for CSG for various reasons (near bottom -page 4 and elaborated further down).

But still - the estimates provided are impressive.... bring on the exploration..
- and yep again - BUL must be one of the biggest tenement holders who could use a more advanced partner. Who it might be is anyones guess??? but I'm still thinking QGC need more land/gas.

Dukey · 20 June 2008

Just trying to get a better feel for what the figures released mean...

on Page 4 the total Gas in place (Bcf ) estimates are:

11598 (-P90 = lowest estimate)
21284 (-P50 = 'most likely' estimate)
35761 (-P10 = high estimate)

In terms of recoverable gas - sources say that around 60-70% is a good figure - (USA; Sydney gas; bowen basin) BUT it might be prudent to apply a VERY conservative 30% recovery factor.
Applying this to those figures above:

11598 (-P90) X .3 = 3480 Bcf
21284 (-P50) X .3 = 6385 Bcf
35761 (-P10) X .3 = 10728 Bcf

remember 1Bcf =~ 1 PJ.

So.... even if we take the MOST conservative Low GIP estimate multiplied by the VERY conservative recovery rate of 30% - we have a figure of 3480 Bcf (=~ PJ).
Using the Most likely GIP X less conservative recovery rates -.... well the figures are huge.

To put this in perspective:
QGC currently have 2P (proven and probable) resources of 2370 PJ.
AOE have current 2P of 791 PJ.

Of course - BUL still has to do the drilling to prove up these numbers, and the apparent write-off of some tenements for CSG is dissappointing, but it seems they should do very well when they start proving & producing.

-good luck all, gotta go -Dukey

insidertrading · 25 June 2008

Announcement out - Drlling Update Azure Area 817P

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00854100

Please excuse my ignorance here, could someone please enlighten me on what are the measurement / geological implications in the announcement is referring to?

Cheers

Dukey · 25 June 2008

insidertrading said:
Announcement out - Drlling Update Azure Area 817P

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00854100

Please excuse my ignorance here, could someone please enlighten me on what are the measurement / geological implications in the announcement is referring to?

Cheers

Suggest you read through the thread and recent company presentations. 6m coal just confirms what other holes have found there - not a great thickness, but gassy and apparently useful nonetheless.
-dukey
(holding)

Jimminy · 25 June 2008

you have to remember there is a offer from BG at the moment for Origin - this is the reason BUL has crept up a little over the last few days.

Blue has permit areas adjoining Spring Gully and Fairview - and the market is expecting a higher bid from BG....

BG has a pretty obvious strategy of trying to soften the price expectations at present.

Once BG get serious then Blue Energy will get a nice lift imo.

Been some good capping going on with this stock that gives me a 50c medium term target.

cheers.

nioka · 4 July 2008

BUL has gone into a trading halt, pending an announcement. The way the SP has dropped in the last few days it seems to indicate some "not so good" news. No long list of buyers or sellers in the quotes so there is not a lot of speculation one way or another. My guess is a new issue to raise more funds which may dilute the shares then again it may be a takeover. Anyone have any more wild guesses?

Dukey · 4 July 2008

nioka said:
BUL has gone into a trading halt, pending an announcement. The way the SP has dropped in the last few days it seems to indicate some "not so good" news. No long list of buyers or sellers in the quotes so there is not a lot of speculation one way or another. My guess is a new issue to raise more funds which may dilute the shares then again it may be a takeover. Anyone have any more wild guesses?

Dunno - I think they had $28Mill at end of march quarter (see my post june 2nd) so I would've thought that would be enough to keep the drilling happening.
----------------
Edit: investigating - something to do with major shareholder - Chimaera Capital - who are NOT listed as major shareholders on the BUL website - but comsec has them buying 15.5% about a year ago.
- will dig further...
-dukey

Dukey · 4 July 2008

Mmm not sure what to make of this.... Chimaera has a close rel. with ANZ. (see this...)

http://www.chimaeracapital.com/cfgmr.pdf

but notice the name at the bottom of this... Mr Nick Stretch is a director of BUL and also part of Chimaera management... dunno ... are there red flags here - or is it just because they hold 15%.... Here's hoping they havn't been margin called or something !?
- guess we'll find out next week!

grace · 4 July 2008

Dukey said:
Mmm not sure what to make of this.... Chimaera has a close rel. with ANZ. (see this...)

http://www.chimaeracapital.com/cfgmr.pdf

but notice the name at the bottom of this... Mr Nick Stretch is a director of BUL and also part of Chimaera management... dunno ... are there red flags here - or is it just because they hold 15%.... Here's hoping they havn't been margin called or something !?
- guess we'll find out next week!

Oh dear, oh dear. Don't think I want to dig any further. ANZ appointed receivers to Primebroker Securites - part of the Chimaera Financial Group. Seems us shareholders are the last to find out going on the selling that has been happening!

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-to-Primebroker-Securities-G885H?OpenDocument

Dukey · 4 July 2008

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ANZ-scraps-Chimaera-plans-G48GT?OpenDocument

Here's the problem.... - ANZ has withdrawn funding support for Chimaera Capital.
What it means for BUL I don't know.
Presumably - they may have to sell down or out of BUL creating downward sp pressure.... not sure...

comments folks.....??

Dukey · 4 July 2008

grace said:
Oh dear, oh dear. Don't think I want to dig any further. ANZ appointed receivers to Primebroker Securites - part of the Chimaera Financial Group. Seems us shareholders are the last to find out going on the selling that has been happening!

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-to-Primebroker-Securities-G885H?OpenDocument

yES - It would appear that 'ANZ nominees' = Chimaera - or at least part of it does. Bit dodgy I think to hide shareholders behind nominees or holding co's or whatever the relationship.

BUT - at the end of the day the BUL assets are not going anywhere. Maybe some short term turmoil and hopefully thats all.

Dukey · 7 July 2008

Article in the australian provides some more background... to the BUL-Chimaera-ANZ problem.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23978088-5012439,00.html

looking forward to a solution.

grace · 7 July 2008

Dukey said:
Article in the australian provides some more background... to the BUL-Chimaera-ANZ problem.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23978088-5012439,00.html

looking forward to a solution.

I'm more than a little disappointed in myself for not seeing Chimaera in there as a substancial holder. I certainly would not have bought it had I seen this. I knew chimaera were close to falling over. However, Blue Energy should have been put in TH on 30/6/08 when ANZ pulled the pin on the funding IMO. A lot of people knew of the connection and sold before the TH! I didn't. Very cranky at myself!

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