BLD - Boral Limited

[Ken]

As long as the 34 cent dividend is kept, these levels are good buying.

Subs $6.00 would get the takeover talk happening.

PE ratio is still fairly priced.

I think James Hardie is a better stock than Boral.

But I guess its like picking one of the banks....

Everyone has different opinions.

 

[vishalt]

It's dropped to major support level..

Boral is fundamentally a pretty good business, I mean sooner or later more land will have to be released in Australia and there will be a reversal about housing in the US (the rate cuts should help).

 

[YELNATS]

As long as the 34 cent dividend is kept, these levels are good buying.

Subs $6.00 would get the takeover talk happening.

PE ratio is still fairly priced.

I think James Hardie is a better stock than Boral.

But I guess its like picking one of the banks....

Everyone has different opinions.

Anyone notice how similar the sp performance of both BLD and JHX have been since about July? It's uncanny and even now the sp prices are vitually identical.

However, BLD has the better dividend yield, which is fully franked and the better pe ratio.

 

[michael_selway]

As long as the 34 cent dividend is kept, these levels are good buying.

Subs $6.00 would get the takeover talk happening.

PE ratio is still fairly priced.

I think James Hardie is a better stock than Boral.

But I guess its like picking one of the banks....

Everyone has different opinions.

Hm not bad, although technically its dropping

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 49.9 48.9 56.1 67.3
DPS 34.0 34.0 35.7 38.5

thx

MS

 

[Ken]

Well Boral bounced today.

Should be interesting to see where Boral finds a bottom.

I guess with any cyclical stock, do you buy when times are rough? Or when they are good?

Boral has a monopoly on the market really.

 

[edvisor]

Ken, it depends on how much patience you have.

I will be waiting (perhaps to my own detriment) at least until after the next couple interest rate cut in the US.

However, judging from the SP and trading activity - it looks to have bottomed at around current prices. (its absorbed both a profit and broker downgrades in its stride and is still standing firm even with the $US at long term lows against other major currencies).

Still, it will need some major shift in sentiment or a takeover rumour to go onwards and upwards.

 

[DionM]

Well BLD continues to drop.

Would have thought a change of govt and the infrastructure spending attached to it (esp in SE Qld) would have brought about BLDs fortunes.

Perpetual are also a recent major shareholder, buying in at relatively high prices.

I'm guessing US Housing worries is what's driving BLD down?

At current prices the dividends yield is quite reasonable.

Looking at the chart you have to go back to mid-2005 to find the stock at these levels (oh how it has fallen from it's $10 highs). Hard to work out where support might lie - maybe $5-$5.50 but that's from around last 1/4 of 2003 is about the only place I can see support?

Recently history tends to indicate that perhaps we will see an upswing in prices (like the last rise and fall from 05-06, so maybe this is near the bottom of the cycle? Though it has dropped below its 52wk low now.

And amazingly, BLD and JHX still follow each other surprisingly well.

 

[bigdog]

Well BLD may rise again now!!

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Building-materials-stocks-climb/2007/12/07/1196812995008.html

Building materials stocks climb
December 7, 2007 - 2:40PM

Shares in Australian building materials companies with exposure to the American housing market jumped on Friday after US President George Bush announced a mortgage relief package to help 1.2 million distressed home owners.

Shares in building materials company James Hardie Industries NV, which derives nearly 80 per cent of its revenue from the US, gained 19 cents or three per cent to $6.47 on the Australian stock exchange.

The rise is in stark contrast to the steady decline of the stock since the sub-prime mortgage meltdown began mid-year, falling from $8.90 on 19 July.

Boral Ltd, which also has US exposure, gained 12 cents or 1.9 per cent to $6.39, while CSR Ltd rose 11 cents or 3.7 per cent to $3.06.

ABN Amro Morgans director of equities in Brisbane Bill Chatterton, said the gain in building materials stocks was linked to the mortgage relief announcement in the US overnight.

"It (the announcement) affects housing stocks around the world," Mr Chatterton said.

"You would have to say there is a link there."

Mr Chatterton said it was difficult to tell whether the rise would be repeated next week.

"(On Monday) it could all be different, but you have got today a knee jerk reaction on that."

Other building material stocks to rise today included Fletcher Building Ltd, which was up 19 cents or 1.9 per cent to $10.30, while Brickworks Ltd gained nine cents to $13.10.

As part of the US deal, US Treasury officials with major industry participants would help struggling homeowners refinance sub-prime adjustable-rate loans or freeze the current interest rates for five years, Mr Bush said.

The program was unveiled amid fears a rising tide of home loan defaults would lead to a surge in repossessions and have a cascading economic impact.

The announcement led the Dow Jones US home construction index to gain 13 per cent - its biggest one-day jump in at least two years.

 

[3MT]

Picked some up on the close today. I've taken the view that housing stocks have bottomed for now (based on policy announcements and broad recovery of housing stocks in the US). It will be a while before we see actual recovery in the US and NSW but stock prices factor in future expectations.

In case I'm wrong and this happens to be a dead cat bounce, I've got some got my trusty stop loss built in.

 

[watsonc]

Maybe you're right, but be careful. Bottom pickers more often than not end up with smelly fingers!

But your stop loss should do the trick.

 

[3MT]

I normally wait for a sign of recovery, so I rarely buy at the lowest price unless I get lucky.

You are right bout trying to pick the bottom in general. Especially with stocks that have made a substantial profit downgrade, because things normally get worst before they get better.

 

[3MT]

time to eat some humble pie. stop loss triggered. Looks to be a dead cat bounce after all....for now. Although JHX is holding up well.

Hate taking losses.

 

[SGB]

I have been shorting this one for a while now (sorry long-term investors) but I'm just starting to get some signals that it might be starting to turn around.

It’s probably not the best time to be calling a major trend reversal but I do see the classic triple bottom and the 50% retracement is holding up quite well. Also the lows are a wee bit higher.

The $6.30 mark will have to be broken and substained if there is any substance to this patten though, which may be called a breakout, therefore I'll be on the sidelines watching closely.

These thoughts are only my opinion though as anything is possible / probable.

SGB

 

[So_Cynical]

Boral under $2.50 today for the first time in 8 years....i know a guy at work who opened
his first broking account just so he could buy into this....couldn't help but notice the
similarity's in the Boral and CSR charts...similar industry's i suppose, both down
around 73% from there 2 year tops, similar Market caps too.

Anyone care to have a go at picking bottom?

 

[wanlad1]

Shorted today lets see how this one goes


Weekly chart break down

Not exactly on the brokers hot list

U.S SPX looks to travel further south tonight

 

[So_Cynical]

(5th-March-2009) Boral under $2.50 today for the first time in 8 years....i know a guy at work who opened
his first broking account just so he could buy into this....couldn't help but notice the
similarity's in the Boral and CSR charts...similar industry's i suppose, both down
around 73% from there 2 year tops, similar Market caps too.

Anyone care to have a go at picking bottom?

Always surprises me how some of these really big, safe stocks seem to get almost totally overlooked on this forum, the last time i posted in this thread (2 posts up) it turned out to be about a week before the market bottom for BLD and many many other stocks.

Coincidence...of course.

Today BLD caught my eye again (just as it did in early 2009) as the stock just seems to be trading at a ridiculously low price - all things considered....Boral has operations in over a dozen country's, very manageable debt, and multi currency exposure with a gross yield of close to 6% at today's price.

One of the few Aussie international success story's....with shares selling at 'end of the world' prices.
~

 

[skc]

Always surprises me how some of these really big, safe stocks seem to get almost totally overlooked on this forum, the last time i posted in this thread (2 posts up) it turned out to be about a week before the market bottom for BLD and many many other stocks.

You know exactly why big caps don't get the same following. With small speculative shares, people can dream that they found the next FMG, Apple or BHP. With big caps, their dreamy assumptions have to rely on every Australian owning 4 properties or something like that to net a 10-bagger...

Today BLD caught my eye again (just as it did in early 2009) as the stock just seems to be trading at a ridiculously low price - all things considered....Boral has operations in over a dozen country's, very manageable debt, and multi currency exposure with a gross yield of close to 6% at today's price.

One of the few Aussie international success story's....with shares selling at 'end of the world' prices.
~

IMO BLD is nothing more than a play on the overall economy, and probably a poor proxy at that with company specific risks. If one was to take a position on the overall economy I'd buy Big 4 (better yield) and BHP/RIO over any of the 'smaller' big caps.

Unless of course there is something BLD is doing that will allow it to outperform the overall economy. But at present it hardly outperforms James Hardie (the one with all the asbestos and tax issues).

 

[McLovin]

Today BLD caught my eye again (just as it did in early 2009) as the stock just seems to be trading at a ridiculously low price - all things considered....Boral has operations in over a dozen country's, very manageable debt, and multi currency exposure with a gross yield of close to 6% at today's price.

One of the few Aussie international success story's....with shares selling at 'end of the world' prices.
~

I'd be interested in why you find BLD so compelling. From what I see it's revenue and EPS hasn't moved in 10 years, it's ROE is paltry and it's capital intensive. That it has used shareholder funds instead of debt is probably the only thing it has going for it.

 

[Chasero]

BLD has a really nice down trend.

Going to short this baby soon.

 

[tech/a]

BLD has a really nice down trend.

Going to short this baby soon.

I just love humor.